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Meteorological Autumn Discussion, Can You Smell The Crispness In The Air?

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Overall change from 12z eps to 0z eps. Note lower hgts in -nao region and across the pole. Also lower hgts in the west. Shows how fluid this is being 10-15 days away. Been saying this as has Tony, skill scores are very bad with -nao forecasting outside of 7 days. Regardless of that, it's worth noting trends and how things are shaping out. 

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Kind of deceiving on that map.(I know it's a height change map, but still).. Still a robust blocking look on the EPS day 10-15 in the NAO region. 

 

If if I had one caveat about this pattern going forward, and I saw you touched in it earlier, would be the GOA/Alaskan Vortex. Granted,  we're still only in November, but if that sets up semi-permanently there come December, we wouldn't like that. 

 

 

IMG_7432.PNG

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3 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Kind of deceiving on that map.(I know it's a height change map, but still).. Still a robust blocking look on the EPS day 10-15 in the NAO region. 

 

If if I had one caveat about this pattern going forward, and I saw you touched in it earlier, would be the GOA/Alaskan Vortex. Granted,  we're still only in November, but if that sets up semi-permanently there come December, we wouldn't like that. 

 

With recent trends cold in Canada looking good for Nov+Dec. I'd be feeling pretty good if I lived in New England or along the N Tier. Its more iffy here with the strong La Nina N/S gradient nearby. Even in this area odds for early cold/snow are better north.

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56 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

With recent trends cold in Canada looking good for Nov+Dec. I'd be feeling pretty good if I lived in New England or along the N Tier. Its more iffy here with the strong La Nina N/S gradient nearby. Even in this area odds for early cold/snow are better north.

I mean you could say that any year, thats just climo really along n tier and new england. Honestly I think it's a big plus for the whole US to have a cold Canada with good snow pack. Thats what hurt last year with how strong the PAC flow was in NOV and early dec just destroyed any snow pack. As cold came south it modified greatly. 

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Kind of deceiving on that map.(I know it's a height change map, but still).. Still a robust blocking look on the EPS day 10-15 in the NAO region. 

 

If if I had one caveat about this pattern going forward, and I saw you touched in it earlier, would be the GOA/Alaskan Vortex. Granted,  we're still only in November, but if that sets up semi-permanently there come December, we wouldn't like that. 

 

 

 

Those trend maps are the best, because it shows you how things are changing from run to run. This run showed that there wasn't as much agreement for the strength of the ridge over Greenland as 12z had. Also, what I liked is look out over the Aleutians, falling heights while they rose over Alaska and goa. I think these maps tell the story more than just looking at a h5 map and seeing pretty colors. These trends at this time frame tells you how things are shifting around. 

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Personally, I'm hoping this blocking is delayed till DEC. Just better climo odds for snow then. 

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That cold pool is gonna be tough to eradicate so quickly, just NINA typical feedback. So ens may be rushing things a little to fast. As Brian mentioned above and as I have been saying need to that trough out of sw canada and nw US. Flattens the flow out to much despite the -nao. Again, very textbook nina. 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I mean you could say that any year, thats just climo really along n tier and new england. Honestly I think it's a big plus for the whole US to have a cold Canada with good snow pack. Thats what hurt last year with how strong the PAC flow was in NOV and early dec just destroyed any snow pack. As cold came south it modified greatly. 

In a nina odds favor north. Doesn't mean it has to happen but think this is the year your move may really pay off.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

In a nina odds favor north. Doesn't mean it has to happen but think this is the year your move may really pay off.

Yes, thats why the weeklies +pna pattern has me a bit skeptical. Typical nina is -pna/ Aleutian ridge/ se ridge. Thus why west and along Norther tier are climo favored spots in nina. Though, that also depends on where coolest anomalies in Pacific are.

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3 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Kind of deceiving on that map.(I know it's a height change map, but still).. Still a robust blocking look on the EPS day 10-15 in the NAO region. 

 

If if I had one caveat about this pattern going forward, and I saw you touched in it earlier, would be the GOA/Alaskan Vortex. Granted,  we're still only in November, but if that sets up semi-permanently there come December, we wouldn't like that. 

 

 

 

Also, that really isn't the typical GOA trough, thats the PV sitting there as it's pushed off the pole due to the -ao. That shouldn't be a permanent feature there as the pv moves around. Love seeing all the cold on our side. 

 

ecmwf_z50a_nh_41.png

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Still a great look in the Atlantic starting at day 10/ Pacific is alright, by end of run need to get that trough further west towards Aleutians. That type of look would start bleeding in Pacific air into US and Canada. It would also help form a pretty good +pna if it can too. That is all up in the air still. The GWO is still Nina base and the feedback from that is helping with the trough near the west coast. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240-384.gif

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^ you can also see how the whole pattern in that timeframe retrogrades to a degree too. 

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The weeklies make sense in this regard for beginning of December. Assuming this tropical action is correct, the area circled definitely has my attn. Thats phase 7-1 for December which highly correlates to east coast storms and colder weather.

 

ewp.gif

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The weeklies make sense in this regard for beginning of December. Assuming this tropical action is correct, the area circled definitely has my attn. Thats phase 7-1 for December which highly correlates to east coast storms and colder weather.

 

ewp.gif

December 5th is in that date range...hmmmm

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro monthly in, h5 look for ndj

IMG_1191.PNG

2m

convert_image-atls18-a82bacafb5c306db764

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Regardless of outcome, the Pacific has/will be different this November vs last.  We have already surpassed the # of days the EPO is negative this year vs last year from the time period of Oct 31st thru December 4th.

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So trend from 0z to 12z eps today was to go back to stronger -nao look. Thankfully we have that too, because without that we would probably get flooded with PAC air with that trough over GOA/Alaska. Pretty impressive look for 13-15 days out. We are now at day 9 for -nao formation. Not a very cold pattern, but below normal. You can see how the trough in Alaska flattens the flow out. Wish that -nao would form about 2/3 weeks from now instead of right now if it occurs

eps_z500_anom_noram_216.png

eps_z500_anom_noram_288.png

eps_z500_anom_noram_360.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

So trend from 0z to 12z eps today was to go back to stronger -nao look. Thankfully we have that too, because without that we would probably get flooded with PAC air with that trough over GOA/Alaska. Pretty impressive look for 13-15 days out. We are now at day 9 for -nao formation. Not a very cold pattern, but below normal. You can see how the trough in Alaska flattens the flow out. Wish that -nao would form about 2/3 weeks from now instead of right now if it occurs

eps_z500_anom_noram_216.png

eps_z500_anom_noram_288.png

eps_z500_anom_noram_360.png

That's one hell of a robust signal for a -NAO. Like a month to early to get too excited though for potential. 

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9 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

That's one hell of a robust signal for a -NAO. Like a month to early to get too excited though for potential. 

Yea I know, cold rain becomes a colder rain lol

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Not much change in overnight runs. -nao still progged to start around day 9 or so. Pacific pattern still looks pretty meh.

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Not much change in overnight runs. -nao still progged to start around day 9 or so. Pacific pattern still looks pretty meh.

All the cold is stuck in Western Canada in that pig of a trough with a zonal component underneath. All the - NAO does is prevent a blowtorch.  Hopefully favorable progression shows up in Dec on tomorrow's weeklies. 

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