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irishbri74 last won the day on October 10

irishbri74 had the most liked content!

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About irishbri74

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    Skywarn #NKM-033

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    Drexel Hill

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  1. irishbri74

    That 30s club

    Had patchy frost in Drexel Hill this am.
  2. Man, what a pattern. Just a standing wave over west coast ridging, eastern trough. Can see see some hints of some blocking up by Greenland. Not sure if it’s just an extension of the Atlantic ridge though. Curious to see how it plays out.
  3. Nice catches!!! Speaking of sunmer..
  4. 6z intensity models not too bullish on further strengthening, maybe low end cat 3 as a small probability. But hey, we’ve seen crazier things. Key is gonna be to see if the eye can warm and clear out. Until then, I’d expect minimal fluctuations in strength.
  5. Great analysis. He kind of flatlined a bit overnight as far as strengthening. (Good thing vs waking up to a higher end cat 3). Still, about 36 hours left over the open Gulf. Never a good thing. Let’s see where he goes from here:
  6. Also, while SST are high down in the GOM, OHC dodsnt guarantee rapid strengthening.
  7. Gfs vs euro as far as remnants go. As Tony said, euro makes the harder right and keeps us dry, whereas the gfs brings it overhead. Good news is that whatever happens, even if it does pass overhead, it’s moving quickly. That should limit flooding potential.
  8. Thank god it’s October and not August/July...!
  9. I think the real brunt of this ridge next week is gonna be the overnight lows. Should really skew the + departures. Daytime highs look marginal, and probably won’t threaten daily max temps I’m assuming ?(if someone can back me up on that?) oo yea, don’t forget about the high dew points returning!
  10. MJO driving the warmth for now, but if it can hang around 8/1/2 for a few months, we’d be in business
  11. Maybe this belongs in the winter thread, but I’ll just skip this in here. If we were to hold the pac forcing in place in phases 8-1-2 for DJF, well.... Purely speculation at this point though.
  12. This pattern correlates well to the phase 8-1 ASO MJO
  13. Well let’s just get this pattern out of here by December.... pretty soon, Tony will be talking about his October -NAO Correlation for the rest of winter😐
  14. a lot of volatility in the OP runs. Last 3 runs of the gfs : darn wavelength changes !!