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Rainshadow5.8

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Rainshadow5.8 last won the day on July 25

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  1. Yes higher risk for tornadoes.
  2. John, Yes, agree. 12z GFS passes Isaias right over Philadelphia. Barring some big adjustment the heaviest rains should be in Pennsylvania. We have already established a rather busy pathway that includes our area already and it is only early August.
  3. It weakened by 4 mb instead, so they were off by 12mb. More of the tropical storm watches were changed to tropical storm warnings (in red).
  4. Beyond not the Euro because it is intensifying it over land, I don't know. Every model has that compact bowling ball look. Every model is enhancing the winds somewhat on the east side because of convergence/channeling up the bays. I am taking down anything that could be tossed around by the winds today, it is just not worth wondering tomorrow. I hope the beans don't mind that the poles will be gone.
  5. Yeah east of the center; it is predicted to start motoring so you have wind plus motion on the east side. Farther inland thinking the worst winds may be close to the initial northwest flow when dry air starts mixing in. I think of Floyd and Gloria where the strongest winds I experienced were on the back side.
  6. It has not been the Ukie's storm. For its (and ICON) mslp forecast at 11 am to verify, Isaias is going to have to deepen 8 mb from its 8 am strength and I am not seeing a plethora of convection near the center at the moment.
  7. It was kind of like that with Fay too. Other than places north and west of us, we caught a break with no rain today or yesterday. BTW in terms of Euro landcaning (there is going to be some synoptic scale boosting, but....): Difference in predicted sfc pressure at landfall and nearest forecast pass to PHL, a negative number means, lower mslp : 06z Euro: -8mb 06z GFS: 0mb 06z Nam: +3mb 00z Ggem: 0mb 06z Icon: +11mb 00z Ukmet: +2mb 127 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC.
  8. I am going to have to wait to see if this is a trend. The Euro did the landcane with Hanna in Mexico. Once it's weird. Twice it starts becoming a new upgrade bias. BTW this is one of those cases because of the heavy rain and longer duration (it is not a 30 minute thunderstorm), you get more wind (tree) damage than you would typically get all things being equal.
  9. GFS (looks like) has owned the timing on this, it has been during the day on Tuesday for a while. You'd think at first glance looking at these maps, it was a forecast gif, not a trend gif.
  10. To finish off the pole beans, one has to assume that they started. It looks like Isaias is starting to leak just ever a bit right of the model track guidance. The UKMET & GGEM have been way left at times, but this is the first time that the GFS has been too left. This edging would decrease the tornado threat for our area. Not great for North Carolina. Maybe not as bad as Mexico was with Hanna, but the Euro still looks a bit too landcaneish with its pressure and I don't get the impression this version has corrected its slow bias.
  11. I gave up on it raining in time for our patio potted vegetables and the vegetables along our house to be spared today. It was brutal watering them. Now 23 out of the last 32 days with 90 or above at PHL.
  12. This 12z model suite, Isaias closer to the coast, more of a heavy rain maker, less of a wind/tornado threat I95 if holds.
  13. There wasn't much of a sea breeze front that reached us at Renault yesterday.
  14. I think the synoptic scale set-up is too good for that. We are in the RR quadrant of the 250mb jet. Yeah we know how well QPF "works" in winter, but this is a too juicy a set-up to get 25% (maybe even 50%) of the predicted rainfall. The models still maintain like a secluded wind field with this. I don't know if I ever seen that. Keep us left of the track, hate to have to deal with tornadoes too.
  15. We hit 91F today. Surprised we were hotter than PHL. Doesn't happen often.
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