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Rainshadow

Winter 2017-18 Outlook Discussion, The Pool Is Cooler

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A good trend is the CFS runs are cooling, now forecast a wet winter with normal temps. January is a gradient pattern.

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On 8/23/2017 at 3:25 PM, tombo82685 said:

Lets lock this in right now, LETS GO!!!

 

My analog package for fall, add a few degrees for bias correction. 

cd198.206.49.94.236.19.28.3.prcp.png

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Snowfall numbers were a quite a bit more friendly to this guy :heatmiser:

booo. 

Still just a fall analog list. 

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Cansips cancel winter with central based Niña. Party at heatmizers. Wall to wall blowtorch. 

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17 hours ago, SalemCountyNJ said:
Judah Cohen @judah47
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Predicted warming polar cap/negative AO for later this month could get the N Hemisphere #snow season off to a quick start especially Siberia

DJizDi-X0AcfzIp.jpg
 
DJizDjJXgAE7mGz.jpg

Seven of the last eight Octobers had above average (taking a 1967-present median) snow coverage; its become the new normal almost. 

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

^looks a lot like last winter

In my area many places had close to or more than 100 inches of snow even though Jan and Feb were plus 5 or so but Dec was normal and March +3 below.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

^looks a lot like last winter

Man that's ugly. Not surprising though with nina increasingly favored.

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2 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Man that's ugly. Not surprising though with nina increasingly favored.

Yup, only thing to watch for is with the low solar and -qbo some blocking. But if La nina goes moderate, eeek. Expectations are very low for this winter

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Even a certain somebody that typically goes full tilt for the northeast is going 0 to +1 on temps for DJF with above normal snow north of the M/D line.     Best action upper M/W into the NW.    Looks like a lot of cutters to me with the ATL ridge flexing, not sure how that above normal snow will work out.

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35 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

Even a certain somebody that typically goes full tilt for the northeast is going 0 to +1 on temps for DJF with above normal snow north of the M/D line.     Best action upper M/W into the NW.    Looks like a lot of cutters to me with the ATL ridge flexing, not sure how that above normal snow will work out.

Wildcard is blocking. Need la nina predictions to relax to weak, not moderate

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Wildcard is blocking. Need la nina predictions to relax to weak, not moderate

Nobody can outlook the nao well, but it would seem the need for a negative regime is increasing.

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43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Nobody can outlook the nao well, but it would seem the need for a negative regime is increasing.

Yea and with low solar and -qbo as long as its not insanely negative it would help increase chances

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Never heard of this Ens, maybe Tony has? But whatever it's smelling I'd like some

 

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On 9/15/2017 at 6:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

Never heard of this Ens, maybe Tony has? But whatever it's smelling I'd like some

 

I have and the poster is correct. That is kind of interesting. 

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Mizer continues to like my preliminary analog list which changed to more weak la-nina types and second year ninas. :heatmiser:

He doesn't like Decembers of 1989 and 2000 on the list :shiver-1:

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On 9/15/2017 at 6:37 PM, tombo82685 said:

Never heard of this Ens, maybe Tony has? But whatever it's smelling I'd like some

 

I have seen theirs and CPC's outlook normally pretty close.  As to what goes into it:

Capture.JPGfff.JPG.4be2f6b03fe708be00f31dbd746da74a.JPG

Flipping thru the 3 month sequence looks like they are outlooking a cold Feb.  Raw NMME right now is "slightly" different...

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png.64640eb3be46e443c36d004e9c70df67.png

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I have seen theirs and CPC's outlook normally pretty close.  As to what goes into it:

Capture.JPGfff.JPG.4be2f6b03fe708be00f31dbd746da74a.JPG

Flipping thru the 3 month sequence looks like they are outlooking a cold Feb.  Raw NMME right now is "slightly" different...

NMME_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season3.png.64640eb3be46e443c36d004e9c70df67.png

That's more textbook stronger Niña imo

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That's more textbook stronger Niña imo

The NASA outlook in the NMME would be considered a torch by outlooks that are torch.

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