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About ezweather

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    Voorhees, NJ

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  1. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Watching the 12z GFS come in. Like in jeopardy, Alex, I'll take the 228 upper panel for 500. If what the GFS shows and we have a long ways to go, get that ridge to pop in the west and the way that block is displayed, we could be in a big winter storm. Of course, we'll see this come and go. Still a lot of moving pieces, but had to pass that observation. Actually, 240 looks even nicer. Probably will disappear from the GFS, but if we saw models latch onto this idea, watch out. As DT would say, that big doggy ready to come out to play. Of course it would help if I look at the surface, but the upper air looked nice. Anyway, we'll see how this all plays out. At least we get the ridge to finally pop over the Western US via this run.
  2. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The upper air for the Euro is just ugly. You really need that upper air low to dig a south. But even the whole run no western ridge popping yet. But this is just speculation as we have to wait a bunch more model runs to come in to see how this all plays out. Just a lot of moving pieces to this puzzle.
  3. I'm speaking too if we had a west based -NAO, get that key blocking, plus -AO, you have a way better setup than the pattern we're in now. The pattern now is just aweful. Not good if you want big snowfalls. The 2009-2010 was great, but we're missing the weak El Nino. But for the current pattern, then thats probably best way to get snows, but for me, I want a really big storm, kind of like a 2 day event. But right now, its just not there..
  4. Not seeing the NAO head to negative. Saw DT's podcast and showed the the MJO may die as it reach phase 8. Just not a great pattern right now. Still have to see how the second half of the month will play out. I guess for now, plenty of systems cutting west, plus the flow is so darn fast. Just not allowing any system to dig and bomb near us.
  5. Sounds about right Mitch. How about another President's Day blizzard special. Before we wrap up this winter season, I like see a day winter storm special. Never like to see a 10 hour event. A nice long duration is the way to go.
  6. I think the takeaway so far from the evening runs is that the precip shield extends further north and west of the center. I think that really fits to what we're going to see. I do think this system can have a serious deformation band say from VA north and east up through say Philly then up to eastern New England.. Given the insane intensity with this storm, you can't rule it out. This is an extreme event, so everything is on the table. Definitely want to see where that convection fires up and how this storm takes shape. No doubt satellite and radar tomorrow will be very telling as to whether we'll get hammered by this storm or just a glancing blow. The good thing is that the 3KM NAM showed heavier amounts over NJ. We have the RGEM showing something similar. So, that risk for heavier snow to extend into NJ may be there and might extend back to Philly. Anyway, we'll see how this plays out.
  7. Wow, this storm will either be a feast or famine. Yeh, probably go with 1 to 3 inches back near Philly. I think 6 inches near the coast is good.
  8. The thing we're all hoping for is not only the placement of the low, but the precip shield. How far west can it extend. How will the deformation band setup. Given that this will be a powerful storm, how large will the deformation band be? No question about it, we'll all be glued watching satellite and radar and hoping we see that precip shield extend well inland or not watch it extend. I keep saying perhaps, given the extreme type of event this storm will be and the intense arctic air coming down, perhaps we will get a very nice surprise. Its either a light snowfall or a very big snowfall.
  9. I'll say one thing, that precip shield from CMC looks really nice. Given how cold it will be, can see some high ratios. I like the 6 to 10 range. But the winds are going to be brutal.
  10. Great posts by Ant. See below. He mentioned about its not just about the placement of the low, but how the back edge will do with this event. Do agree GFS is catching up. I still like to see the 500mb height lines at our latitude be more bent to the north. I like like what the NAM and CMC does with the precip shield. Would not be surprised to see heavy snow occur from the NC up through NJ and eastern New England. Of course, we monitor this hour by hour. The other thing will be the strong winds and just brutal cold temps. Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 2m2 minutes ago More Plot the 850mb-500mb wind over Mid Atlantic and watch where the confluence in wind sets up. These deformation zones can end up snowier than modeled.
  11. Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?

    Here's the 00z GFS Snowfall totals...
  12. Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?

    Looking over the NAM runs this evening. Amazed how close the low tracks to the coast. Certainly would cut the totals a lot if you take the run verbatim, especially south and east of Philly. Eagerly will be looking see how things verify with the track of this storm. Just not sure I buy the solution of the low tracking that close to the coast.
  13. Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?

    Let's hope the models keep trending this way in the morning. What a storm this would be for March...
  14. Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?

    Yeh, here's the snowfall map at 42 hour.. Pretty impressive with 983 low to our east at this point.
  15. Rocky III, The Knockout Blow?

    Okay, had to post the 3KM NAM total snowfall map..