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Rainshadow

Winter 2017-18 Outlook Discussion, The Pool Is Cooler

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Please don't get me wrong, November's outcome (not only here, but more so in the Eastern Pacific) could increase optimism for this winter and the teleconnections look good to start the month.  But that is needed; October is laying the foundation for a warm winter and the November pattern has to come along with a sledgehammer to bust it up.

 

Warm Octobers seem to have more of an effect on winter temperatures south of NYC.

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7 minutes ago, pawxnut said:

Warm Octobers seem to have more of an effect on winter temperatures south of NYC.

My original published paper  (in like 1987) about October/November temps and ensuing winter temps was for NYC proper itself, so you gotta nudge that line slightly farther north. ;)

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lots of cooling this week in Nino 3.4/4. Also cooling in GOA region too. 

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

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18 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

My original published paper  (in like 1987) about October/November temps and ensuing winter temps was for NYC proper itself, so you gotta nudge that line slightly farther north. ;)

Yes I would agree and also more away from the coast , especially if November in included.

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On 10/21/2017 at 6:43 PM, tombo82685 said:

lots of cooling this week in Nino 3.4/4. Also cooling in GOA region too.

Nina has become established in the tropical Pacific the past couple of weeks. If modeling is correct won't get much stronger than this.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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Really need a normal (or cooler somehow) November at this point to increase chances of a colder winter.  2nd warmest October on record not good.

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14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Really need a normal (or cooler somehow) November at this point to increase chances of a colder winter.  2nd warmest October on record not good.

Going to be hard to get back to normal after this start. Anything interesting in top 5 Oct+Nov?

610temp.new.gif

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Going to be hard to get back to normal after this start. Anything interesting in top 5 Oct+Nov?

610temp.new.gif

I will tabilize it in a bit, but its not pretty.  These are the ten warmest Oct-Nov combos, not necessarily a top ten or twenty October followed by any November that made it to the top ten.  This also based on the current normal and 4 of the 10 occurred before then when normals were lower (except in East Nantmeal where normals were  higher  ;) ). 

cd72_73_242_233_303.9_15_59_prcp.png.2054d2f4afef479c3bdd4fcde30fd0bd.png

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Going to be hard to get back to normal after this start. Anything interesting in top 5 Oct+Nov?

610temp.new.gif

Well there would always be Bradford (if November is that warm):

Capture.JPG.22e1ee1808d09bbc4203fc03c863201d.JPG

I'll save everyone the response:

DJe8FWRW4AA-o_Q.jpg.500f352d17cc279e22a01da7383d2462.jpg

 

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So when are Tom and Tony golfing for the annual total snowfall prediction? Will they also golf for AN/BN temperature?

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7 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

So when are Tom and Tony golfing for the annual total snowfall prediction? Will they also golf for AN/BN temperature?

We will try starting next week if our scheds mesh.  We are gaining quite the reputation.  Have to keep the date/course under wraps because of threat of data breaches. :ph34r: Haven't talked to Tom about temps.

2014-15 outlooked 30", 27" fell

2015-16 outlooked 30", 27.5" fell

2016-17 outlooked 20", 15" fell.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

We will try starting next week if our scheds mesh.  We are gaining quite the reputation.  Have to keep the date/course under wraps because of threat of data breaches. :ph34r: Haven't talked to Tom about temps.

2014-15 outlooked 30", 27" fell

2015-16 outlooked 30", 27.5" fell

2016-17 outlooked 20", 15" fell.

We'll have to call it the TTG index. Pretty good correlation scores so far!

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28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

We will try starting next week if our scheds mesh.  We are gaining quite the reputation.  Have to keep the date/course under wraps because of threat of data breaches. :ph34r: Haven't talked to Tom about temps.

2014-15 outlooked 30", 27" fell

2015-16 outlooked 30", 27.5" fell

2016-17 outlooked 20", 15" fell.

 

Our fall one looks solid too

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Well there would always be Bradford (if November is that warm):

I'll save everyone the response:

 

Thanks. With the current forecast looks like 2017 will be on the list maybe near the top.

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51 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Thanks. With the current forecast looks like 2017 will be on the list maybe near the top.

Obviously the weeklies dont look good, but I really don't buy into much in either direction until we get within the day 10 threshold. 

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Just for kicks here is DJF for the years in Tony's table (years before 1948 not available). Has the nina, cold Canada look we've seen in several long-range model runs.

warmanalogs.png

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I could make a solid argument for this winter turning out colder than normal just as I can for it to be warmer than normal. I live by the mentality to just take it 2 weeks at a time and go from there

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18 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I will tabilize it in a bit, but its not pretty.  These are the ten warmest Oct-Nov combos, not necessarily a top ten or twenty October followed by any November that made it to the top ten.  This also based on the current normal and 4 of the 10 occurred before then when normals were lower (except in East Nantmeal where normals were  higher  ;) ). 

cd72_73_242_233_303.9_15_59_prcp.png.2054d2f4afef479c3bdd4fcde30fd0bd.png

Based on this why don't we set up another golf outing for January?

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Another mild winter? Bummer. January golf anyone?

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If you could slide that ridge to the east over Alaska that would definitely be a much colder pattern. As is though, that's textbook Niña. Would of thought it would be colder though in west/plains with that -epo positioning. 

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