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Rockchops

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Rockchops last won the day on June 18 2019

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About Rockchops

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    Media, PA

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  1. I am guessing nobody here near Emmaus to validate any storm damage? Havent heard anything but that looked nasty on radar....just curious.
  2. SPC day 2 convective outlook puts us at a slight risk tomorrow SPC AC 210600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2020 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly damaging winds may occur Wednesday across parts of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and vicinity. Other isolated severe storms appear possible across parts of the central Plains. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... A convectively augmented shortwave trough should move northeastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. At least isolated storms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the OH Valley in association with this shortwave trough. Current expectations are for rather robust diurnal heating to occur along/east of the Appalachians in the Mid-Atlantic. Low-level moisture should also increase across this region through the day. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability should develop by peak afternoon heating from central PA/northern VA eastward to the Atlantic Coast. Although mid-level flow should not be overly strong, around 20-35 kt at 500 mb will probably be enough to foster some storm organization. Bowing line segments and clusters should be the dominant storm mode given marginal deep-layer shear, although a supercell or two cannot be ruled out along a northward-advancing warm front in southern NY/northern PA vicinity, where effective bulk shear will be slightly stronger. With steepened low-level lapse rates, storms that move east-southeastward across the warm sector may produce strong to locally damaging downdraft winds. There is enough signal in both convection-allowing and global guidance of a more favorable corridor for scattered, linear convection to include 15% wind probabilities across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Farther southwest, mid-level flow and associated shear should be even weaker, but loosely organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage may still occur through Wednesday evening. ...Central Plains... A small cluster of storms may be present Wednesday morning along/near the NE/KS border, perhaps posing an isolated hail/wind threat before weakening. Even though mid-level heights are forecast to rise over the central Plains through the day, additional convective development appears possible along a trailing outflow boundary. Low-level flow will remain modest until Wednesday evening, when a southerly low-level jet should strengthen. There is enough signal in guidance for isolated storm development to include 5% probabilities for both large hail and severe wind gusts, given the forecast combination of strong instability with marginal shear. ..Gleason.. 07/21/2020
  3. Absolutely dumping here in upper providence -- just saw a call come through for a water rescue in our neighborhood. My sump pump is a constant "on" right now...
  4. Also surprised - we're likely to see cape over 5k today. If any shear makes it in, we're going to blow up. I would imagine that there would be quite a bit of large hail potential and the storms will hardly be moving given the sounding posted above.
  5. SPC has us juuuuust on the edge of marginal today. Some of you folks out west might get some action again, we'll need the trough to push through before the evening cooling to see any action in the city. ...Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough will slowly move east across the Great Lakes. Moderate mid-level southwesterlies attendant to the trough will largely remain confined from the Upper OH Valley and central Appalachians westward through this afternoon. Remnants of ongoing convection near a cold front across western OH to the IN/KY border should intensify towards early afternoon as modest boundary-layer heating occurs ahead of this boundary. Additional storms should also develop by late afternoon along a lee trough from south-central PA through western/central VA. Poor mid-level lapse rates as sampled by area 12Z soundings should support only modest MLCAPE by June standards with values from 750-1500 J/kg, about a half to two-thirds of yesterday. Given this along with modest deep-layer shear east of the Appalachians, substantial storm-scale organization may prove difficult. As such, locally damaging winds from microbursts appear to be the most likely hazard. ..Grams/Kerr.. 06/23/2020
  6. I grabbed these screenshots yesterday butbaas unable to post as thr entire area mobile data seemed to be down. I assume this was the tor warn cell - I would be surprised if it didnt ge t a warning from that hook.
  7. Ours are not only above ground but behind the houses where all the trees are. Back in the 30s I guess they didnt think about that much. Peco reporting 326k without power now. In our area crews havent even been dispatched to assess so I think it will be a while.
  8. Power out here in Media, PECO map showinf 250k and counting for affected customers.
  9. Wow...did not expect to see this so early. Looks like a beeline for Delco as someone else mentioned -- right now looking up we've got some high clouds but it's clearing so I imagine by the time the line reaches here we're going to have some solid CAPE.
  10. I don't have a anemometer but I believe these are the highest gusts we've seen this year in delco -- outages all over the place.
  11. Sun's back out in Delco...that was fast
  12. Not going to be enough heating I'm afraid, but might spin up something. We have the sun poking through but still plenty of thin clouds hanging around. It is clearing pretty quickly, so NJ might see some fireworks.
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