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Treckasec

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  • Location:
    Tabernacle, NJ

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  • MBY Snowfall Totals
    15.5

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  1. We'll see if the models trend towards more instability as we draw closer to the event, but my guess is that there'll be less instability than last event... Maybe some gusty winds with the LLJ, which isolated strong convection could mix down more of. Otherwise, it seems like severe weather may not be so much of an issue with this event. With that said, it should be pretty rainy!
  2. Treckasec

    enhanced risk of severe storms 4/14-4/15

    MBY, winds gusted between 30-40 mph for brief times... Otherwise, heavy rain was the most notable weather. With that said, this was a pretty solid severe weather event regionwide, especially when considering not only the time of year, but the time of day as well.
  3. Treckasec

    enhanced risk of severe storms 4/14-4/15

    I'll be surprised to get anything more from these thunderstorms I'm guessing that we'll see a line of generally "meh" thunderstorms, though I suppose we could see some nocturnal spinnies, as well as some bowing segments within the line to bring down some of the strong winds from the LLJ.
  4. Treckasec

    The Near 80(s) Club, Version 4/13.

    Elevated marine shank cells tomorrow It's beginning to feel a lot like spring! At least we can enjoy the pleasant weather, though! My severe weather expectations for this year are to be better (IMBY) than last year, which can be too difficult to achieve... Right?
  5. Treckasec

    Winter 2018/2019 vent/meltdown thread

    Nothing like 25" of disappointment! There was certainly a lot of hype surrounding this winter, and even though we managed to get snow, the lack of warning-level snows definitely made this winter feel less impressive. For MBY, I think I'll go with a C- There have been a fair number of snow events this year, but the majority of them have mixed with sleet/rain during some point in the event. In addition, no snow events have reached Winter Storm Warning criteria MBY. There have also been some close brushes with snowstorms that could have been fun, such as the miss in December, as well as a snowstorm in January that hit D.C., but not so much our area.
  6. Treckasec

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    Agreed... Models seem to underestimate the push of warm air aloft, which I've experienced in other storms as a result of my location ... Though this storm is certainly no exception! It looks like ~0.5" of snow here before changing over.
  7. Treckasec

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    I can't tell if it's truly getting beat back, or if it's just hard to see due to its proximity to the radar... Here's the mixing line according to KDOX.
  8. Treckasec

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    That sleet/mixing line is getting pretty close ... Flipped to all snow here, but I'm not sure for how long.
  9. Treckasec

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    Vicious sun angle
  10. Treckasec

    March 3rd-4th SWFE. Stay low and go

    It would be nice to get close to 6" ! We'll certainly have to wait and see ... I imagine that, even with .5" QPF, melting + <10:1 ratios would result in 2-4" snow totals at best. Such is the winter of 18-19
  11. Treckasec

    March 3rd-4th SWFE. Stay low and go

    I'm surprised to see that the NWS is forecasting 6-7" for my area, which is near Medford... I know that this science is meteorology, and not simply "modelology," but I haven't seen any/many models give that much snow in my area, or even SE of I-95 really. At least, not without factoring in ratios and melting. It seems like the model consensus (if there is one) is that the mix line will fall along I-95, which would reduce totals a good bit in areas like mine. Also, I feel like, in events like these, the mix line tends to move north faster/move a greater distance than models predict as well (not a scientific observation) ... It would be nice to sneak in at least one 6" storm this winter, but this storm is reminding me a bit of 3/14/17 (I'm sure the storm itself was set up differently, but it feels like the snow->rain outcome will be the same here).
  12. That's what happens when weenies are deprived of SECS
  13. Treckasec

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    Tabernacle, NJ It seems that there has been a teensy bit of meltage since the snow stopped around an hour or so ago, but I measured 1.5" just now. Good enough for me! We'll be cashing in on snowstorms and arctic air soon enough!!!
  14. Give it until the end of February, and then we can start thinking about canceling winter... 8 days until we really get into the pattern change, and ~5-6 days until the models even really get a clue with our next storm chance. We've all been dealing with the boring weather lately, but we can all wait a few more days too We can enjoy our appetizer tonight/tomorrow as well, even if we're only getting a little bit of snow! Suppression flakes > cold rain
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