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Treckasec

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    Tabernacle, NJ

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  • MBY Snowfall Totals
    12.5

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  1. That's what happens when weenies are deprived of SECS
  2. Treckasec

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    Tabernacle, NJ It seems that there has been a teensy bit of meltage since the snow stopped around an hour or so ago, but I measured 1.5" just now. Good enough for me! We'll be cashing in on snowstorms and arctic air soon enough!!!
  3. Give it until the end of February, and then we can start thinking about canceling winter... 8 days until we really get into the pattern change, and ~5-6 days until the models even really get a clue with our next storm chance. We've all been dealing with the boring weather lately, but we can all wait a few more days too We can enjoy our appetizer tonight/tomorrow as well, even if we're only getting a little bit of snow! Suppression flakes > cold rain
  4. I think that the Mt Holly NWS map is pretty solid ... Maybe even a bit higher than my own expectations for the region at the moment! Even with the very anemic QPF, ratios may bump up snow totals by a half inch to an inch, though my main concern regarding ratios is that insufficient lift/lift in the wrong areas, as well as snirga/dry air, will limit totals and ratios. I only bring this up because I've seen on a couple websites some talk about ratios due to the colder air mass, but ratios are a bit trickier than having the right amount of cold ... Just something to keep in mind! I know many of y'all are pretty aware of this, but I wanted to say it explicitly for anyone who may be banking on ratios. Regardless, should be better than 10:1
  5. NAM 6z (top) vs NAM 0z (bottom) With the better vort. interaction, the QPF totals respond accordingly. Snowfall maps are not impressive for our area, and considering that this is one run of the NAM "at range(ish)" of all models, it is not worth getting giddy about. Regardless, there are still some potential changes that could be made in the short-term that yield a better snowfall event (but not likely enough for a snowstorm in our locale)... Keep your eyes peeled, but without much model support (to my knowledge), don't higher any expectations. It's just worth keeping in mind the scope of possibilities left in this event, but without a more complete phase like some models were showing before, anything more than a 2-4" (3-5" max) event around here is unlikely.
  6. NAM 6z (top) vs. NAM 0z (bottom) The north stream vort/TPV swings by more favorably in the 6z NAM, allowing for a longer duration light-moderate snowfall event with better totals. Considering that these changes in the models are still occurring, I suppose it is *still* worth keeping an eye on, though I am a little surprised that these changes are still happening.
  7. Temper expectations, and enjoy the storm for whatever it ends up doing There will certainly be more snow chances to come this year! Getting bogged down over a little event like this isn't worth it ... And heck, the model watching isn't over just yet! I wouldn't dedicate too much time and emotions over this little storm though ... Just think of it as an appetizer! It's certainly better than what we've been dealt with the past few weeks, haha
  8. Honestly, a 2-4" event would be just fine. We get picky over modeled snow totals, but when a few inches of snow are on the ground, it isn't such a big deal... Especially if we can get the snow to fall for a day or so! With that said, we still aren't at our final solution just yet. Thursday night/Friday, we can start getting into mesoscale details. We're still trying to figure out the bigger picture, so it isn't even worth trying to crunch the QPF numbers and snow totals just yet anyways ... The 18z GFS is not a whiff though, haha... Certainly not like the early December event was!
  9. Treckasec

    Mother's Day weekend Enhanced risk and Heavy rainfall

    Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 102 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>025-027-PAZ070-071-101- 102-122100- New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden- Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Elkton, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Glassboro, Camden, Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Hammonton, Cape May Court House, Ocean City, Atlantic City, Wharton State Forest, Media, Philadelphia, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, and Kennett Square 102 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 ...NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west this afternoon. A favorable setup for severe storms will evolve late this afternoon and evening in southeastern Pennsylvania, eastern Maryland, southern New Jersey, and Delaware as these storms move eastward across the area during the 5 PM to 10 PM timeframe. These storms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flash flooding and more widespread urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated tornado is also possible, especially for locations near the Mason-Dixon Line that lie on the southern edge of the clearing skies this afternoon. Overall, the greatest risk with these storms will be damaging winds. $$ JRK
  10. Treckasec

    Mother's Day weekend Enhanced risk and Heavy rainfall

    Finally getting more sun and blue skies now... I'm not sure how much instability my area'll manage, even with the skies clearing out some.
  11. Nice band of IP and large, wet snowflakes here. Accumulating (sloppily) onto all surfaces.
  12. Amazing radar presentation from that 50-60 dbz band... True death band with 3"+ snowfall rates
  13. Not good ... lots of snapping, along with sounds of a transformer a few minutes ago.
  14. What's coming in looks pretty impressive... don't think I've seen reflectivites for snow without bright-banding that high!
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