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susqushawn

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susqushawn last won the day on January 15

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About susqushawn

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    Valley Forge, PA

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  1. Agree but the gfs would be a nice surprise, might even ban @tombo82685
  2. d10 euro similar to pattern we're trying to shake off. Ridge north of Hawaii, deep western trough. Feels like it's still in flux and hopefully that Aleutian low can pump an EPO ridge. EC is different, no pronounced SE ridge. The last 30 days that Aleutian low would cut through the ridge then drop down the west coast. I hope that doesn't reoccur and rinse repeat
  3. Euro past few days at tail end...almost as steady as my beloved GooFuS:
  4. I totally get what you are saying. I'd add that fortunately, I'd classify this as one of the more level headed forums in a general sense. Small quantity, high quality. I regularly peg myself as a weenie, because I am. To me that is displaying more emotion than logic at times, and overreacting to model output, despite having a decent knowledge base to draw from. I respect those that can maintain composure through all the ups and downs and I'm working each year to gravitate towards that demeanor. I have no idea how professional mets don't lose their minds. Very seldom do we ever see personal attacks. Assertions are occasionally challenged or countered, often in a respectful tone. It's a good core group and we all look forward to a good storm to track to share together. Not saying you don't think all this...just adding what popped in my mind
  5. forgot about wright weather, was that the first before eastern?
  6. We have to condition our minds to compare avg snowfall for next 6 weeks to actual...let's just consider YTD a sunk cost and move on. Given there is a glimmer of hope for the month of Feb, we can most certainly still hit remaining avg or above with just 1 big storm or a couple moderate.
  7. I like the rgem...it just seems a bit optimistic with the snow output. Warm nose has a tendency to outperform as does surface CAD, put the two together and I see the sleet line racing north a la the NAM. Rgem is a bit suspect showing snow when surface is above freezing:
  8. does anyone by chance have the maps that show what the patterns usually looks like with each phase?
  9. If we do get to P8 then this makes sense...we jumped the gun on a regime shift despite previous years' lessons on lag time. Hard to argue with the maps above that a P8 look seems reasonable in due time.
  10. January 25th wooooohooooo! Look at that pattern change. Can't wait!
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