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Rainshadow

Winter 2017-18 Outlook Discussion, The Pool Is Cooler

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Thought I saw temps wise it trended colder too for the east. Though, it was a torch to begin with. What does warm pool off new foundland indicate? Se ridge or blocking ?

+NAO.  Although its a chicken vs egg thing somethimes with ssta.  The -NAO tripole is warm north / cold off east coast / warm tropics. 

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro monthlies, good dec and Jan then winter over. 2010/11 type thing 

 

Here is the temp breakdown

dec/jan 0

Feb +1

March +3

Jan looks snowiest with above normal precip

Trend from last month temp wise

Dec 0

jan +1

feb +2

March +1

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Seems like all these climo models are continuing to adjust colder to start off realizing more east base Niña to start

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I don't buy the blowtorch March idea, does not fit the analog package which hit last March really well. Blowtorch Feb though :heatmiser::hotsun: signal is present. 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Well '78-'79 had to be realllllly east based because both the jma (nino 3) and cpc (nina 3.4) were flat neutral during that winter.  I removed that season and got this:

cd72_73_244_179_311_15_11.0_prcp.png.7c1215e9199d835305894843c28815fa.png

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I'd take 2010-11 in a heartbeat. The January euro look also reminded me of 2013-14. 

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16 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

I don't buy the blowtorch March idea, does not fit the analog package which hit last March really well. Blowtorch Feb though :heatmiser::hotsun: signal is present. 

The way the climo models have it now almost looks like 2010/2011 with strong winter dec and Jan. Then poof in feb and march. Two months ago though, a lot of them were warm for every month. So they're adjusting as we get closer and the trend has been Tony's friend 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The way the climo models have it now almost looks like 2010/2011 with strong winter dec and Jan. Then poof in feb and march. Two months ago though, a lot of them were warm for every month. So they're adjusting as we get closer and the trend has been Tony's friend 

Right on the money, with the trends going colder and the nina going east. Looking back at the numbers for 10-11 that would be close to a best case  for the winter.  The February and March values from that winter were a little above normal temp wise but not blowtorch. 

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3 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Right on the money, with the trends going colder and the nina going east. Looking back at the numbers for 10-11 that would be close to a best case  for the winter.  The February and March values from that winter were a little above normal temp wise but not blowtorch. 

10/11 though was a stronger Niña. Was that east base too?

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Here is what the analog package came up with. Given the recent modeling looks, adding a bias correction may end up being faulty for Dec/Jan. 

 

Month

Temp  Departure (F)

Bias corrected based on past outlooks.

Snowfall (Inches)

rounded

Snow Departure (Inches)

rounded

December

1.8°F

1.3 in

-2.5 in

January

1.8°F

9.0 in

+2.4 in

February

2.4°F

6.5 in

-.8 in

March

0.6°F

2.9 in

-.8 in

Season

 

1.7°F

21.1 in

-1.3 in ( Includes Nov & Apr)

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

10/11 though was a stronger Niña. Was that east base too?

Basin-wide. 

anomnight.11.8.2010.gif

Compared to this year. 

anomnight.11.6.2017.gif

Some interesting differences 

1. The current cold blob off Australia. 

2. Neutral compared to negative PDO

3. This year appears more east based 

4. Much warmer SST off the east coast this year

5. Colder waters in Hudson bay and near Greenland. 

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15 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Here is what the analog package came up with. Given the recent modeling looks, adding a bias correction may end up being faulty for Dec/Jan. 

 

Month

Temp  Departure (F)

Bias corrected based on past outlooks.

Snowfall (Inches)

rounded

Snow Departure (Inches)

rounded

December

1.8°F

1.3 in

-2.5 in

January

1.8°F

9.0 in

+2.4 in

February

2.4°F

6.5 in

-.8 in

March

0.6°F

2.9 in

-.8 in

Season

 

1.7°F

21.1 in

-1.3 in ( Includes Nov & Apr)

 

2 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Basin-wide. 

anomnight.11.8.2010.gif

Compared to this year. 

anomnight.11.6.2017.gif

Some interesting differences 

1. The current cold blob off Australia. 

2. Neutral compared to negative PDO

3. This year appears more east based 

4. Much warmer SST off the east coast this year

5. Colder waters in Hudson bay and near Greenland. 

Also no cold cold cold cold pool south of Alaska.

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18 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Here is what the analog package came up with. Given the recent modeling looks, adding a bias correction may end up being faulty for Dec/Jan. 

 

Month

Temp  Departure (F)

Bias corrected based on past outlooks.

Snowfall (Inches)

rounded

Snow Departure (Inches)

rounded

December

1.8°F

1.3 in

-2.5 in

January

1.8°F

9.0 in

+2.4 in

February

2.4°F

6.5 in

-.8 in

March

0.6°F

2.9 in

-.8 in

Season

 

1.7°F

21.1 in

-1.3 in ( Includes Nov & Apr)

Anyway was starting to post, the Tombo/Tony banter ;) snowfall outlook is 20", so you are in mighty fine company. 

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The way the climo models have it now almost looks like 2010/2011 with strong winter dec and Jan. Then poof in feb and march. Two months ago though, a lot of them were warm for every month. So they're adjusting as we get closer and the trend has been Tony's friend 

Just to be chaotic and the way things go watch February be the coldest month (relative to anything) of the winter.

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Found these plots of winter temps during nina on the NOAA enso blog. Anything is possible but we typically avoid the extremes in this area and stay pretty close to normal.

ENSO_LaNinaWintersSince1950_temp_maps_620.jpg

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Here is another comparing older to more recent nina's. There is a flatter temperature gradient in the recent nina's. After seeing these charts, I would stay close to normal for this area, but shade a little to the upside reflecting recent Nina average and warm background state.

La-Nina-Winter-Temperature-Pattern-Comparison.png

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51 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Found these plots of winter temps during nina on the NOAA enso blog. Anything is possible but we typically avoid the extremes in this area and stay pretty close to normal.

ENSO_LaNinaWintersSince1950_temp_maps_620.jpg

Eyeballing, it looks like 11 above normal, 10 below.  Even the constants of the upper midwest change (2011-12 vs 1964-5), goes to show you there are other players out there.

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Found these plots of winter temps during nina on the NOAA enso blog. Anything is possible but we typically avoid the extremes in this area and stay pretty close to normal.

ENSO_LaNinaWintersSince1950_temp_maps_620.jpg

Tom was talking to me about the qbo the other day and I told him I just don't use it.  Not because it doesn't work as well as some other indicators. It just gets to the point that the only analog that one will get for the winter of 2017-18 is the winter of 2017-18 by the time you look at the pdo, nao, enso, qbo, etc.

Anyway looking at the upper midwest flip four seasons and the 30hpa QBO

64-65 was neutral but trending downward

71-72 was positive but falling

05-06 was negative but rising

11-12 was negative, held steadyish during the winter and then fell some more

17-18 we are pretty strongly negative going into this almost looks like 14-15 repeat

 

If I wanted to mimic the October QBO from 30hpa upward to this October, the closest fit seasons were 00-01, 91-92, 86-87, 81-82 & 76-77.  The first one was the only nina in this set. 

 

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54 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Tom was talking to me about the qbo the other day and I told him I just don't use it.  Not because it doesn't work as well as some other indicators. It just gets to the point that the only analog that one will get for the winter of 2017-18 is the winter of 2017-18 by the time you look at the pdo, nao, enso, qbo, etc.

Anyway looking at the upper midwest flip four seasons and the 30hpa QBO

64-65 was neutral but trending downward

71-72 was positive but falling

05-06 was negative but rising

11-12 was negative, held steadyish during the winter and then fell some more

17-18 we are pretty strongly negative going into this almost looks like 14-15 repeat

 

If I wanted to mimic the October QBO from 30hpa upward to this October, the closest fit seasons were 00-01, 91-92, 86-87, 81-82 & 76-77.  The first one was the only nina in this set. 

 

Interesting - nina + neg qbo hasn't been a very good combo but sample size is small. Here is nina qpf again we tend to avoid extremes.

ENSO_LaNinaWintersSince1950_precip_maps_620.jpg

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Like other seasonal forecast models, they are catching on to a more east base Niña thus cooling temps in the east more 

 

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Latest CFS SST forecast for DJF. Like the other models shifting eastwards. Hopefully that look pans out.

glbSSTSeaNormInd1.gif

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11 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Latest CFS SST forecast for DJF. Like the other models shifting eastwards. Hopefully that look pans out.

 

Image result for giggity gif

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