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MBY Snowfall Totals

Found 6 results

  1. Whether it gets named or not, there is decent model agreement about heavy rain at the least working its way into Delaware and New Jersey. Slow moving closed circulations in July don't make for good outcomes.
  2. In regards to next weeks system, looking over the eps members that do bring some snow into the area, there is one common theme. While they all have unfavorable primary, they all do agree that to get snow you have to develop the coastal low further south into se va, then blow it up as it hits nj. The earlier coastal formation and strong low would then produce just enough cold air for snow. So you need to rely on, earlier coastal development, sub 982 system off nj, then some dynamic cooling as it pulls colder air into the system.
  3. Welp, the rain has started here already. Post your obs.
  4. The GFS is really wound up and vigorous with this system at this point. Below is the UKMET QPF forecast for the heaviest 24hr segment:
  5. Well if amounts come close and dont become too much of a good thing, our area in PA & NJ can use an event like this. The 00z op of the GFS was on the warm side of the members (hence my 70F for a high), but its toasty nonetheless with predicted dew points pushing 60 (Tom loving those dews ) . Its not unheard of to get thunder in situations like this with us in the predicted warm sector and I used to talk about the annual squall line thunderstorm passage every November. I do recall one December 1st in which we issued double digit warnings. The Euro looks much wetter (maybe twice as much in some of our area) and is stingier with getting more of our area into the warm sector. There is convection involved (warm sector or not, 850/500 mb total totals get well into the 40s), so this lowers model qpf skill even more, regardless this is the wettest looking system we have had in quite a while.
  6. Line is starting to forum out wes, sun is filtering through broken cloud deck. CAPE values in the 1500-2500 range, LI -3 to -5 support thunderstorm development. Bulk shear is decent, but the best shear remains to the north. Should see a broken line or some storms start to pop in this airmass. PWATS in the 1.7-2 support heavy rainfall with any storm. Primary issue with this is wind and heavy rainfall. Hail shouldn't be a big issue nor tornadoes. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NJ...ERN/SRN PA...MD...NRN DE...ERN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 061654Z - 061930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR RISK MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AHEAD OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED COLD ANALYZED FROM S-CNTRL NY TO NRN KY. PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXES...DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS...FRONTAL ASCENT...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALL SERVE AS FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMIDST MINIMAL CAPPING. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S...MODERATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FACILITATING LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERING. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE TSTMS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/CONVERGENCE IMPLIED BY AREA VWPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS...THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION IN THE MID LEVELS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALL TEND TO MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY DENSER CLUSTERS OF DMGG WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH MORE PROMINENT MULTICELL TSTMS -- ESPECIALLY FROM E-CNTRL PA INTO NRN/CNTRL NJ -- AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
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