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JSchwake28

Meteorologist
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About JSchwake28

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  • Location:
    Home: Clifton Heights, PA Work: King of Prussia, PA

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  1. JSchwake28

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    Actually appears to be mainly rain with some sleet mixing in. As is typically the case, WAA seems to have been underdone on the models. I think the phrase the PSU professors used to teach us is "WAA waits for no one".
  2. JSchwake28

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    Sleet has begun to mix in in Clifton Heights, just as CC depicts. Mix line seems to be starting to stall. Will heavier rates over the next couple of hours push it back south some? I'm thinking probably some but TBD. Will probably be a back and forth battleground across southern chesco through delco and into northern phila.
  3. JSchwake28

    March 3rd-4th SWFE. Stay low and go

    What sort of QPF Tom? Anecdotally I feel like the EPS/Euro combo has done pretty well this winter at QPF, nassomuch with ptype. I'd imagine a max strip in the 0.6" - 0.75" range based on the other models and their typical biases?
  4. JSchwake28

    March 3rd-4th SWFE. Stay low and go

    I think so. Surface temps even on the colder models still remain above freezing for the immediate Philly area. Would take some pretty good rates to overcome melting.
  5. Pretty far out but HRRR has trended colder the last several runs as well. Has snow east of the Delaware
  6. JSchwake28

    March 1st-2nd a fluff delight to mud season again

    3.6" in Clifton Heights, Delaware County. Still some flakes falling but won't have a chance to get a final measure in, wouldn't expect more than 3.75 final. Looks like some good dendrites fell, probably decent ratios.
  7. JSchwake28

    2/20-2/21 Obs , The Deja Vu Event

    Can really see that dry punch working in here. I'd guess that within that, even though in some places all layers are still below freezing, little to no snow will be able to be produced.
  8. JSchwake28

    2/20-2/21 Obs , The Deja Vu Event

    Looking at HRRR soundings, it actually looks like we lose saturation in the snow growth region before (2 hours or so) any layer actually reaches the freezing mark, so right about now. I'm a little rusty but I believe you need saturation at a very minimum of -4C to produce snow. Without that you're just left with some freezing drizzle/snizzle. We may already be moving into that stage now.
  9. JSchwake28

    2/20-2/21 Obs , The Deja Vu Event

    3" even here in Drexel Hill as what looks to be the last of the accumulating snow winds down. Could squeak out another .25 or so before the changeover?
  10. I interned with Glenn several years ago and I will say he is very knowledgeable and definitely doesn’t hug any one specific model (though he does respect the ECMWF as he should). He knows our area’s microclimate/nuances very well and isn’t afraid to go out on a limb against the models based upon what he believes is most likely to actually occur. He’s one of the best I’ve seen to use guidance as exactly that, rather than just blend models or choose one. As for what model he showed on the broadcast is anyone’s guess. I didn’t see the broadcast but sounds like he’s leaning pretty cold. My two cents - when there’s a high up north that’s not retreating (even though it isn’t in the absolutely ideal location) the models do seem to underdo the CAD’s staying power. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the colder solutions, at least at the surface, win out.
  11. Back to mod snow with a little sleet mixing in. Judging by CC looks like a big ol' mixed bag for the next couple of hours before warming above freezing this evening.
  12. Changeover beginning in D-hill, some sleet and parachutes now falling. Just measured 3.25". Imagine it will only compact from here on out. Quite the surprise - hopefully a sign of things to come this season!
  13. JSchwake28

    That 30s club

    39.2 this morning - I'm in.
  14. JSchwake28

    Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Pretty interesting writeup - not all that different than some areas during last week's deluge. http://www.delawarecountyhistory.com/documents/Reportofthe1843Flood.pdf
  15. JSchwake28

    Winter Banter Thread

    Wunderground has been having a ton of issues lately. My station has been showing up as either offline or with some crazy temps sporadically for the past couple of weeks, and almost continuously since the weekend. I did some googling around and it turns out this is a pretty widespread problem on their side. Hoping it's resolved soon
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