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ezweather

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About ezweather

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    Voorhees, NJ

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  1. ezweather

    2018/2019 snow total thread

    Found this funny clip.. All those false alarms we saw in the models. Music fits the somber mood.. No doubt this winter sucked. If the season goes out with no big bang type of a storm, it will be those miserable messy winters like 1986. Better yet, 1972. Well, we did get a few inches than that, but the lack of nice coastal storms. Then we'll turn the chapter to the severe weather season.
  2. Going to ask Andy. I think it was the 3km NAM, but only shows NAM.
  3. Hi Tony, I'm using this site https://www.f5wx.com. So, using their table format. Interesting how the numbers vary from site to site. I wish more sites would have a nice table setup and show trends like show numbers increasing or going down like with snowfall or how much of its is ice accumulation or sleet. Looks like the new 12z NAM has about 4 inches snow and 0.25 inches of ice for Voorhees. Will wait to see other model guidance. Still hate the setup without any blocking to the north and no nice big ridge in the west. But, we'll take what we can get. I do like that 3 to 5 inch range for snowfall for the area.
  4. Doing the good old fashion spreadsheet using F5WX data site. Figure to share this with everyone. Very interesting seeing how high the ice accumulations are looking. Looks like Wednesday is a great telework data. Betting DC will shutdown. Doesn't take much down there to shut things down. Current state of the indices AO: Positive NAO: Positive PNA: Negative MJO Phase: 8 Be nice if someone had a built in dashboard, where it show you some tabular numbers, trend numbers, etc and color code them. Color scheme is similar to NWS ones. By the way, Mount Holly has their Enhanced Weather Hazard dashboard https://www.weather.gov/phi/ehwo
  5. So, perhaps another ice storm for most of PA on the Euro run for next Tuesday night/Wednesday. Pretty much of a repeat of what we saw this week. But that -PNA continues strong on this run. I guess the only way we can manage to get any kind of wintry weather is more of these overrunning events or systems that stay week. The key will be how much the southeast ridge flexes its muscle.
  6. I had to post the 850 temp anomaly map here for next Thursday. How about this for a boundary. Check this out..
  7. With the MJO heading toward Phase 8, sure will be interesting to see how the next two weeks goes. Perhaps, we get into a much favorable setup for snowfall the next two weeks. For the upper air, perhaps we can keep that ridge at bay off the east and make it flatter, which would make it easier to tap the cold air and finally have a favorable storm track. So, theoretically, we could be entering a period with many systems that could bring us many shots at snow. But, let's see how things setup the next few days and whether we finally get a favorable storm track.
  8. Just looking at the recent image posted above. Really hope as we get into the weekend, we really have some strong highs and ones that don't go flying off.
  9. Well, I know some of you probably looked at the 18z GFS experimental. I finally did and loved the solution, but one thats a nice long duration one. So, let's see, the event starts from early Tuesday evening and ends Thursday afternoon. If only we can bottle up this solution and see it showed by more model guidance like over the weekend. But in this current pattern, it will be very tough to achieve. I won't even post the snowfall maps. But I do like this 500mb map. I'll paste one. The ridge is in a great spot, allowing for this storm to deepen. But do we believe that coastal low can take over. What is interesting is that we arctic highs over Canada and to stay just to the north of this system and blocking the storm from moving quickly. Do they hold and force the storm to be a slow mover. Anyway, thats it for that run. But like as Tombo pointed out, Euro says along with its ensembles Great Lakes special. So, for the time being, we'll just keep watching. Certainly should be at least interesting things to track. For now, everything should be on the table in terms of choices.
  10. I probably said this the last time post about the lack of a nice ridge out west, but this a different pattern. Perhaps a different way to get winter weather out our way. I do like how the models show ridging over Canada and that the high hopefully will not fly off the coast. The key will be if we hold onto the idea of this system being forced to redevelop offshore. Now if by the weekend, we keep seeing the models confirm what we're seeing then we really have something cool to watch. Certainly looks active, but a could be a lot of borderline events. I still go back to the hurricane season, where it was literally dead, but man, did it get very active. So, perhaps we see something similar in terms of how many systems we'll need to track. After this storm goes by, the GFS has a very cold look to it and more storms to track.
  11. What really hurts with this setup, is no ridge over the Western US. So, we'll have to how this setup evolves and whether the coastal low takes over quicker versus primary.
  12. A few more runs and we definitely have a very interesting winter weather event for next Tuesday into early Wednesday. If you look at the 500mb anomaly map, you can see how there's some blocking over Canada. Definitely an active pattern coming up. Plus, MJO moving into Phase 8 should really help.
  13. This has been a very tough year to get that classic big PNA positioned over the Western US. If we got that, man, we be absolutely in business. But what the EPS show, could be one where we would get a bunch overrunning events. Perhaps a few long duration type events too. So, once we get past the 10th of February, it should get very interesting.
  14. Thanks Tony. I think next week you'll get some golfing in. After the deep freeze we'll get, 40s will feel like the 50s. But that wind tends to make it cold on the golf course.
  15. I do like the orange shading up near Greenland. Keeping an eye on whether we can get that much needed blocking. I'll lean toward the blocking to take shape as we head into the 2nd week of February and into March. At least thats the theory from some of seasons forecasters out there. I think this winter is going to be a late starter and yep, I think we could be in for a colder spring. But thats just speculation at this point. Now the 12z EPS shows the trough over the west. Not exactly, what we want, but there is some progress. Hopefully, we can shift that ridge toward the Western US. Still, I like how we have some hint of ridging near Greenland. For you Tony, I know you love the warm weather and yes that much needed golf game. For us snow lovers, we need that big snow. Then we're all good. Anyway, the hunt continues for the big snows.
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