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snowlurker

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snowlurker last won the day on April 12 2019

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About snowlurker

  • Birthday June 12

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    Male
  • Location:
    Middletown, DE (New Castle County)
  • Interests
    weather, cooking, brewing, baseball

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  1. Lots of mixed signals if you ask me. Although I have never taken the time to learn more about them and what they portend, I've read a million comments over the years on American and here. And I gotta say that the mixed signals are reminiscent of the models having a very difficult time resolving a major pattern change. The question is: change to something good or something awful?
  2. FWIW, CPC D+8 composite analog dates include February 5, 1961. This is centered on January 24. (yesterday's post said D+8 but I meant to say D+11 yesterday) The AN precipitation is focused more on the southern Mid Atlantic. Temps are normal.
  3. This year I think I have a much more realistic attitude towards model output in the long and medium range. I still quibble with their sometimes ridiculousness in near-term. My sour attitude of late is not really based upon any model output. Rather, it's the crappy winter weather we've had done here for the past three years. Tracking something only to expect that it'll result in a sloppy coating has lost some of its luster. Although I sometimes post snarky comments, I really do appreciate everyone posting their thoughts/information. I'd rather have too much information than not enough, even in a crappy pattern. I'm totally fine with D5+ snow maps and take 'em for what their worth (not much).
  4. Because of the relative lack of accumulating January snow in my neck of the woods since 2007, I have come to expect nothing much in January. I know it's been said here several times, but I think it's remarkable how December has firmly become November, November become December, January become false spring, February is hit/miss, and early March is a repeat of February's hit/miss. I'd readily sacrifice a snowy March for a good stretch of 3" of snow on the ground over the month of January.
  5. Sometimes in magical moments, those juicy snowmap pan out like the 2016 blizzard. It's a ton of fun when it happens.
  6. Yeah, it's the same ol' thing. It pops up on someone's radar pretty far out because of a juicy snowmap, bounces back and forth with downward trend to something pathetic, stabilizes, and then Lucy swipes that football the night before. I should know better than to get invested in any of these. Okay, back to channeling my inner Heisy and lurking till the next big thing.
  7. I'd maybe cut down some of the amounts to account for sleet instead of snow. But what do I know? I'm just a heartbroken snow weenie.
  8. Blutarsky... But I'll get even when I get 100+ heat indices in summer?
  9. I can't tell you just how much I love that photo of snow drifts. Back in Michigan, we too had a blizzard and very cold weather. I remember hanging outside for hours in a sub-zero winter wonderland of snow. Yawnter Wonderland just doesn't have the same ring to it.
  10. Looking at the 18Z NAM for thermals. Around 0.2-0.3" of qpf falls in DE and SEPA by 21Z Saturday when Philly either loses or is about to lose 850s and surface. It drops another 0.1-0.3 of qpf in DE and SEPA by 0Z. So, it seems about 50% frozen/50% non-frozen overall. Just going off of precip type on Pivotal, nw of I-95 in DE/SEPA is sleet then rain while se of I-95 of DE/SEPA is rain then rain. Here's the lame money shot.
  11. Thanks, this is good to know. I remember Wes touting the fact that the composite dates centered on December 18, 2009 had several KU dates. We haven't seen such a clustering in a loooonnnngggg time.
  12. IIRC, '61 was represented twice on both lists and '78 once on both as well.
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