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Rainshadow

Meteorological Autumn Discussion, Can You Smell The Crispness In The Air?

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Here comes some more Barney and man cold for Tony Sunday into next week on the gfs 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here comes some more Barney and man cold for Tony Sunday into next week on the gfs 

IMG_1204.PNG

I am hugging the ggem, but just in case, heading to Caribou.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

I am hugging the ggem, but just in case, heading to Caribou.

You will hug the coldest model and like it

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You will hug the coldest model and like it

Well now that it is rounding into cold season form, might as well say, you will hug the GFS and like it.

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well now that it is rounding into cold season form, might as well say, you will hug the GFS and like it.

BTW forgot to look at the running tally when I computed the weeklies averages, but November is now below normal for the month @ PHL.

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Just now, Rainshadow said:

BTW forgot to look at the running tally when I computed the weeklies averages, but November is now below normal for the month @ PHL.

.5 through yesterday 

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That was big time shift in the eps h5 setup as a whole for next week and beyond. Would set it aside right now until another run backs it up, but that Aluetian ridge/trough near west coast is a PITA. 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That was big time shift in the eps h5 setup as a whole for next week and beyond. Would set it aside right now until another run backs it up, but that Aluetian ridge/trough near west coast is a PITA. 

What I mean by this is, the eps made a drastic shift in the h5 setup. Much more of a trough out west now which starts flooding the country with Pacific air. Remember this morning I posted how they were trending towards more of a PNA spike. Well that pna spike protected the country from Pacific air. This run did a complete 180. With the convoluted setup with all the blocking across the top it's giving models a fit as to where to stick troughs/ridges. So in general, I'd toss this until other runs back it up. 

DOijxVuU8AADm1W.jpg

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

What I mean by this is, the eps made a drastic shift in the h5 setup. Much more of a trough out west now which starts flooding the country with Pacific air. Remember this morning I posted how they were trending towards more of a PNA spike. Well that pna spike protected the country from Pacific air. This run did a complete 180. With the convoluted setup with all the blocking across the top it's giving models a fit as to where to stick troughs/ridges. So in general, I'd toss this until other runs back it up. 

 

This is kind of what I mean here. The ridge position over the Aleutians hasn't changed one bit, been there for months. That big trough over the Pacific and PAC NW looks way to smoothed out. Either the big trough is going to be over the west coast or it's going to be further offshore. With how that Aleutian ridge is setting up, the further offshore trough makes more sense here. What probably is occurring is their is disagreement among the individual eps as to where the trough placement is. But with that Aleutian ridge setup, it argues for the trough to be further west. So my thoughts are, those low hgts on the pac nw is being over smoothed due to disagreement while the mean trough is further west out over the ocean. This in turn, pulls everything back west. 

eps_z500a_noram_29.png

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is kind of what I mean here. The ridge position over the Aleutians hasn't changed one bit, been there for months. That big trough over the Pacific and PAC NW looks way to smoothed out. Either the big trough is going to be over the west coast or it's going to be further offshore. With how that Aleutian ridge is setting up, the further offshore trough makes more sense here. What probably is occurring is their is disagreement among the individual eps as to where the trough placement is. But with that Aleutian ridge setup, it argues for the trough to be further west. So my thoughts are, those low hgts on the pac nw is being over smoothed due to disagreement while the mean trough is further west out over the ocean. This in turn, pulls everything back west. 

eps_z500a_noram_29.png

That matches up with the GFS,CMC ensembles. Euro overdoing - PNA. 

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The gefs and geps would offer some chance of wintry weather. The eps look like a big brown turd, so much zonal flow in response to the deep trough right by the west coast. 

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The gefs and geps would offer some chance of wintry weather. The eps look like a big brown turd, so much zonal flow in response to the deep trough right by the west coast. 

Neither model backing down. GFS wants to keep the pna positive, while euro/EPS crashes the coast and boots the ridge east flooding us with PAC air. 

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10 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Neither model backing down. GFS wants to keep the pna positive, while euro/EPS crashes the coast and boots the ridge east flooding us with PAC air. 

Not only that, Euro is bringing the zonal back even faster (or lets just say, its not leaving it out there at day 13 each day).  The NAEFS cold percentages are lower today than they were yesterday (or the day before).  Pretty much has the Thanksgiving time cold as a given, but after that the inference is pointing to a timing compromise.

Bias corrected GEFs does start leaking oil after the 24th or so with the teleconnections, but like anything beyond day 10, if its day 10 tomorrow and day 9 the day after tomorrow, then maybe a correct trend.

4indices.png.cfa83450d8567dea66c9cd2cbf978aea.png

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Not only that, Euro is bringing the zonal back even faster (or lets just say, its not leaving it out there at day 13 each day).  The NAEFS cold percentages are lower today than they were yesterday (or the day before).  Pretty much has the Thanksgiving time cold as a given, but after that the inference is pointing to a timing compromise.

Bias corrected GEFs does start leaking oil after the 24th or so with the teleconnections, but like anything beyond day 10, if its day 10 tomorrow and day 9 the day after tomorrow, then maybe a correct trend.

4indices.png.cfa83450d8567dea66c9cd2cbf978aea.png

 

 

From twitter :

That's an UUUUUGLY look. Canada starts to torch, polar air gets pushed back out. Pray it's wrong. 

 

IMG_7533.JPG

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

From twitter :

That's an UUUUUGLY look. Canada starts to torch, polar air gets pushed back out. Pray it's wrong. 

 

IMG_7533.JPG

This has been the issue all along, that if the flow deamplifies over the Pacific, -nao would essentially be blocking maritime air.  Even without the next step the meridional flow brings warm air into Canada.  The difference between the GFS & Euro in particular is the latter really retrogrades the extreme cold into Alaska and beyond while the GFS leaves it lingering waiting for the next sfc high to bring it south.  Neverwind Caribou, I'm heading to Baffin island for the Thanksgiving Weekend!

 

 

ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png

gem_T850_namer_41.png

gfs_T850_namer_41.png

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From what I can see the difference between the 2 is the handling of tropical convection. Euro wants to bring this into phase 3

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

here is your associated h5 look for phase 3 in NOV, pretty darn close ay?

z500_p3_11_1mon.png

Here is the gefs, they bring it into phase 1

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

Here is phase 1 look in Nov, close, not exactly how it's showing it

z500_p1_11_1mon.png

In my eyes, euro is correct with its MJO. Going off roundy plots, this is clearly in phase 3

2017.png

 

 

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On 10/24/2017 at 6:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

So we have a big battle for how the pattern plays out for first half on NOV. We have the MJO going into phase 7 right now, than into phase 8 before going into the COD then phase 2 as it stands now. Phase 7 for oct features somewhat of a southeast ridge with most of the cold in center of the country. By Nov phase 8 is a cooler pattern with best chance of colder in the northern plains and New England. Phase 2 has a higher correlation here for cold. Effects from phase 2 wouldn't be felt till probably the middle of November. So going just off the MJO, it's a back and forth pattern, favoring warmth a little. 

If we then look at the GLAAM it's forecasted to dive pretty strongly into Nina phase, which promotes a -PNA and ridge on the east coast. Fighting that though, we have another recurving Typhoon next week. That in turn causes a wavebreak in the Pacific and pops a strong -epo look again. Which would dislodge any cold in Alaska and send it south into the US.  It does depend on where this ridge forms too. If it's out in the Bering Sea then its the West and center of country for cold. If it's over Alaska mainland with trough in Bering Sea then its center of country into the east. 

The big low that is suppose to form this weekend is going to create a big upper level low that migrates northward towards the NAO region. So we won't get any help from nao area in terms of blocking for a colder pattern. In contrary though. The big -epo look that could form may push up into the north pole displacing the surface PV on our side of the globe down towards Baffin island and the statospheric PV towards Scandinavia. So we get help there from a -ao. This is a wave 1 hit on the stratosphere arguing for a colder/gradient like pattern with a fight between se ridge and flow around the PV. We don't get much help from the pna region due to the low GLAAM state, so the se ridge will be around too. 

For now I like my seasonable to slightly above  pattern for the east for the first half of NOV. But I think there is a threat it could go below normal if the -epo pops in the right spot and keeps getting reinforced by tropical convection induced wave breaks in the Pacific. I don't see a torch type pattern though, thats for sure. 

Not a horrible forecast considering this was posted oct 24th. A little off on timings but not bad. The mjo wave did enter phase 2, but weakly, phase 3 is where it went to town. 

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37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

From what I can see the difference between the 2 is the handling of tropical convection. Euro wants to bring this into phase 3

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

here is your associated h5 look for phase 3 in NOV, pretty darn close ay?

z500_p3_11_1mon.png

Here is the gefs, they bring it into phase 1

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

Here is phase 1 look in Nov, close, not exactly how it's showing it

z500_p1_11_1mon.png

In my eyes, euro is correct with its MJO. Going off roundy plots, this is clearly in phase 3

2017.png

 

 

When I start seeing an MJO outlook that just cuts diagonally across the circle of death (yes I am talking to you GFS) I want to go take a cold shower and repeatedly wash my eyes out.  I guess it fits, but with the mjo being outlooked so weak (maybe Roundy abit stronger, hard for me to tell with his scale), have to wonder what is the base state this November?  I would have thought going off of ssta it'd be a trof in the central conus, but that's not happening.  

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Not a horrible forecast considering this was posted oct 24th. A little off on timings but not bad. The mjo wave did enter phase 2, but weakly, phase 3 is where it went to town. 

Not bad at all.  Just work on your timing. ;)

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

When I start seeing an MJO outlook that just cuts diagonally across the circle of death (yes I am talking to you GFS) I want to go take a cold shower and repeatedly wash my eyes out.  I guess it fits, but with the mjo being outlooked so weak (maybe Roundy abit stronger, hard for me to tell with his scale), have to wonder what is the base state this November?  I would have thought going off of ssta it'd be a trof in the central conus, but that's not happening.  

Going off the Roundy plots, the base state seems like phases 3-6 and then somewhere in 8-1? is that what you get?

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Going off the Roundy plots, the base state seems like phases 3-6 and then somewhere in 8-1? is that what you get?

Yeah with the mjo, but in the mid lats I am 😦 .  

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8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah with the mjo, but in the mid lats I am 😦 .  

turn that frown, upside down

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

turn that frown, upside down

I was looking for an unsure emoticon on this tablet, I couldn't tell. 💃

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