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Treckasec

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Treckasec last won the day on December 27 2019

Treckasec had the most liked content!

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    Tabernacle, NJ

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  1. @ACwx I've been thinking a lot about the same thing! I feel that people's curiosity and questions about the weather have outran what our current technology can answer. Our limit for weather forecasts that are consistently accurate (to a degree) seems to be about a week. While I love that more dedicated weather enthusiasts and meteorologists conduct research on predicting the weather beyond this time frame, I really wish that these more experimental things weren't shared so frequently for the public to see. This is why so few trust meteorologists... Yet, businesses and the media pressure them into doing things beyond any human's capabilities.
  2. I've had roughly the same amount of snow here as you have, just to confirm that the map is a bit inflated with its snow totals. Maybe it doesn't account for melting due to warm ground temperatures when snow is being recording on the radar? I'm not sure...
  3. I'm not really impressed, either... I feel that events with (relatively) higher shear seem to get more attention from the SPC, and given that there is some directional component, I certainly understand why! But I don't think that tomorrow seems like an enhanced risk day... Moist skew-t profile with skinny cape makes me hedge against much severe tomorrow, though thunderstorm days like these, with the moist profile + low level shear & some curvature in hodograph, makes me think there's a potential for a couple weakly rotating storms that could produce a tornado. Strong wind gusts don't seem particularly likely given there not being much DCAPE without any dry air aloft, though these adequate shear + thin, unimpressive CAPE days make me think of weak/meh QLCS's.
  4. Despite being a little ways away from this storm, it must've brought through some outflow here... Estimating 30 MPH gusts, which made it pretty breezy out here! The lightning frequency from this storm seems a bit less now that it must be gusting out a bit.
  5. That was an interesting storm! The gustiest winds lasted for ~20 minutes after the gust front first hit. Even now, there are some breezes going through... Though there was not much rain, the wind was pretty strong! Not severe, but there were some strong pushes of wind.
  6. Tabernacle, NJ - Rainfall Totals (Data from PWS Station KNJTABER5) 6-16-19 Sunday: 0.12" 6-17-19 Monday: 0.36" 6-18-19 Tuesday: 0.30" 6-19-19 Wednesday: 6.34" 6-20-19 Thursday: 1.88" 6-21-19 Friday: 0.05" Total: 9.05" Just a tad rainy...
  7. Downburst signature ... @SouthernNJ's favorite Mainly looks like sub-severe thunderstorms, though heavy rain/flooding is definitely a threat. Might be some pockets of gustier winds, too (like in areas with downbursts, like shown above)
  8. It'll be interesting to see how today plays out ... Compared to some of our other "severe" days this week, there are actually some pockets of drier air aloft, rather than the completely saturated atmosphere profiles we've typically been seeing. This should lead to some higher DCAPE values (up to, but generally below, 1,000 J/kg) which provides a somewhat better potential for gusty winds in some storms. 1,500 J/kg - 2,000 J/kg MLCAPE + 30-40 kt SFC-6km shear, along with some DCAPE, should be enough to fuel some strong/severe storms, though the tendency this week has been for storms to not be very strong despite CAPE/shear, but that might've been due to 1) water-loading of updrafts, and 2) too weak of a source of lift ... This tendency makes me wary to really be all-in for severe weather for today, but today's a new day with some more variables at play, and considering the standing puddles and saturated soil, I wonder if storms could produce enough wind to knock over trees in this environment.
  9. Wow... Pretty widespread flooding event occurring it seems. Woke up to another torrential downpour, with rainfall amounts approaching an inch since midnight. Meanwhile, areas to my west are getting a significant amount of rainfall.
  10. Rainfall finally ending now... Weather stations within a few miles from my area are reporting from 5.00" of rain, up to ~6.50" of rain.
  11. As the storms moved in, there were some breezy conditions in Tabernacle with wind gusts I'd estimate between 20-30... Not very windy, but I can confirm that the elevated velocities on radar did transfer (though there were not any damaging wind gusts IMBY) EDIT: Nearby sensors recording between 2" and 2.5" of rain within the past hour... Yard is back to being as flooded as it was back in the wintertime—beyond that by now. Pretty impressive train of storms.
  12. Heard a big bang of thunder a few minutes ago from this strong storm to my northwest... Looks like a bit of weak rotation in the storm, too.
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