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Rainshadow

Winter 2017-18 Outlook Discussion, The Pool Is Cooler

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17 hours ago, iceman56 said:

Should we be suspect of a map that has anomaly mispelled?    :)

I think the person who generated that map lives near the peak positive anamoly center. ;)

 

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12 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Not the only place either:

The IRI calibration could be correcting for a warm NMME bias or JB developed the calibration.

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40 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The IRI calibration could be correcting for a warm NMME bias or JB developed the calibration.

No denying that the NMMEs are nearly always warm, but so have our months gone.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

No denying that the NMMEs are nearly always warm, but so have our months gone.

 

Here is last winter's outlook at the same monthly time and verification:

 

DJF17TDeptUS.png.5e39a81eae5038ab3c52ad1ec360cb14.pngCapture.JPG.a8d261c5a326fdb8a913911e12f7a4c3.JPG

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

One needs to happen (colder November) to have a chance at a cold winter.  If November is also warm (I'd say 50 or higher), Mr. Sunny Side of the Street will take the last train to the coast.

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If you want it colder, need some atmospheric mechanism to get that warm water in the western Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, right now its the least positive PDO since 2013.   If I got the right winter, that winter's prospects changed after the typhoons set up the -epo from hell (for me) that November. 

sst.daily_anom.gif.540b561b1e9fe871e41d70986d35b05e.gif

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

If you want it colder, need some atmospheric mechanism to get that warm water in the western Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, right now its the least positive PDO since 2013.   If I got the right winter, that winter's prospects changed after the typhoons set up the -epo from hell (for me) that November. 

sst.daily_anom.gif.540b561b1e9fe871e41d70986d35b05e.gif

Yea 2013 started the best back to back winter in my lifetime

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11 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Do you need a pep talk from the Saturday optimist?

He's no longer an optomist, now negative nancy

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

I'd take a 2010/2011 repeat

I'd take 2010-11 over 2013-14.  That was the PA ice storm winter we were talking about on Saturday. Plus March was too cold, by then I am over winter.  Of course some winters I am over winter on December 26th. 

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14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I'd take 2010-11 over 2013-14.  That was the PA ice storm winter we were talking about on Saturday. Plus March was too cold, by then I am over winter.  Of course some winters I am over winter on December 26th. 

Yea 2010-2011 was full blown winter from dec-jan, then vanished. Had lots of blocking in that colder period.

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9 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

If you want it colder, need some atmospheric mechanism to get that warm water in the western Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska, right now its the least positive PDO since 2013.   If I got the right winter, that winter's prospects changed after the typhoons set up the -epo from hell (for me) that November. 

sst.daily_anom.gif.540b561b1e9fe871e41d70986d35b05e.gif

still not negative though may tick back upward a touch but a nuetral pdo may hold for the winter. 

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^ thats a huge change in the NAO region on that JMA seasonal

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That JMA run showing the cold pool so far east in the Pacific would argue for a more eastern trough than depicted IMO.

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Saw the individual monthly images through January with the new JMA. December had a nice trough over the central and east which pulled back some in Jan. 

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