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mshaffer526

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mshaffer526 last won the day on July 26

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About mshaffer526

  • Rank
    Skywarn #166444
  • Birthday 05/26/1983

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  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Home - Gap, PA (East Central LanCo) Work - West Chester
  • Interests
    Golf, hiking, sports, following the weather, and raising a great girl!

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  1. Headed to OBX on Friday for 9 days. Couldn't be happier with this outlook.
  2. You have nothing to feel bad about! It was a wild day yesterday.
  3. We ended up with 4.95" for a storm total in the CoCoRAHs gauge. The Ambient actually read 5.65" during that same time frame, but obviously the gauge is much more accurate.
  4. Wind starting to pick back up.
  5. Crazy that PSE&G is already saying Thursday for a lot of those New Jersey outages.
  6. Sun trying to poke through... Thinking we are near center
  7. It is hard to tell from the cone, but it looks like this is moving considerably further west than previously indicated? It looks like the center is going to move up 202.
  8. Just pushed past 5" on the gauge.
  9. Has taken a markedly more intense turn over the last 30 minutes. Power started flickering a few minutes ago.
  10. Ambient just went over 4" since last night but I would guess it's a little under that.
  11. Yeah this definitely seems to be moving faster than initially thought. Will help to keep rain totals from getting too crazy.
  12. We have upgraded to a HIGH risk from roughly the DC to Baltimore corridor into portions of eastern PA. Potentially life threatening flash flooding is possible across this corridor this morning into the afternoon hours. Despite the quick forward speed of Isaias the interaction with the approaching trough and upper jet streak will allow for significant rainfall to occur in a relatively short time period. The last several runs of both the HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 are indicating a swath of 3-6" of rain, with localized 8" totals stretching from near DC to Baltimore and then up into portions of eastern PA. Both of these models seem to have a pretty good handle on the current structure of the rain bands when comparing the forecast reflectivity to the observed radar data. Both of these models also indicate hourly rainfall magnitudes getting into the 1-2" (locally 3") range for a few hours...so this will not be a drawn out 3-6", but rather a quick punch of heavy rainfall. Given the limited instability would typically question if rates would get this high. But in this case the synoptic interaction of the system with the upper jet is intense enough that we very well may be able to realize these higher rates, even without a truly unstable environment. Given this, and the fact that it is hard to ignore the impressive signal seen on the last several HRRRv3 and HRRRv4 runs...think the upgrade to the High risk is warranted. There is some east/west spread in exactly where this heaviest rainfall axis will end up...but confidence is pretty good that it will occur somewhere withIN the relatively narrow High risk that we have issued.
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