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Rainshadow

Meteorological Summer Discussion; Striving For Less Than Forty 90 Degree Days

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Well why should it be different I suppose.  Looks like the climate models want to keep the middle of the country wet which at least should offer a fighting opportunity to the heat ridge if close.  Doesnt say much about the Bermuda high though.  The IMME is not as torrid, maybe the Euro is inbetween.  Anyway every cooler than average May this century has resulted in a hotter than average summer.  Then 14 of 17 have been.  CFS2 looks like its pendulum swinging back to a weak nino.

Enjoy. :wacko:

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Then we go to week 2

 

I hope its right, but like winter (and that GFS thread), I'll believe it when more than half of it is within 9 days.

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Lets keep this look up for the next year

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Still not seeing much of a heat signal through June 10. Pretty persistent Rex block look out west and trough in the east that sort of flattens out a little with time. 

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Might have to watch some sort of warm up towards mid to late June. Looks like MJO could possible swing towards phase 5/6 which is a warm phase. Not saying this is guarantee, my summer h5 skill is pretty blah because of how short wavelengths get. So while a normal h5 look in winter would typically yield one thing, it's different in summer. 

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20 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I guess I found the IMME member.  Sigh, one could always

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about this:

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The smiley face over the Rockies means???

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

The smiley face over the Rockies means???

Not much.  The eyes and nose (Great Salt Lake?) were already there on the map. I just added the mouth to the image. :ph34r:

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Still don't see any heat through June 10. Persistent trough over the east with ridge out west and in the Atlantic. Will have to see once we get into mid to late June with MJO effects if we get some heat.

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Analogs: 2002,2009,2012,2014

Averages:

June: Normal temps, slightly above normal precipitation. 

July: +1, below normal precipitation.

August: +1, above normal precipitation. 

 

I did this in less than 30 minutes, but all indications are close to or slightly above normal on the temperatures this summer. That list is scary good if you take those same years into next winter  :abomsnow:

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Ben Noll could have just read our thread.  ;)

Looks like we are going to be pretty close to 63.6F for May, so my stopped clock summer outlook might have to wait til May 31st. If I were smart, I'd wait til August 31st. 

Looks like the 3.4 nino has slowed, up to this point it looks like the modeling has been lagging with the nina troffing / then maybe the nino peak?

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

 

2009 as far as April/May Temps locally is not a bad fit.  But beyond that, I see that 2009-10 was downgraded to a moderate el nino (vs weak end of strong on previous used normals). Given how the models like to go bold with nina/nino in the previous spring, not sure we even get there beyond summer given recent biases.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

2009 as far as April/May Temps locally is not a bad fit.  But beyond that, I see that 2009-10 was downgraded to a moderate el nino (vs weak end of strong on previous used normals). Given how the models like to go bold with nina/nino in the previous spring, not sure we even get there beyond summer given recent biases.

2009 was the stronger nino extreme on my list 2012 never fully materialized and was quite a bit hotter. 

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it's looking pretty solid that May could finish below normal for the month as well. June looks to start off below normal too for the first 10 days if not longer

 

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19 hours ago, Mitchg said:

2009 was the stronger nino extreme on my list 2012 never fully materialized and was quite a bit hotter. 

It has been wet, which is never a bad thing.

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

it's looking pretty solid that May could finish below normal for the month as well. June looks to start off below normal too for the first 10 days if not longer

 

Close counts in horse shoes and monthly normals. :bye:  According to latest Mt. Holly ccf for rest of month, PHL ends up below normal for month of May by 0.1F.

 

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