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Rockchops

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Rockchops last won the day on June 18

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    Media, PA

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  1. I've been throwing everything in the boring Obs thread. The amount of mid level shear and CAPE already in the atmosphere is impressive for 12pm here -- If we get some more clearing and heating, it'll blow up.
  2. Plenty of shear up there, and 1500+ j/kg CAPE levels at 12pm. Depending on how much heating we get, this could get pretty nasty later... Edit: they just issued this... Mesoscale Discussion 1115 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 Areas affected...southeast PA and central and southern New Jersey...southward across northern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181623Z - 181800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to gradually increase this afternoon, with attendant/increasing risk for locally damaging winds, and possibly some hail. WW may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis shows ongoing airmass destabilization across the Mid Atlantic region, as gradual heating of a moist boundary layer (low 70s dewpoints) through broken cloud cover, has resulted in 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE as of 16Z. Though cumulus remains suppressed south of the Mason/Dixon line at this time, visible imagery shows deepening convection over southeast PA, just upstream of the axis of greatest instability. Area VWPs indicate moderate (35 to 45 kt) mid-level westerly flow, which will likely provide ample shear for organized convection. As such, risk for locally damaging winds should gradually increase this afternoon, along with potential for hail with the strongest cells. Additionally, backed low-level flow is indicated across parts of eastern PA and into NJ north of a northwest-to-southeast surface boundary lying across southeast PA/southern NJ per recent surface analysis. Given this local enhancement to the low-level shear profile, a tornado is also not out of the question with any isolated/rotating storm which may evolve. ..Goss/Guyer.. 06/18/2019
  3. Looks like they expanded the slight risk a bit, mostly eastward. Philly is smack in the middle -- pretty beefy TOR circle as well here.
  4. Very heavy rain here - expecting some localized flooding at the usual spots.
  5. Congrats? The one day I try and detail my car...
  6. I havent looked at the dynamics or anything for today, but its nice to see us smack in the middle of the slight zone for once.
  7. Tornado vortex signature on the cell north of Glassboro, at least according to radarscope
  8. If those tracks hold, we're gonna get clobbered in Media. Already have thunder and lightning incoming.
  9. Plenty of shear, CAPE rising...once that starts shifting eastward, looking good for some fireworks. Dewpoint currently at 69*F in Philly too
  10. In the midst of a good ol summer soaker in delco. Just wish it hadnt hit while I still have burgers and corn on the grill. Sun and rain now, anticipate a bajillion FB/IG rainbow pics in about 10 mins.
  11. this is an active one...thats a huge gradient, almost cyclonic from the time lapse. Amazing light show in delco now.
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