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gravitywave98

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  1. Some good Twitter threads from Gary Szatkowski (former Meteorologist in Charge for NWS Mt. Holly) during the past few days regarding NWS coordination, decision-making leading up to the event, and impacts. I am quite familiar with this discussion but I have still learned a few good nuggets of information. See https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski if you are interested
  2. Not to get too speculative and I am certainly not a tropical expert, but I associate a turn from a NW track back to a WNW or W track (as Dorian may do as it approaches Florida) with strengthening in many Atlantic hurricanes. It seems like once they are being steered by a ridge to the north that conditions can turn conducive to strengthening, regardless of what models may think. Some examples from memory and quick research: Floyd 1999, Isabel 2003, Jeanne 2004, Katrina 2005 (before Florida), Irma 2017. These storms were generally further out in the Atlantic than Dorian will be so that may be a factor. Ike 2008 (out in the Atlantic, long before landfall in Texas) seems to be a counter example where the storm was pushed toward the WSW by a strong ridge but was somewhat disrupted by shear. Again, not a forecast and environmental conditions may preclude this type of strengthening for Dorian, but just making an observation based on some past storms.
  3. Tornado Watch for the whole area until 8 pm Today's probabilities vs. (yesterday's): Tornadoes: 40% / (50%) EF2+ Tornadoes: 20% / (20%) Severe Wind: 70% / (60%) 65 kt+ Wind: 20% / (20%) Severe Hail: 70% / (60%) 2"+ Hail: 30% / (30%) So, looks like slightly lower chance of tornadoes but higher chance of severe wind compared with yesterday. Also have Flash Flood Watch for today.
  4. 95% chance of a watch by 1 pm per SPC - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html Long, nearly straight hodographs through mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move east-southeastward across PA into NJ.
  5. Looks like we are in a Slight Risk for Thursday. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates along with diabatic warming contributing to moderate instability during the day. Current indications are that storms will most likely develop over the Great Lakes along southeast-advancing cold front and spread southeast into the OH Valley and Northeast States by late afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail and damaging wind as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  6. SN/IP mix in East Mount Airy (Northwest Philadelphia). Maybe 1" on the grass?
  7. Not too much else to talk about so might as well have a thread for this ... CTP has posted a High Wind Watch. Here is relevant text from latest Mt. Holly AFD: Behind the front, the main issue becomes the wind. Continued deep low pressure over southeast Canada with result in a strong pressure gradient and gusty WNW winds. Winds a few thousand feet aloft are forecast to reach 50-60kt, but downward mixing of momentum will be limited as the surface cools after sunset. A wind advisory could eventually be needed late Sunday into SUnday night. A post-frontal trof is forecat to move through around 12Z Monday with an apparent secondary surge of winds. Also daytime heating will promote mixing and enhanced downward mom xfer. Thus the strongest winds are expected Monday morning, when gusts could reach 50kt requiring a high wind warning.
  8. General model trend seems to be warmer, but I was wondering if anyone had comments on this latest AFD from Mt. Holly and how it compares to the modelling: 915 AM Update...Update regarding winter storm...we added Upper Bucks and Western Montgomery Counties to the Winter Storm Watch based on potential snow and ice impacts...especially given overall colder trend we've seen in the models. Also regarding this trend, I have increasing concerns that colder temperatures and icing could be more of an issue tomorrow night than we've been thinking even near the I-95 corridor. This is based on forecast position of surface warm front quite far to the south with the cold airmass we'll have in place ahead of the system and strong warm nose coming in aloft.
  9. 19z and 20z HRRR fizzle out the rain currently in Delaware/Chester County and keep heavier precip east of the City this evening.
  10. 18z HRRR showing a bullseye right over Philadelphia this evening for several inches of rain in a few hours. Looks like a pretty strong batch of rain going on in Delaware right now - not clear if that is the batch to affect Philadelphia later on or if a new batch forms.
  11. Thanks for tallying everything Tony! This was a fun contest and definitely a fun tournament to watch. Derek
  12. Rory McIlroy Patrick Reed Justin Rose Henrik Stenson I think Rory is due ...
  13. Moderate snow in the last 15 minutes in Northern Liberties, just northeast of Center City Philadelphia. Coating on roadways just starting.
  14. Wind-driven snow here in Northern Liberties, Philadelphia, 19123. Not accumulating anywhere yet down here. Home web camera in NW Philadelphia shows accumulation beginning on grass and cars but not paved surfaces.
  15. 3.0 inches in East Germantown, Philadelphia, 19138. Snow ended around noon.
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