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Meteorological Autumn Discussion, Can You Smell The Crispness In The Air?

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22 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

This guy loved the trend in the EPS past day 10 this morning, :heatmiser: 

i would say more uncertainty than normal with all three GEFS, EPS and Candian having different looks. 

Then I'll show a flip, whoops not exactly bathed in warmth any longer:

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_31.png.5c90f9cca71a72d16cae33ec6bc5b4da.png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_59.png.ec023a32fbe84c0fc0b50fb0e1a1487c.png

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43 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

This guy loved the trend in the EPS past day 10 this morning, :heatmiser: 

i would say more uncertainty than normal with all three GEFS, EPS and Candian having different looks. 

Seven years later a fading nina Feb vs a strong nino Feb. Ukie skill was down.

5a07511e8aed3_ohboy.jpg.fb3302f3acc5c531e3f10a7cf3684cd8.jpg

 

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15 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Shocked face....

 

I'd rather store it away for later on. A -nao this time of year only brings a colder November rain. Give me that around Christmas. 

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There looks to be another pretty solid cold shot next weekend into the start of the following week. After that though, things look to go pretty zonal with some meridonal flow to end out November. The nao is still there, but it looks more east base now due in part to the Aleutian ridge being stronger than modeled and pushing into Alaska more. This is in turn pushing the surface PV furth east towards Greenland. 

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Still think we get into a good pattern for Dec, not sure how long yet though. MJO tracking through some favorable phases for colder than normal and stormier for the first half of December. It doesn't look like a robust wave but enough of one that could turn things in the Pacific more favorable. 

ewp.gif

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Tom's white turkey day

Yea thats looking like a pretty cold week as it looks now. Some man cold coming in

 

eps_t2m_anom_noram_204.png

eps_t2m_anom_noram_264.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea thats looking like a pretty cold week as it looks now. Some man cold coming in

 

eps_t2m_anom_noram_204.png

eps_t2m_anom_noram_264.png

Even have the NAEFS on board which pretty much makes it a lock.

2017111200_054@007_E1_north@america_I_NAEFS@TEMPERATURE_anomaly@probability@combined@week2_198.png.322ef1a8b4808d42a4e4a3f003d336f9.png

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

What's man cold? 5,10 or 15 degrees below normal?

thats man cold

 

gfs_T850a_neus_31.png

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2 hours ago, Harbourton said:

What's man cold? 5,10 or 15 degrees below normal?

I think my chipping game is man cold.  That was Tom, not me.  I'd call it I am heading to Jacksonville cold.

 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

I think my chipping game is man cold.  That was Tom, not me.  I'd call it I am heading to Caribou cold.

 

Agreed 

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

With that map, Caribou may be warmer.

I know, that's why you need to go there instead of south 

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55 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I know, that's why you need to go there instead of south 

Better yet he can get into the Nws office up there, I'm sure they could use him to work some MIds. ;)

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10 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Better yet he can get into the Nws office up there, I'm sure they could use him to work some MIds. ;)

I can also work some meds while I am at it.:mellow:

 

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Not a bad SST map in Pacific, more warm water in goa and off west coast. Nina continues to be east base

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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I'd continue to watch around the Thanksgiving timeframe for something. This is a nice trend that I like seeing. Look at how the pna is getting stronger as we get closer in time and how it really amplifies the flow.  This would allow disturbances to dig under us and possibly turn the corner. Also, the nao which looked to be losing some steam a couple days ago is getting more favorable too. 

eps_z500_anom_noram_264.gif

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Still think we see a bit of a warm up last week of Dec maybe first week of Dec as things go more zonal and we start to lose the effects of -ao and -nao. Still like another cold surge in response to tropical forcing in phases 7-1 for Dec, 

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Even though the RMM plots show COD right now, we currently have a pretty strong MJO wave in phase 3 currently. This looks to weaken as it moves into phase 5 or so. Further down the line, it looks like some -OLR for poss tropical development somewhere in phases 5-7

2017.png

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something to also take note of if you look at the CPC teleconnection stuff. The gfs has a big time negative bias for the AO and nao in the longe range

Ensemble Mean NAO Outlooks

Ensemble Mean AO Outlooks

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Here he comes again, some Gigi cold with some Barney thrown in off the euro last night

 

ecmwf_t850_anom_ne_222.png

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