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irishbri74

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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Haven’t really looked at the threat for beginning of Marc today, , but looks like 18z took a step in the right direction. Some of the gefs ind looked ok. I’ll be back to discuss the 0z run.
  2. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    I just meant synoptically. It’s so different a loft. If it goes to that bowlin ball look, it’ll be a gfs type solution.
  3. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Gotta imagine euro hops into the GFS camp this run. Most, if not all gefs, Mirrow the primary low, transfer at our latitude. Very few members with snowfall is it retrogrades/slides south &East
  4. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Verbatim, the euro is a heavy rain to a paste bomb to fluff . @162, 850’s are +6, (PHL)then the phase happens, with the low occluding and dynamics are firing off. 168, CCB is cranking, 850’s have cooled off to 0/1 between PA/NJ border. 172, 850’s down to -5/-6 and things are ripping!!! Pretty extreme solution, and most eps members don’t show much more than a few inches.
  5. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    I mean, look at these synoptic differences between our 2 big globals for 144 hours out: 0z gfs; 0z euro: gfs is one giant bowling ball, with faster ejecting southern energy phasing earlier. The euro, which is a better look for us, is slower to eject (slower than its 12z run even) the short waves, they remain separate until the right spot for deepening. Who knows if the gfs progressive bias is at play here, or the euro’s supposed keeping energy back in the SWUS is too? @Rainshadow may be able to ask that one. And Oo yea, euro snow map so people actually read the above:
  6. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Yea, I just quick glanced at the GFS @h5. Def a better look on the euro solution. Misses out on something bigger here, and it Goes to an inverted trough type look. Check out how the 850’s crash here though.
  7. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Maybe we shifting to gfs’esque solution this run, albeit a bit later.
  8. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Gfs vs euro for 0z Friday:
  9. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Def would like to see that primary not as north, or the secondary take over a little faster (a la CMC solution). Have a feeling that the guidance may start adjusting to the block over Greenland. Have a hard time believing the primary gets that far north with a 570dm ridge moving towards the Davis straights. The key though, could be how the height field configured under that block: 0z euro 0z cmc 6z gfs (valid 18z Thursday, same as above) notice how the CMC has a better looking 50/50. The Gfs is all about hooking up the se ridge towards the block, but not on the backside. The euro is somewhat in between, with ridging in front of and behind. (Look over Minn, U.P. MICH). These are the details that we need to look for and discuss this far out, not surface temps, qpf amounts.
  10. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Agreed on the couple of shots. The jet retraction inducing the PNA with “weakening” of the block could be our big shot chance. EPS have quite the signal around the 300 hour mark. Dont think the block is gonna collapse quickly though. We probably won’t see a 570+Dm ridge over Greenland , but probably above normal heights in that region. I’d be weary of the effects lingering through the first 2/3rds of March at the very least. Back door season could be a real pain.
  11. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    EPS for MPO vs Philly. The interior signal is strong for that first event. Not ruling anything out at this point. Some pretty absurd solutions creeping in run by run.
  12. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Some decent hits on the eps for that 2-4th time frame. The signal im seeing now is some sort of bowling ball/Miller B set up during this time frame. Then an as we see the ridge pop out west later on, that would be our Miller A look. Long ways away... let’s just get through this weekend.
  13. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    It’s 10 days away...
  14. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Some clustering on the GEFS as well: I do believe we’ll have a few opportunities to cash in, not just a 1-2 day window. As as far as being too warm at this point, it’s kind of hindsight. If* something does manage to initiate, storm track, intensity would dictate p-types. The important thing to remember here is that the source region is plenty cold to supply us with what we need. This isn’t a stagnant air mass in Canada with a block developing.
  15. Anyone see Superman flying around the globe to reverse the rotation?!?! damn good signal for something big. Big question remains to be seen if we cash in locally...
  16. Disregard the minute details here and enjoy the potential
  17. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Meanwhile, in Kansas...thunder snow/sleet/ice/ graupel
  18. I think you may be weighing the PNA region and the negative look of it too much. Superstorm93 posted over @33nrain the height field for the 1962 storm: Now compare to this look: I am not saying we see this end result, but wanted to emphasize that we can be cold enough with the pac looking meh. With the pac jet retraction in motion during this time frame, we’ll see a transisnt ridge out west. Our source region in Canada will have plenty of cold air to tap.
  19. February 17th-18th (Tom)Thumping (Thumper) Snow Obs

    Anyone know how much Atlantic City and Glassboro areas received?
  20. If you’re not excited for snow prospects based off this look....
  21. February 17th-18th (Tom)Thumping (Thumper) Snow Obs

    I just measured, and this is the total on non-paved surfaces. Granted, about 2-3 hours after it stopped. I’ll call it 1.5”
  22. February 17th-18th (Tom)Thumping (Thumper) Snow Obs

    I knew it would be shot duration, just not 2-3 hours of .25” snows here in Delco. Height was 7-9 pm, maybe 1” here on unpaved Surfaces here
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