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irishbri74

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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. Current state of the strat PV @30mb & 10mb: Colder/stronger than average soo far. As has been discussed, it's still decoupled from the tropopause. As you can see, late dec, Jan is peak for the vortex. If the PV does couple with the tropopause PV, we'll start seeing a more +AO regime, and given its strength, would be harder to get SSW events earlier in winter. Just something to keep an eye on.
  2. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Brush fire nearby?
  3. Is this all out by 12z?? I checked forecast the other day, and it looked like chance of sprinkles, and then a nice day.
  4. Fall Banter Thread

    Fall run for striped bass just getting started. Fished seaside heights/Ortley beach the other day. Plenty of adult bunker around, just no fish close to shore. The whale(s) put on quite a show close to the beach.
  5. Ehhh,.. I don't think that's as promising as it looks. Retreating PV into Siberia and PAC jet on roids blasting into mainland Canada. Call me skeptic I guess.
  6. Potential winter storm threats

    Probably gotta wait till afterwards , that weekend now. Too much volatility in the med range right now.
  7. From twitter : That's an UUUUUGLY look. Canada starts to torch, polar air gets pushed back out. Pray it's wrong.
  8. Neither model backing down. GFS wants to keep the pna positive, while euro/EPS crashes the coast and boots the ridge east flooding us with PAC air.
  9. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Pretty sure it is? Border goes past St. David's rd?
  10. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    This is awesome news! First the BMW championship next year, and then this: #Delco on the map!
  11. Potential winter storm threats

    EPS vs GEFS around this time frame:
  12. Potential winter storm threats

    Gefs showing the tombo turkey mauler potential:
  13. 11/13 wintry mix obs.

    39 and rain... joyous
  14. Fall Banter Thread

    Well, looks like this recent cold blast finally got the fish moving out of raritan bay and down the NNJ coast. Fall run is on! Delayed by about 1-2 weeks this year due to warmer ocean waters/air temps. I'll be hitting the surf quite a but the next few weeks, hoping to land my 50lb'er!! Lol Currently in Asbury Park.....
  15. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    No chance seeing the Anteres rocket launch this am @719
  16. Short duaration winter blast on its way. Pretty impressive 850's for this time of year. CWA should see everyone with their freeze (finally)
  17. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    I got one too! 24" clearance , 7hp, push start. Can't wait. Everyone asked "well you live in an apt, why do you need one?!" I simply replied "digging out my cars"!!
  18. Seems like models were a tad quick with the front?
  19. That's one hell of a robust signal for a -NAO. Like a month to early to get too excited though for potential.
  20. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Nice catch! Fishing the back bays?.
  21. Kind of deceiving on that map.(I know it's a height change map, but still).. Still a robust blocking look on the EPS day 10-15 in the NAO region. If if I had one caveat about this pattern going forward, and I saw you touched in it earlier, would be the GOA/Alaskan Vortex. Granted, we're still only in November, but if that sets up semi-permanently there come December, we wouldn't like that.
  22. Friday/sat am cold blast

    Agreed Tony. Thought maybe something in the middle. But GFS getting schooled by euro handling the synoptic set up in med range.
  23. Fwiw, sun still fairly quiet. Not sure if there's a direct correlation, but thought I read somewhere low solar activity increases your chance for high latitude blocks. Gonna dig into that today. Slow start with the amazing eagles game yesterday!!
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