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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. Sorry I haven’t been posting much. Busy week. We’re definitely seeing an ice storm signal, and what looks to be fairly robust. Large amount of southerly flow on top of a CAD situation. And without a deeper SLP initially for our latitude to draw back old air towards coast, could be a larger area of Zr than we would normally see. It’s tough to say where, but I would venture to say reading- northern Lehigh valley would be in the game. Winds looks pretty gusty too, especially on the back end with that CAA. Any ice that does accumulate ; 1) stays frozen 2) becomes a big issue if we start seeing 25-35mph gets. Even with .25” zr, as well as whatever snow is possible. Tough forecast overall. Will continue to monitor. Can still see prolonged sleet in the picture too. Just think we should be more aware for that part of this system, than just snow totals.
  2. Btw, next window is 23-25th. Euro has a cutter, but believe the 0z eps had la few southern members.
  3. Little disturbance over top of the ridge out west kind of pushes the TPV, instead of of dropping down earlier.
  4. It’s no NAM Run, but fairly large changes here (for the better). More digging earlier on=stronger, slower southern stream. More TPV influence on Thursday night, and less on the backside entering the trough with the S/W. Interesting trend. Can see the GFS shift south with the SLP
  5. Jokes on you, this is my forecast for Vegas 😉
  6. Snow/31 Saturday afternoon, 1-2” maybe 7pm Saturday-7am Sunday, temps rise to 55° 1-1.5” rain 7am Sunday- 1pm Sunday- temps drop to 30, leftover rain /snow showers. 1pm Sunday- 7pm Sunday temps drop to 18°, 7pm Sunday- 7am Monday- temps drop to single digit overnight. Philly on the GFS*
  7. A lot more infleunce from the PV this run. Trough going nuetral tilt a lot earlier.
  8. height of storm; and then as front pushes through, wave develops along it. Check out the depth of the DGZ😂
  9. Not for the coastal plain this run. Goes thump to rain : might need the back end to produce. That’s always asking a lot.
  10. Mehh...Def further north with SLP, even with flatter flow.
  11. Seeing the wrong trends last night/today so far. This is entirely plausible. Pv shifting west over Canada will encourage shortwave to come north and cut.
  12. Agreed. He’s really added some good disco all around the forum lately.
  13. Snow totals are cool.. but man, could you imagine if that ice storm verified? It would be a National disaster (probably overdone, but would think ice is a concern in this type of set up)
  14. 12z gfs: vs 0z gfs for 0z Sunday : euro with a better set up. Like Tom noted above, wave spacing is important. Want the pv pushed down and ahead of the wave : 1) reinforce cold air, 2) act as a pseudo 50/50. The euro does this. Could it be the “holding back energy “ in the SW bias? Possibly. But the gfs can also be fast with things. And the GFS did trend better looking, slower. Plenty of time to see how this plays out.
  15. Should allow for a more stable PNA pattern. That helps the PV. Just 1 piece to the puzzle. Still enough energy in the pac to eject disturbances underneath the PV. That’s a good way to get snow chances. Btw, sneaky little wave on Friday AM. :
  16. irishbri74

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    I was really looking forward to banning Tombo😂😂. Maybe next time. Nice little event here! Good way to kick start what’s ahead! Eyeballing roughly 2” here from my bedroom window. Too comfortable to go out and measure 😂
  17. Keep an eye on the NAO region. As has been the case, models playing catch up with building heights into that region as we get closer. 12z euro vs 0z GFS last night showed this : 0z: 12z Keep an eye on that area. This allows a piece of the TPV to shift south towards a 50/50 position. Then we have to slow down the shortwave like the euro showed. That allows the front to move through before the wave gets there. The gfs is a little faster overall (shocker) with the flow. Not as impressive with the height responses in the NAO region. But it did make some changes between 6z and 0z: Notice how the Pv gets squashed and elongated into se Canada ? ThAts what you want. the better looking pac also helps slow down our shortwave , which allows the Atlantic side of things to set up. That’s what we want ideally. Even the EURO @12z had a closed ULL system in the goa. By 0z, that was gone. Could if be the euro bias at play here with holding things back in the SW? Could be. But the better looking PAC kind of argues against it.
  18. Big shifts inside 8 dAys on the euro. Better ridging into Greenland, pv responds favorably, send a lobe out to the 50/50. Pac looks better, better looking shortwave. Solid run, disregard the specifics!
  19. irishbri74

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    Can see those highs returns not advancing further north than pa/MD border
  20. Pretty insane for a GEFS MEAN.......