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Rainshadow

Meteorological Autumn Discussion, Can You Smell The Crispness In The Air?

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Well the new paradigm may throw this all out of kilter anyway, but a light measurably November (ala 1995) have done better than a heavier measurably November (ala 1989 which was the heaviest event of the cold season).  Looks like 2.0 or 2.5 seems to be the cut off. 

makes sense, I was thinking more of a lighter event anyway. Ground temps still have to be on fire. 02-03  where I was started hot in November then backed off before going all in ( although that was a nino). 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Gfs illustrating the potential I mentioned around thanksgiving period

Quite the holiday if that is close to right. 

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I hope this pattern repeats itself in a more climo friendly time. Kind of feel like it's getting wasted in mid To late November. Granted it can snow just a lot harder to do 

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Another wicked cold shot around day 10. Like the northerly flow off the Great Lakes, that gets lake effect and upslope snow going for my pre T-day trip in KY.  

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Gonna be interesting to see what weeklies do. I think there is going to be more pacific influence this run. Last run undersold the depth of the trough in the pacific 

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I feel like a broken record saying this, but you can continue to see on eps retrograde west. Trough in AK goes west, which allows ridge to bump west and amplify a bit more. This in turn pushes the trough in the east west and allows it to amplify more. So you get a colder look. 

eps_z500_anom_noram_312.gif

eps_t2m_5d_anom_noram_360 (2).gif

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Looks like a Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald type Great Lakes storm predicted by the EC/GFS day 8 or 9ish.

:(

 

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like a Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald type Great Lakes storm predicted by the EC/GFS day 8 or 9ish.

:(

 

Wavebreak that starts our -nao. Storm around thanksgiving is the one to watch

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Wavebreak that starts our -nao. Storm around thanksgiving is the one to watch

Brother in law will be in the Catskills that holiday, he could have a legit shot and bring back memories of November 1971 (a weak nina winter also) storm.

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26 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Wavebreak that starts our -nao. Storm around thanksgiving is the one to watch

GEFS has much better spacing vs a couple of days ago but the troughs are weak.  Cold air is getting pretty remote with coldest air shifting from SW Canada to Siberia. 

gef288.gif

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Looks like a Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald type Great Lakes storm predicted by the EC/GFS day 8 or 9ish.

:(

 

I see what you did there, Tony

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

GEFS has much better spacing vs a couple of days ago but the troughs are weak.  Cold air is getting pretty remote with coldest air shifting from SW Canada to Siberia. 

 

One downfall from -nao unless you pin PV underneath is the air starts to get stale because there is no fresh source coming in. 

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This looks better in the EPO region than it did a couple of days ago about an additional cold shot. 

4indices.png.f9cff4df111bfe55921f4d99d4514e30.png

Eps and gefs bullish on a fig crushing cold shot next weekend/weeknof thabksgiving. To say the least atleast as of now it doesn't look like we will be roasting turkeys outside like the past two years

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Eps and gefs bullish on a fig crushing cold shot next weekend/weeknof thabksgiving. To say the least atleast as of now it doesn't look like we will be roasting turkeys outside like the past two years

Figs are dead in about 8 hours.  The next one is unsportsman like conduct 15 yard penalty for piling on. 

 

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Euro loading up on another Barney episode for thanksgiving week for Tony. 

IMG_1199.PNG

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro loading up on another Barney episode for thanksgiving week for Tony. 

IMG_1199.PNG

This worked out so well about 8 or so days ago, I will try it again.  But, but, but, its ensemble mean has a much more shunted cold shot, 500mb mean 180m higher.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

This worked out so well about 8 or so days ago, I will try it again.  But, but, but, its ensemble mean has a much more shunted cold shot, 500mb mean 180m higher.

We can only hope the same result occurs 

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On 11/4/2017 at 7:56 PM, Rainshadow said:

Someone is going to being laying a big egg or pulling a coup.  This is not LLLV territory.

Capture.JPG.cf352b6fcb4ee08f630bda27c9540323.JPG

Egg on face, GFS.    GFS, egg on face.   Euro nailed it.

188108-thumb.jpg.9a8556e2f7b3bb0923b6b3b4014b6aac.jpg

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Still a lot of uncertainty on how long this blocking pattern lasts. Nothing is ever stable in a 11-15day forecast but the eps the last 3 runs have slowly been backing off the strength of the nao as there seems to be more disagreement as to how strong or how long this lasts. To me this doesn't seem like a long lasting -nao. This just seems more like a by product of a wave break. I don't have access to EPS stratosphere maps, but the gefs show the stratosphere may not allow this -nao to continue. There is still some uncertainty in this as well.  Also of note, the thing I have been mentioning of the consistent nina like atmosphere response with the continued Aleutian ridge and trough near or just off the west coast. This feature dampens out any big +pna response and makes the flow go rather zonal. Need that feature further west to get some good ridging  to really amplify the flow for storms to dig underneath us and allow for some good cold shots. On the other hand, we have trended more towards a -epo from earlier which looked like a pig of a closed low camping out in Alaska. If this is true then we bring in some good cold into Canada again. But if you don't have the amplification in the pattern it just stays bottled up to the north or digs into the trough out west. 

eps_z500a_5d_exnamer_61.gif

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Here are the gefs stratosphere response. This is off the 18z gefs. Note day ten, the stratospheric PV is west of Greenland which allows the -nao response. By day 15 though, the PV move into Greenland, and thus you lose your -naogefs_z50a_nh_41.pnggefs_z50a_nh_61.png

Now look at 12z gefs, keeps the PV west of Greenland which allows the -nao to continue throughout. So the uncertainty is theregefs_z50a_nh_41 (1).pnggefs_z50a_nh_61 (1).png

 

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This guy loved the trend in the EPS past day 10 this morning, :heatmiser: 

i would say more uncertainty than normal with all three GEFS, EPS and Candian having different looks. 

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14 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

This guy loved the trend in the EPS past day 10 this morning, :heatmiser: 

i would say more uncertainty than normal with all three GEFS, EPS and Candian having different looks. 

This is a subjective observation on my part,  nina winters model skill scores are lower than average.  

"Not much differences" with our nearby ocean.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_21.png.116f2b0ba26b8dda3686be9caa808dd6.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png.da6e8c2da770abe8734e741612cdf794.png

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