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  1. Tornado Watch for the whole area until 8 pm Today's probabilities vs. (yesterday's): Tornadoes: 40% / (50%) EF2+ Tornadoes: 20% / (20%) Severe Wind: 70% / (60%) 65 kt+ Wind: 20% / (20%) Severe Hail: 70% / (60%) 2"+ Hail: 30% / (30%) So, looks like slightly lower chance of tornadoes but higher chance of severe wind compared with yesterday. Also have Flash Flood Watch for today.
  2. 95% chance of a watch by 1 pm per SPC - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html Long, nearly straight hodographs through mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move east-southeastward across PA into NJ.
  3. Looks like we are in a Slight Risk for Thursday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates along with diabatic warming contributing to moderate instability during the day. Current indications are that storms will most likely develop over the Great Lakes along southeast-advancing cold front and spread southeast into the OH Valley and Northeast States by late afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail and damaging wind as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  4. SN/IP mix in East Mount Airy (Northwest Philadelphia). Maybe 1" on the grass?
  5. Not too much else to talk about so might as well have a thread for this ... CTP has posted a High Wind Watch. Here is relevant text from latest Mt. Holly AFD: Behind the front, the main issue becomes the wind. Continued deep low pressure over southeast Canada with result in a strong pressure gradient and gusty WNW winds. Winds a few thousand feet aloft are forecast to reach 50-60kt, but downward mixing of momentum will be limited as the surface cools after sunset. A wind advisory could eventually be needed late Sunday into SUnday night. A post-frontal trof is forecat to move through around 12Z Monday with an apparent secondary surge of winds. Also daytime heating will promote mixing and enhanced downward mom xfer. Thus the strongest winds are expected Monday morning, when gusts could reach 50kt requiring a high wind warning.
  6. General model trend seems to be warmer, but I was wondering if anyone had comments on this latest AFD from Mt. Holly and how it compares to the modelling: 915 AM Update...Update regarding winter storm...we added Upper Bucks and Western Montgomery Counties to the Winter Storm Watch based on potential snow and ice impacts...especially given overall colder trend we've seen in the models. Also regarding this trend, I have increasing concerns that colder temperatures and icing could be more of an issue tomorrow night than we've been thinking even near the I-95 corridor. This is based on forecast position of surface warm front quite far to the south with the cold airmass we'll have in place ahead of the system and strong warm nose coming in aloft.
  7. 19z and 20z HRRR fizzle out the rain currently in Delaware/Chester County and keep heavier precip east of the City this evening.
  8. 18z HRRR showing a bullseye right over Philadelphia this evening for several inches of rain in a few hours. Looks like a pretty strong batch of rain going on in Delaware right now - not clear if that is the batch to affect Philadelphia later on or if a new batch forms.
  9. Thanks for tallying everything Tony! This was a fun contest and definitely a fun tournament to watch. Derek
  10. Rory McIlroy Patrick Reed Justin Rose Henrik Stenson I think Rory is due ...
  11. Moderate snow in the last 15 minutes in Northern Liberties, just northeast of Center City Philadelphia. Coating on roadways just starting.
  12. Wind-driven snow here in Northern Liberties, Philadelphia, 19123. Not accumulating anywhere yet down here. Home web camera in NW Philadelphia shows accumulation beginning on grass and cars but not paved surfaces.
  13. 3.0 inches in East Germantown, Philadelphia, 19138. Snow ended around noon.
  14. Great to meet everyone today! Thanks to Tony for organizing. I had a fun time even if I didnt come close to 5 under. I promise to post more in the next year, especially fantasy snowstorms on the 384 hour panel of the GFS. Derek
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