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Everything posted by retiredwxman

  1. offshore location not so good for nj coast unless it is farther e or se. Means more of a n/ne wind. Bad for tidal flooding and also beach erosion, especially since it could be long duration. Interesting looking longer range, GFS moves it out to sea then loops it back west (too far east to hit us again) before moving away finally.
  2. I sorta hope the models are right giving us rain from Hermine. An inland track and then off the sj coast would be good for heavy rain over the philly region. With Tropical Systems, the heaviest rain tends to be on the west side of the track, due to circulation and friction (and uplift in our area). We need the rain, but lets keep it under 5 inches so any flooding is lessened. An inland track would also help keep winds from being too strong and limit beach erosion as southerly and southeast winds limit beach erosion vs the n/ne winds which cause erosion.
  3. retiredwxman

    Medium - long range tropics

    Amazing the flip flop of the GFS and how bad it can be long range. The 12z run on Aug 27th for 384 showed a strong cold front in ohio valley and not tropical conditions. The 18z is just the opposite with a strong hurricane approaching the E Coast. Anyone else betting that this is wrong.
  4. Just something I came across that may interest all of us. I wish I could afford it. I didn't know where to post this, but thought medium and long range might apply since it is happening the next few weeks. I am talking about the first cruise through the Northwest passage/Canadian Northwest passage. Here is a link... http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2016/08/25/where-luxury-meets-danger-inside-first-northwest-passage-cruise.html It costs minimum 22k per person. It should last 35 days. It starts in Alaska and ends in New York City. I could not find the exact dates of the cruise. The article mentions they will have an ice breaker escort and helicopters at the ready if needed. Bob
  5. I hope the cool down is correct. Normals after Labor day are around 80, so even above normal is not bad, as long as it isn't record highs. We do need rain though. So far out in time, I don't trust much in way of models too long range. Any hurricane or typhoon entering the jetstream can have a big impact and change the worldwide pattern.
  6. Finally the zero isotherm gets close to the US in Maine. Per the ECMWF from 12z Thu, the 10 day fcst for 12z Sep 4 shows the zero isotherm at h8 just nw of Maine. With the Tropical systems and now the H8 zero, Autumn is finally showing up. Bob
  7. retiredwxman

    Medium - long range tropics

    I was just looking at the ECMWF and it looks like Fl Panhandle after Miami/Keys. This far out though, all of FL and the Gulf Coast should be paying attention. NHC 5 day also supports a storm headed to Fla. Amazing to also see GEM and UKMET from 12z also show a system heading to east coast of FL. The ECMWF looks to be the farthest South. Hoping for colder weather and snow in as little as 3 months. Bob
  8. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    If you or anyone who skis want to ski Europe, I highly recommend it. They have skiing for all abilities, but depending on resort, some have more easy, others, more of the difficult, just like in USA. Skiing in Europe is different from here. The food is much better and I like to say that in the US we eat to ski, but in Europe we ski to eat. Also, if you do want to go, just check out the ski clubs. Most include breakfast and dinner at the ski resort, as well as a room and transportation. They list their trips in the summer and the overseas ones usually book quickly. Some clubs do an extension after the ski portion of 1 week and visit a nearby major city. If anyone wants a ski club recommendation, please send me a private message.
  9. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    Yes they have. The French Alps where we will be skiing are 95 percent open. The 5 percent that isn't open is the extreme skiing which I avoid. With the dump they should get this coming weekend, I expect pristine skiing conditions.
  10. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    They are beautiful and totally different vs N. America including the Rockies.
  11. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    Maybe it is too early to start a new thread for next sunday possible storm, but if it happens, my new snowblower jinx will still be in effect since I will be out of the country. However, I will be seeing my own deep snow storm in the French Alps (skiing). Can't call it a blizzard there since they don't usually get the wind with their storms. Interesting progs on both the ECMWF and GFS for that area next Sunday Feb 7.
  12. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    are you sure you don't want to be call "Snowshadow", we already have "Rainshadow"
  13. retiredwxman

    Winter banter Thread

    I hate to say this, but I have a "feeling" we won't see any more big snows in southern NJ. My reasoning is that I just upgraded my snowblower and bought a new one. My old one still runs OK, but I decided to go to a 2 stage. I have a big driveway and sidewalk, but it was more work getting rid of the snow/slush that the plows piled at the bottom of my driveway. I hope I get to use the new blower, but we all know about a jinx when you buy a new one.
  14. retiredwxman

    1/22-1/24/2016 Storm OBS

    Just measured 4.3 inches here in Westampton, about 1 mile from NWS office. Bedtime.
  15. I am not predicting this, but am just answering your question... 1. We could get tstms in the warm sector to the east of the low that "steals" moisture and blocks the flow of moisture into the system. 2. The models are wrong and the system moves out to sea much faster that expected. 3. More warm air moves inland than expected. 4. The very heavy snow stays to the south (opposite of number 3) Again, I do not expect any of the above.
  16. The instability could be with a dry slot, but many times it is with the strongest waa as colder air continues to move in or develop aloft. Are you able to see any of the diagonal or cross wise instability in any of your procedures?
  17. I was sorta skeptical about this storm for the region around PHL 2 days ago even though the models did show it coming. However, after watching the last several runs of different models, I am now a believer. I orginally was thinking, a storm moving offshore near ORF and heading ENE out to sea, how do we get the high pcpn amounts fcst. Now I can see how it happens. One thing I like to look at is model dynamics and support for heavy pcpn that may be forecast. In another words, the why of the model, not just what the model is forecasting. After looking at the latest NAM and GFS, First, we are forecast to have pcp water values over phl of 6 to 7 tenths of an inch. For wintertime, this is decent. Also, I see good support for the 12 inch plus forecast and even 18 inches like is being forecasted. Soundings are looking like there is some instability aloft, although weak, but with the strong winds and lift, I would also expect some crosswise instability as well (I hope I got the term correct) but do not have any maps to see this. However, with strong lift that will occur and after looking at the winds aloft showing strong divergence aloft too, this combination should line up and allow snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and maybe even a bit more underneath any areas with convective banding and possible thundersnows.
  18. I think they are well timed, just over 48 hrs in advance. They are watches, not warnings.
  19. Based on your graphic, easily over 20 knots.
  20. Of course they will, but still more than 10:1.
  21. Good luck to all operational forecasters. It is easy sitting here and looking at the weather pattern now that I am retired. However, when you actually have to forecast numbers and pinpoint the forecast by location, amount and time, that is not so easy.
  22. Be careful assuming looking at the very high QPF's fcst by the models. This far away from the high precip moisture that is available on the e and se side of the low you will need very strong dynamics and/or instability to squeeze that amount out. M However, I still think snow amounts in excess of a foot should fall near PHL. Looking at the soundings, the snow formation zone looks to be 650 to 600 mb meaning good dendritic formation based on the fcst temps in this layer. This means better than 10:1 ratios. Considering my expected higher ratios, these higher ratios should offset the lower qpfs that I expect. If convection gets this far north, then watch out, but based on current models runs, I think most of this convection should stay to the south.
  23. Just my 2 cents but... I don't see much if any sleet or mixed pcpn up to phl this run. With the upper low tracking ene rather than up the coast, it will be hard to get enough warm air this far north to get mix. Using the ECMWF, the zero line at h8 is S of State of Delaware. Even though some warmer air may be up to 800 or even 750 mb, I dont see it making it up here. I also looked at the GFS and it seems too cold for any mix based on track and soundings. GFS soundings for Sat night imply embedded convection with some instability around 600 mb and above. Psbl thundersnow if it forms, I do see a difference between the 72hr GFS and ECMWF and this has to do with the circulation around the closed upper low to the south. Visually the GFS seems a bit more expansive than the ECMWF. In my mind this means the GFS also means a more northern extent to the very heavy snow and if it forms, any thundersnow. Something to watch when we get closer is for an inverted trough to form off the east coast that will suggest the track of the sfc low and how far north the core of the system can get. I know this is old style fcstg, but if the trough does not get up to the Jersey coastal waters, then all pcpn should be snow since the warmer air will be staying to the south.