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Everything posted by irishbri74

  1. Sooo close for Philly 95 corridor here...could go snow or sleet here. May come down to how the initial 700 banding sets up. Subsidence areas would warm and ping sleet until the changeover.
  2. Changes @H5 on the NAM tonight. Let’s see if global follow suit. Such a shame this storm isn’t 75 miles more S&E...
  3. Not too shabby. Don’t forget to stress the ice element in this set up if you go public, especially for N&W burbs.
  4. 72 is dry slot over EPA. This would slow a decent amount of warming
  5. Euro looks sleety @54, but precip is a touch drier throughout region. (Could be a timing issue as well)
  6. Wicked CCB band on the GFS on the backside. Coastal plain is tainted from earlier on, but man, it’s close on this run. I could see elevated areas dynamically cooling enough under the heaviest precip to get snow. Ps, @Rainshadow gfs doing that thing mixing out dews in the lowest few thousand feet.
  7. 84 hours on the GFS is really interesting : waiting for sounding ding to come out to see what the band is gonna do in eastern PA
  8. That makes sense. Let’s see if they change tune Thursday night.
  9. Interestingly enough, the Weeklies don’t show this result. Keeps the Scandinavian ridge at exactly that...
  10. Is it even operational Andy? If not, probably just gonna kick all posts about it to banter.
  11. irishbri74

    76ers star hunting comes true, but at what cost?

    I would like to redact my previous stance on Fultz.... what in in the world is this?!
  12. Btw, that FV3 GFS seems awful... like CRAS bad... and I’ve never seen them in the same room 😂😂
  13. 18z GFS is a little colder. More confluence at the onset compressing the flow a bit. Ps, too early for model run watching 😂😂
  14. It’s definitely a pretty questionable thermal profile, especially for 95 corridor. Think maybe initial thump wet bulbs us into some snow/sleet? You can see that signature along the Mason-Dixon Line where temps drop within the band. Dew’s also support this idea. Granted, it’s all based on the euro thermals. And it’s probably gonna change between now and then. Always good to shake off some rust and dive into breaking down the models.
  15. irishbri74

    76ers star hunting comes true, but at what cost?

    Too early to say Fultz is a bust. Seeing some promise from him lately. I’d give it till end of this year at least. Remember, he’s only 20. Still, it’s a shame to see him not only develop slowly, but regress how he did last year. Thank god Embiid is a superstar. Still need Ben to develop his jumper to get to that next level. I liked the Butler deal. Obviously, roco and Saric, for being good B type players, weren’t gonna get us over the top. Remains to be seen how JB develops chemistry with Embiid and Ben. If it goes well, it can really go well. If it’s bad, it’s gonna be bad.
  16. To start at onset. Def a warm push between 850-700mb after this.coastal low pops a bit inland, so mid level track is primed for a warm push in coastal plains and eastern pa this run.
  17. As you guys have pointed out, some moderation/ above average stuff should be expected 2nd half of November, and probably into December. (Im ok with that, will give me some nice fishing days!) I am curious to see the Scandinavian ridging signal soo strong on the EPS. If that keeps up, at some point in December, it could retrograde into the NAO region. Just some food for thought.
  18. One thing I’m seeing going forward after the cold shot, is the pv reconsolidating. Pac side of things looking ok. The Atlantic doesn’t look favorable at all with a ++NAO showing up. (Last 4 months It’s been positive, so why expect change, AMIRITE?!?!)
  19. irishbri74

    Meteorological Fall Banter Thread

    Happy Birthday @Rainshadow !!! Hope it’s a great one!
  20. I don’t think anyone mentioned PV split?? There’s model data and support for a wave 2 type warming on the strat that could yied a wind reversal in the somewhere. That looks to yield some sort of scandnavian ridge / which could retro into a -NAO look. It’s all preliminary of course , and I’d be wary of it actually happening. Models, especially GFS, tend to get happy feet with this kind of stuff. That being said, if something were to occur like what we’re seeing, it’s no guarantee for wintry weather come end November/December. The PV will probably recover at some point. Never a bad thing to have a weaker PV though IMHO.
  21. irishbri74

    Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Played there about 2 weeks ago. Chewed me up. Definitely a big boy course with all the elevation and sloped greens. Course was a little beat up, but most are after this stretch of weather. Ended up playing @ Kennet Square CC last Monday for That course was in great shape. Shot my best round of year there! (37/38-75)
  22. irishbri74

    Weekend (October 26th-27th) Coastal Storm Obs

    LLJ cranking this am.