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gravitywave98

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  1. gravitywave98

    Smarch 3rd-4th Obs

    SN/IP mix in East Mount Airy (Northwest Philadelphia). Maybe 1" on the grass?
  2. Not too much else to talk about so might as well have a thread for this ... CTP has posted a High Wind Watch. Here is relevant text from latest Mt. Holly AFD: Behind the front, the main issue becomes the wind. Continued deep low pressure over southeast Canada with result in a strong pressure gradient and gusty WNW winds. Winds a few thousand feet aloft are forecast to reach 50-60kt, but downward mixing of momentum will be limited as the surface cools after sunset. A wind advisory could eventually be needed late Sunday into SUnday night. A post-frontal trof is forecat to move through around 12Z Monday with an apparent secondary surge of winds. Also daytime heating will promote mixing and enhanced downward mom xfer. Thus the strongest winds are expected Monday morning, when gusts could reach 50kt requiring a high wind warning.
  3. General model trend seems to be warmer, but I was wondering if anyone had comments on this latest AFD from Mt. Holly and how it compares to the modelling: 915 AM Update...Update regarding winter storm...we added Upper Bucks and Western Montgomery Counties to the Winter Storm Watch based on potential snow and ice impacts...especially given overall colder trend we've seen in the models. Also regarding this trend, I have increasing concerns that colder temperatures and icing could be more of an issue tomorrow night than we've been thinking even near the I-95 corridor. This is based on forecast position of surface warm front quite far to the south with the cold airmass we'll have in place ahead of the system and strong warm nose coming in aloft.
  4. 19z and 20z HRRR fizzle out the rain currently in Delaware/Chester County and keep heavier precip east of the City this evening.
  5. 18z HRRR showing a bullseye right over Philadelphia this evening for several inches of rain in a few hours. Looks like a pretty strong batch of rain going on in Delaware right now - not clear if that is the batch to affect Philadelphia later on or if a new batch forms.
  6. gravitywave98

    It's Masters Week!

    Thanks for tallying everything Tony! This was a fun contest and definitely a fun tournament to watch. Derek
  7. gravitywave98

    It's Masters Week!

    Rory McIlroy Patrick Reed Justin Rose Henrik Stenson I think Rory is due ...
  8. Moderate snow in the last 15 minutes in Northern Liberties, just northeast of Center City Philadelphia. Coating on roadways just starting.
  9. gravitywave98

    March Lion Obs (Wind, Rain, Snow, Blowing Trash)

    Wind-driven snow here in Northern Liberties, Philadelphia, 19123. Not accumulating anywhere yet down here. Home web camera in NW Philadelphia shows accumulation beginning on grass and cars but not paved surfaces.
  10. gravitywave98

    12/30 Fluff obs

    3.0 inches in East Germantown, Philadelphia, 19138. Snow ended around noon.
  11. Great to meet everyone today! Thanks to Tony for organizing. I had a fun time even if I didnt come close to 5 under. I promise to post more in the next year, especially fantasy snowstorms on the 384 hour panel of the GFS. Derek
  12. gravitywave98

    3/13/17 - 3/15/17 OBS : Rocky III The Final Knock Out Punch?

    Mostly sleet with a little ZR mixed in in Northern Liberties, Philadelphia. Was mostly ZR a few hours ago.
  13. gravitywave98

    3/1/17 Strong To Severe Thunderstorm Observations

    MCD just issued - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2017/md0243.html Watch probability is 80% Do we get a red box or a blue box? SUMMARY...A damaging wind and isolated tornado threat will increase with a line of storms approaching from the west. Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...An ongoing line of showers and thunderstorms across central/western VA is quickly advancing eastward. As it does so, this line should strengthen as it encounters an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Diurnal heating has allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to upper 70s as of 1745Z, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The instability should build northward with time across NJ. 15Z sounding from GSO and 16Z sounding from RNK both reveal steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 degrees C/km that will support weak to moderate instability across this area through the afternoon. Widespread damaging winds appear likely as the convective line restrengthens. In addition, RAP forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs across the eastern VA into Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central NJ, as winds veer from generally southerly to southwesterly with height while also strengthening. This should support an isolated tornado threat with embedded circulations within the line.
  14. gravitywave98

    PTC/AccuWeather Fiasco (or, the derp of PA government w/ weather)

    After Action Report by the PTC has been posted: https://www.paturnpike.com/pdfs/about/PUBLIC_AAR_Report_Bedford_to_Somerset_Event_05APR2016.pdf
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