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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Discussion; Striving For Less Than Forty 90 Degree Days

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Cough, cough, cough

 

outside of last summer's prediction our golf outlooks have been solid. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

outside of last summer's prediction our golf outlooks have been solid. 

Its too bad we can't say the same thing about our games.  :( 

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Cool and wet continues 

Euro looks blockiest.  GFS has the ubiquitous 7 days in a row of 89 degrees or higher in la la land.

Capture.thumb.JPG.85b41df12d8b1da22e19709dda7200e4.JPG

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Posted this on twitter, but textbook Omega block on the EPS for mid next week 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

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18 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The omega unravels and it looks slightly above normal at least not torcherous

Capture.thumb.JPG.1fc7b6ae7d70dd2b719e256eac644ede.JPG

Looks like a lot of zonal downsloping flow. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like a lot of zonal downsloping flow. 

I'd still take it, not that humid.  I know you have been missing ending of gfs runs like this, so just for you....

Capture.thumb.JPG.6a7d57895a4d22a52c11efdb563fb152.JPG

Look ma, no negatives:

f336.thumb.gif.085ee0b46409d5095b3348b0b7cbbb9f.gif

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What's our chances of hitting 90+ the rest of the summer? Not complaining about our current weather. Just curious if it will be an end of August or early September scorcher.

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

What's our chances of hitting 90+ the rest of the summer? Not complaining about our current weather. Just curious if it will be an end of August or early September scorcher.

I could see philly getting another 90-92 type high, but I just don't see a prolonged or even big time heat look. Looks zonal/nw flow type stuff. Normal to a little above normal 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Rather toasty euro run last night

The longer term pattern is "not cool". 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

The longer term pattern is "not cool". 

Here's to hoping the 6z gfs is right

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here's to hoping the 6z gfs is right

La La Land or not, this is

artist2014_kane_kaleo.jpgz.jpgx.jpg.ac6763523a8a53725ecafdf788113777.jpg territory

Capture.thumb.JPG.18af3c7ef2c1f1355897f266b4ede63c.JPG

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

La La Land or not, this is territory

Capture.thumb.JPG.18af3c7ef2c1f1355897f266b4ede63c.JPG

 

another la la view or LLV

 

2017-08-14 09_36_23-700mb Hgt, Temp North America 00z ECMWF-EPS.png

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I could definitely see a run at 90 or so early to mid next week with the h5 look. That ridge out west wants to belly over and just to the south of us. 

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

another la la view or LLV

 

2017-08-14 09_36_23-700mb Hgt, Temp North America 00z ECMWF-EPS.png

Every LLV in August ends with a run of 90s on the OP GFS and no below normal heights on the GEFS:

f384.thumb.gif.117fc3c29ad471ae97073fefab6833a6.gif

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Not in LLLV territory and mainly because normals are falling, a relatively toastier period looks like its going to occur behind the "cold front" on Friday and last til the next cold front (which looks right now to have more teeth) on next Wednesday.  Low 90s not out of the question.

 

 

 

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From what I'm seeing, any heat that does come looks very transient. Back to below normal hgts and above normal precip

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On 8/15/2017 at 6:17 PM, tombo82685 said:

From what I'm seeing, any heat that does come looks very transient. Back to below normal hgts and above normal precip

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_eus_10.png

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On 5/30/2017 at 1:33 PM, Rainshadow said:

Well in the I wish it would be true, but have low confidence in it happening category, my three upcoming summer analogs are 1951, 1957 & 1968.  All were predicated on a previous winter weak nina and a non strong nino going forward. THE GWO has been hanging in nino mode lately.  Latest cfs2 has enso neutral conditions outlooked for next winter and the dynamical and statistical models in general have been cooling their nino jets with the current consensus average in the weak category.  Beside precluding 1965 & 1972 from the mix because their eventual ninos were strong, their Aprils were also cool in PHL.  FWIW all three of these summers were also dry, kind of an odd combo (cool & dry) & this could well be on its way to crashing and mudding after this upcoming weekend.  The maps are based on current normals, if one were to use the 1950-2016 POR average, you could add around half a degree to the depicted temperature departures.

Number of 90 degree days (entire year): 20 in 1951, 31 in 1957 & 27 in 1968.  The current climatological average is 27 days. (1950-2017 por 25 days)

 

 

cd72.73.240.212.149.11.14.39.prcp.png

cd72.73.240.212.149.11.15.6.prcp.png

cd72.73.240.212.149.11.15.35.prcp.png

cd72.73.240.212.149.11.16.1.prcp.png

cd72.73.240.212.149.11.17.12.prcp.png

PHL summer average 76.4F, only 0.4F above normal; August negated July and June accounted for the above normal average.  Probably right for the wrong reason, but expecting a better summer and getting it was win-win.  Speaking of right, wrong reason, precip was wayyyyyyy off.

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