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Rainshadow5.8

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Everything posted by Rainshadow5.8

  1. Tomorrow"s (it is getting late anyway), I have not seen anything at .1" or higher. Even Sunday on GFS now down to .01". I might cut the grass on Saturday.
  2. For the first time since God knows when the number of hospital discharges > number of hospital admissions in New York State. I don't know if that is just COVID or all. Either way for one day, there are more beds.
  3. New York at least has been aggressive with testing, 221,000. NJ & PA by comparison around 50K. I kind of inbetween on confirmed cases results. I think there is some there, there, not a total waste of a statistic. But until NY rolls over and Spain rolls over (probably in reverse order), April will be the cruelest month. The NY doubling time has slowed, they no longer have the statistical impossibility of having more deaths than the U.S. come April 10th.
  4. I have crossed every part of my body.
  5. I have heard different thoughts because of testing limitations and lag time in results. God rest their souls, there is less debate about people dying. (Well not totally; dying from vs dying with, I just want to bang my head against the wall when I start reading that.) This curve also seems to be bending. Please don't jinx this Tony, we are not going to be at 10,000 deaths on Friday.
  6. Was there a study on Remicade or Humira done? When you posted autoimmune it struck me just reading/seeing accounts on individuals who pass. I don't want to go down the media rabbit hole, but it almost feels like a Russian roulette game if you get it, depending upon how amok your immune system gets if/once it reaches the lungs. The circle of people I know who have it is getting closer. Friends of friends have passed away from it already. I know a spotter (and wife) who have it in Morris County and thank God they are doing fine. Then meanwhile another Spotter's friend died at 30. There looks like there is alot of fast tracking going on, so even if not vaccines, I would imagine some anti-viral cocktail would be ready to use come this fall and even a vaccine a year from now (the way it normally works) would be warp 4.
  7. The Euro is amazingly consistent, pandemic or not, when it is day 9 it is:
  8. Roger Edwards from SPC knows a doctor in OKC who also talks about COVID-19 on YouTube. I am paraphrasing him, the hydroxycholorquine seems to work best before symptoms get awful, before having to be transferred into the ICU. I think the numbers to watch out for from NY State is the number of patients who are getting admitted to the ICU, especially if case and hospital admissions are still rising. Confirmed cases are still rising, at least for one day their (NY) number dropped. Admissions to the ICU are jumpier, but their peak is still last Friday. As for NJ awful new high today and given the positive pending test results expect an awful new high tomorrow.
  9. This is New Jersey this morning, it is better than the one I posted on Saturday and I am praying the social distancing/figures last several days is the reason it is trending in a better direction.
  10. A perfect 4 of 4, all major climate sites had a top ten warmest Morch.
  11. As long as I don't jinx this again. Italy's peak with both means our peak is on its way this month.
  12. Sobering day of many ahead unfortunately, a 4K rise in confirmed cases. Seven states with 1K or more new cases today. A new high, really new low, in daily deaths. NJ alone has about 3K positive pending not counted in the official count yet. The only encouraging news (this was shown at the press conference) is that Italy's number of new cases was again only around 4K and they had over 1K of cured cases. I want to go to bed with a happier thought so going to assume this is one of the smallest net differentials they have had in a long while. I did ask a former NWS SOO who is alot better with stats than me if there is an approximate lag time between Italy and us.
  13. Rumor has it next season the models will get the decimal place right on these maps.
  14. They do that after any warm March. Criminal to be selling them, one cold morning and the plants are dead. Then they have to go back to Home Depot to buy more.... Yes marine drizzly shank here too.
  15. This one is a little more optimistic than the other public access modeling site. I hope that is right. NY would not 40,000 ventilators if this model is closer. Speaking of hoping it is right, I am hoping social distancing > inability to get tested is the reason this confirmed case curve is bending to the right.
  16. During the last week the global increase in confirmed daily cases has been +42K, +52K, +63K, +65K, +64K, +57K, +66K. This is around a 730 am snapshot by me.
  17. There is terrible news and not as terrible news. In the latter and caveat about testing as always, the number of new confirmed cases increased from Sunday, but not by a large percentage.
  18. This one was more of a case of a misplaced axis. But it is what it is. This is only the second time this cold season that a QPF event ended up being wetter than the GEFS Mean and the GEFS Mean won! Last time was 12/16/19 (I included table). This was also the first time that the models were all too dry since January 25th. I can't go back and look at the Euro, but in the GFS (looked at GGEM too) case it is because its predicted axis of heavier rain was too north. The Dec 2019 system was also another w-e system with 2ndry development near us. The SREF which was wayyyy dry came in last place. The arw(s) were no help with this event.
  19. As much as I am (too) polyannaish about U.S. numbers on my Facebook page, trying to be objective a good trend in Europe "should" result in a good trend here in about two weeks. So while locally and especially in NJ the numbers sucked today, Italy's new case number was way down. Spain & Germany not completely in, but they should also be down. Spain might have a 4th day in a row of lower new cases. UK's number should not set a new high and neither did France's. Locally we have to start looking at NY's numbers as they shot up first. If they start showing a new case top, we should follow them within a week. I know this is not exact and I get remarks from friends on Facebook about what the numbers should really be and what a surprise it matches their opinion on this pandemic. For me the numbers are the numbers for now. Maybe researchers years, decades down the line maybe will make a more accurate tally. But for now, I am just posting them as they are. I think most of us are intelligent to know they are good faith estimates under the horrific circumstances.
  20. The October outing could be in trouble.
  21. I am not an unbiased person. But I really think you could keep social distancing guidelines if you keep a two person golfer limit per tee time (and space them out by 10 minutes). Probably what will happen is that some courses will cheat and then they become foursomes and there that goes.
  22. They revised the number upward. Which in reality is more accurate. NYC reports a second number around 8 pm. They have a 00z UTC reset on worldometer.
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