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  1. Starting to look like only hope is round 1. CMC went south with it fwiw. Cant find Ukie. Can someone post if they have it
  2. Only reason I care about it is the thermals. Now back to this Virginia game. Down 12 to the 16 seed 7 mins left!
  3. Just for fun but at 84 hours the NAM is about to pound the region and temps look cold thru the column
  4. Lets look at the facts from the 12z runs. Based on model data alone I believe we are going to miss this thing to the South. Just how Im hedging right now. 1) GFS is N however 18z trended towards the rest when it came to round 2 2) The CMC was still a nice hit, however it all comes from round 1 and it is a very thin band of heavy precip. If it trended just a tad S it would be a miss. 3) The EURO & its ensembles went well South. Based on the 500mb map it would be very difficult to get it N. Regardless I felt a lot better about this storm 24hrs ago than I do today.
  5. Not trying to break up this great convo, but 2 other models to throw in..the 12z JMA is in the EURO camp though it is farthr N with part 1. The 18z NAM at 84 looks really juiced. Obv way out there but it can give you a good idea on what side of the fence it will start off on.
  6. You can def see that the GFS trended towards EURO with wave 2. Starting to believe wave 1 is our only hope.
  7. Either the Euro is sniffing something good or it is about to pull a major coop
  8. Anyone got CMC snoe maps? It looked like it shifted that QPF max a bit SE
  9. This is an extremely interesting event. That 2nd wave is going to play a big role with this 1
  10. Cmc looks similar to 00z run basically...im really starting to think rhis might end up being a major sleet storm
  11. The one caveat though Tom is that SV maps are very good when it comes to surface temps and snow. They just count sleet as snow too. Sleet would accumulate. In fact I could see a scenario where sleet helps accumulation since it would create a layer of ice on pavement. This event seemingly has better low level cold than the previous events. March is my fav. Month of the year. Love this stuff.
  12. That primary still gets pretty far N on the ukie fwiw.
  13. Yea I noticed that stormvista snowmaps are very strict with snow acc. because they only show accumulation if surface is below freezing, however at the same rate they completely ignore sleet parameters. Anyone have the 00z ukie @ 144hrs?
  14. No one mentioned the 00z Ukie. On the free site I use it didnt update last night, but on stormvista it has. It is south of its 12z solution, but still looks like it would have a bomb at 120 hours.