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Rainshadow

From The Frost Job To The VAY Crush Job To The 90s Club Within 10 Days

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Well Wednesday thru maybe Friday of this week it looks like more of us are going to join the '90s club before a backdoor lowers temps.  As Tom has been saying Thursday looks like the most legit and widespread chance as morning mins will be higher and the air mass is in place.  Wednesday might come close as warmer air advects in. But maybe all of this rain and cooler start keeps the bouncer from letting us in.  Backdoor timing will determine Friday's outcome.  

The soon-to-be implemented GFS looks to have a better handle on 2m temps than the current GFS version (appropriately in blue on this graph).

Enjoy. :blink:

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Good news, bad news.

EC & GFS are agreeing on the back door sparing Friday.  The whole warming pattern is faster, so now Wednesday has a chance too.  If the GGEM & UKMET are right Friday still has a chance too with a slower backdoor.  And of course, the weekend looks iffy.

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GFS looks to wet to me for this coming weekend. I can see some storms later friday with front, then maybe Monday. But the gfs chance every day this weekend looks overdone to me

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

GFS looks to wet to me for this coming weekend. I can see some storms later friday with front, then maybe Monday. But the gfs chance every day this weekend looks overdone to me

The 06z GFS goes from this Tuesday the 16th until Tuesday the 30th before its completely rain free for a calendar day within the entire Mount Holly CWA.  So basically when its giving you pcpn chances unless there is other model corroboration its telling you the sun is rising in the east.   To that end the can ggem (no stranger to pez dispensing pcpn either) does look wet on the weekend, the ukmet maybe iffier for Sunday, but looks showery on Saturday. 

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

GFS looks to wet to me for this coming weekend. I can see some storms later friday with front, then maybe Monday. But the gfs chance every day this weekend looks overdone to me

I guess we will see if the Euro is as good at being Dr. No as it initially was the best last weekend at being Dr. Yes.  Ukie looks dry Saturday, maybe wet on Sunday.  GFS busy bringing 540 thicknesses and highs in the mid 60s for Memorial Day weekend (I absolutely dont believe it).

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Latest and greatest, Wednesday looks like one of those days where Harrisburg, Lancaster & Reading hit 90 and Philly points east just fall short (ongoing warmth during the day advecting in).

Thursday looks like the slam dunk 90s club addition for more sites that dont have some elevation relief.  Predicted dew points in the 60s too. Models tend to overforecast dew points early in the season, they mix more than they think without any convergent boundary to pool them (which there wont be on either Wednesday or Thursday).

Friday iffy, but wouldnt be surprised if the backdoor cfp is too fast. Kind of odd to see the Euro still the fastest. "Core" of the heat may pass offshore at night.  One of those occasions where the front isnt through, but the daytime high is at or slightly below (degree or two at most) previous day because we have to home grow more of the heat.

 

 

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Looks like euro is delaying front till later friday. So now wed-fri all have shot at 90+ if the slower front is true

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like euro is delaying front till later friday. So now wed-fri all have shot at 90+ if the slower front is true

I am really hating this month.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like euro is delaying front till later friday. So now wed-fri all have shot at 90+ if the slower front is true

On the plus side Saturday is looking universally nice and Sunday is about a 50/50 split among the big four for pcpn moving back in.

 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like euro is delaying front till later friday. So now wed-fri all have shot at 90+ if the slower front is true

Faster solutions this time of year dont usually work. 

Euro has to become more consistent (like the OP GFS being constantly a cold run and overall too cold with 2m temps). ;)

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On 5/15/2017 at 9:50 AM, tombo82685 said:

GFS looks to wet to me for this coming weekend. I can see some storms later friday with front, then maybe Monday. But the gfs chance every day this weekend looks overdone to me

If EMC's purpose to have us not miss the current version of the OP GFS they are doing an excellent job.  In terms of sensible weather its been fourth behind the big three for our area since (it feels like) February. Another crash and burn forecast by it well underway for this weekend. Euro well on its way to crush job the GFS  again.  I dont know the purpose of pez dispensing Yukon la la land runs, I guess its better than the 100 plus forecasts it did from mid July to mid August of last year. 

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

If EMC's purpose to have us not miss the current version of the OP GFS they are doing an excellent job.  In terms of sensible weather its been fourth behind the big three for our area since (it feels like) February. Another crash and burn forecast by it well underway for this weekend. Euro well on its way to crush job the GFS  again.  I dont know the purpose of pez dispensing Yukon la la land runs, I guess its better than the 100 plus forecasts it did from mid July to mid August of last year. 

The outlandish cold runs out past 10 days really aren't an issue to me because model scores are blah then. Heck even the euro ens members have low temps colder than the gfs. Inside 10 days is when it matters and it seems that once it gets to that timeframe it's gone. It's just like a euro mega bomb at day 10 or shoving a hurricane into the east coast. It's at the end of the run so the pendulum swinging from one way or the other is to be expected. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

The outlandish cold runs out past 10 days really aren't an issue to me because model scores are blah then. Heck even the euro ens members have low temps colder than the gfs. Inside 10 days is when it matters and it seems that once it gets to that timeframe it's gone. It's just like a euro mega bomb at day 10 or shoving a hurricane into the east coast. It's at the end of the run so the pendulum swinging from one way or the other is to be expected. 

What is occurring this week on the OP GFS disappeared right around day 10.  What gets me is not the details being wrong (which it will be), but the pattern is not even right or close.

 

The first cold shot in that thread was within 10 days when I started the thread and the average error was -4.2F

The Easter Weekend alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was 2 degrees above normal and the bias error was -11.8F

The Easter Week alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was exactly normal and the bias error was -10.8F

The Rest of April alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was 1 degree below normal and the bias error was -11.1F

The Let's Rush In The Cold Air Too Soo Pre-Cinco De Mayo Cold Snap the lowest temperature was 3 degrees below normal and the bias error was -9.8F

The Post Cinco De Mayo Cold Snap pattern was correctly outlooked, but the plethora of sub 40 mins did not occur. Nextgen GFS should solve that 2m problem

The "This Week" Cool Snap resulted in record high temps.

I'll even give the OP GFS the first one in la la land times being correct, that makes the model 2 of 7 of "calling" unseasonably cold patterns in the beyond deterministic period. There may be a

reason this error is tolerated (pcpn skill would even be worse, would be calling for 90s by day 12 all of the time); I'm just glad it may be coming to an end with the new upgrade.

 

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10 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

What is occurring this week on the OP GFS disappeared right around day 10.  What gets me is not the details being wrong (which it will be), but the pattern is not even right or close.

 

The first cold shot in that thread was within 10 days when I started the thread and the average error was -4.2F

The Easter Weekend alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was 2 degrees above normal and the bias error was -11.8F

The Easter Week alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was exactly normal and the bias error was -10.8F

The Rest of April alleged cold shot the lowest temperature was 1 degree below normal and the bias error was -11.1F

The Let's Rush In The Cold Air Too Soo Pre-Cinco De Mayo Cold Snap the lowest temperature was 3 degrees below normal and the bias error was -9.8F

The Post Cinco De Mayo Cold Snap pattern was correctly outlooked, but the plethora of sub 40 mins did not occur. Nextgen GFS should solve that 2m problem

The "This Week" Cool Snap resulted in record high temps.

I'll even give the OP GFS the first one in la la land times being correct, that makes the model 2 of 7 of "calling" unseasonably cold patterns in the beyond deterministic period. There may be a

reason this error is tolerated (pcpn skill would even be worse, would be calling for 90s by day 12 all of the time); I'm just glad it may be coming to an end with the new upgrade.

 

Well yea inside 10 days we know the gfs is always to cold in phl, just a given. I wish the gfs was only run to day 10, or have the euro go to day 15. I bet you would get some gfs like scenarios as well. 

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well yea inside 10 days we know the gfs is always to cold in phl, just a given. I wish the gfs was only run to day 10, or have the euro go to day 15. I bet you would get some gfs like scenarios as well. 

But since the Euro doesnt use its 6 hr forecast as a "first guess", an off the rails op run would probably disappear faster than it does with the GFS.  The other thread pretty much proves with patterns the skill level is around day 9 and beyond that, see what you want to see.  

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well yea inside 10 days we know the gfs is always to cold in phl, just a given. I wish the gfs was only run to day 10, or have the euro go to day 15. I bet you would get some gfs like scenarios as well. 

Take a look at the vanishing 540 thickness on this trend and how it took more than one run once 540 was introduced into Minnesota for it to be gone. By the most recent run, one can barely find one.   This is not la la land we are in.  I know you know...

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