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Rainshadow5.8

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Rainshadow5.8 last won the day on July 25

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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. GFS 6/8/12z.............100F (90F) on 6/23. 6/10/18z...........101F (89F) on 6/22 and 80F (68F at max temp) dew point. 6/19/12z............100F on 6/30 (86F) & 7/1 (87F). 6/19/18z............100F (90F) on 6/29 (with 87F (60F at max temp) dew point), 102F (86F) on 6/30 & 100F (87F) on 7/1. 6/20/12z.............102F (93F) on 7/2 and a lovely 81F (60F at max temp) dew point. 6/28/12z.............103F (90F) on 7/11 6/29/12z..............100F (91F) on 7/12 6/30/00z..............100F (90F) on 7/11 7/1/00z.................100F on 7/11 (90F) & 7/12 (91F) 7/2/12z.................102F (90F) on 7/17, Yummo 80F (70F) dew point. 7/3/00z.................102F on 7/13 (88F) & 101F (87F) on 7/14 7/3/18z................104F on 7/15 (89F) , 101F on 7/16 (83F) & 7/17 (90F) 7/4/06z................101F on 7/15 (89F) & 102F (83F) on 7/16 7/4/12z................101F on 7/16 (83F) & 100F (95F) on 7/19 7/5/06z................100F (83F) on 7/16 7/6/12z.................100F (95F) on 7/21 7/8/06z................100F on 7/22 (94F) & 101F (91F) on 7/23 7/8/12z................100F (90F) on 7/17 & 101F (93F) on 7/18 7/8/18z................100F (91F) on 7/23 7/9/00z................100F on 7/21 (95F) 7/9/06z.................100F (95F) on 7/19, 101F (96F) on 7/20 and 100F (95F) on 7/21 7/10/06z...............101F (89F) on 7/25 7/11/12z...............100F (89F) on 7/25 7/15/12z...............100F (94F) on 7/26 7/25/12z...............100F on 8/9 8/6/06z.................101F on 8/20 Euro 6/14/00z.......100F (89F) on 6/22 (This is a first, GFS only 92F (89F) ) 6/22/00z.......101F (87F) on 7/1 (GFS 99F (87F) ) 6/22/12z.......105F (87F) on 7/1 (GFS 79F (87F) ) 6/29/00z.......100F (97F) on 7/3 (GFS 92F (97F) ) 6/30/00z.......100F (97F) on 7/3 (GFS 95F (97F) ) 6/30/12z........100F (97F) on 7/3 (GFS 95F (97F) ) 7/1/00z..........100F (97F) on 7/3 (GFS 92F (97F) ) 7/4/00z..........101F on 7/12 (91F) & 7/13 (88F) (GFS, a pair of 90s, (91F), (88F) ) 7/8/00z..........103F (90F) on 7/17 (GFS, 94F (90F) ) 7/18/00z........100F (94F) on 7/26 (day 9, interesting) (GFS, 87 (94F) ) There is a pattern here..... 7/19/00z........101F (93F) on 7/28 (GFS, 82F (93F) ) 7/19/12z........100F (94F) on 7/26 (GFS, 85F (94F)) 7/20/00z........103F (95F) on 7/27, 102F (93F) on 7/28 & 103F (93F) on 7/29 (GFS 91F (95F) , 93F (93F) & 97F (93F) ) 7/20/12z........100F (93F) on 7/28 (GFS, 97F (93F) ) 7/21/12z........100F (95F) on 7/27 (GFS, 92F (95F) ) Honorable GFS Mentions 6/20/00z............99F (93F) on 7/2 6/21/12z............99F (93F) on 7/2 6/22/00z............99F (89F) on 6/30 6/28/18z.............99F (90F) on 7/11 6/29/00z.............99F on 7/10 (78F) & 7/11 (90F) 6/30/00z.............99F (87F) on 7/14 7/1/06z................99F (91F) on 7/12 7/1/18z................99F (91F) on 7/12 7/3/00z................99F on 7/12 (91F) & 7/15 (89F) 7/3/12z................99F (88F) on 7/13. 7/3/18z................99F (87F) on 7/14 7/4/12z................99F (89F) on 7/15 7/6/12z.................99F (96F) on 7/20 7/6/18z.................99F (90F) on 7/17 7/9/00z.................99F (90F) on 7/17, 7/20 (96F) & 7/23 (91F) 7/9/06z.................99F (90F) on 7/17, 7/18 (93F) & 7/21 (95F) (Six consecutive days of 99F or higher) 7/9/12z.................99F (94F) on 7/22 7/10/06z...............99F (86F) on 7/24 7/11/12z...............99F (86F) on 7/24 7/12/18z...............99F (95F) on 7/21 7/16/18z...............99F (95F) on 7/21 7/17/00z...............99F (84F) on 7/31 7/18/06z...............99F (95F) on 7/30 7/20/12z...............99F (84F) on 7/31 7/24/18z...............99F on 8/9 Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher: 39 Number of times ECMWF has forecast a high of 100F or higher: 18 Number of times GFS has forecast a high of 100F or higher within 10 days: 5 Number of times GFS & ECMWF forecast 100F on the same day within 10 days: 0 Number of 100 degree days at PHL: 0
  2. Yeah you have the combination of it being beyond day 6 plus some dollar cost averaging caused by different timing of any return of the heat, plus modeling errors. Now a Mon-Wed heat wave or 90s spell. But look at week 2.
  3. Approximate path thru PHI CWA:
  4. I am not aware of one. You could create your own using (not a joke name) Acme Mapper http://mapper.acme.com/ and the archive information off the NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/ISAIAS.shtml?.
  5. The GFS snuck in another la la land over 100 yesterday. It would be a contest of which the GFS does more of >99, the temperature, or the consecutive number of hours with measurable pcpn.
  6. 0.26" with morning thunderstorms in Mount Laurel. I see the 12z GFS gives PHL 48 consecutive hours of measurable rain starting this morning. I must admit it was hard to add up that number through all the glare from the bright sunshine.
  7. Lol I thought the same thing. I was counting leaves.
  8. Well it looks okay going forward. Okay relative to July. Yeah we are seeing a bump up after this trof clears the area at the start of next week. That EPS run of low-mid 80s now had (00z run) some upper 80s which means around 90 in it. Then the second half of the week looks like (beyond day 6, so there is that) there is enough of a gradient flow aloft to not keep cooking the air mass. Regardless, the MJO is on the move again and phases 1 & 2 did us no favor (tropically or otherwise), so any change he says has to be better. The long awaited sojourn into phase 8 is la la land outlooked for the middle of the month. There could be some nice days with that. Eventually the MJO will get around to more favorable phases for the tropics later in the month, so we have that going for us.
  9. Sad, but true. You even got the near Gilly max.
  10. The trees that were the source of our outage.
  11. Well it is 2020, so based on that.....
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