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Rainshadow

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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. Hello, with this weekend system Tom & I will start the new cold season qpf verification. Like last season, we will wait until there is a clear end within 84 hours (to include the nam & sref) before starting any evaluations. Last season it was all about the EPS: out of 48 events, it came in first place 20 times. While the GEFS gave it a run for its money, the NAM came in last place in 16 events. If all models had equal skill, they would have come in first/last place 8 times each. This is the average error & bias (in inches) for all events: This was the accumulative stats for predicted/observed snow events at PHL:
  2. Yeah once you get back down to -5C, the freezing rain can change back to sleet. It looks like the NAM has warmed closer to other models. It's low is west of what the 06z & 12z runs had.
  3. The 0.9" at PHL came just in time to keep some snowfall in the table. We were about to lose the 1.4".
  4. Sounds like we are starting another spread sheet.
  5. 1/18 verification. Well I forgot the GFS was changing the snow to rain and even though its qpf was wetter than wet (last place finish), its snowfall forecast was not as off as it was right for the wrong reason as it was changing the snow to rain. The OP EC won the qpf side of the contest. Snowfall ended up being a tie between the GEFS & EPS for first place and everybody's favorite too snowy NAM coming in last. There have been only 3 snow event so far, so in fairness this is the first time the NAM has come in last wrt snowfall forecast. NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx
  6. PHL had 0.9" snow and .06" w/e for this morning's event (1/18). Going to keep in the EC family on this one. I believe either the EC or EPS has won every snow event so far for PHL.
  7. With today's (18th) event, the NAM did a better job with the 2M temps than the GFS did. That is not a stretch or surprise and we are getting closer to its wheel house (24 hours or less) time. As long as its track looks similar to modeling consensus, I would use its thermals over most other models.
  8. Ok, let's get back to keeping the discussion on the models and expected weather. Yes I used to work at the NWS and this (and every other) government shutdown stinks. The people in Washington should remember they work for us, not for their respective parties or only work for getting re-elected. Back on planet Earth, whatever differences, concerns, odd looking forecast office boundaries, etc. I am pretty sure are going to be gone by the time you wake up tomorrow morning. One has to be living on Pluto to not realize a """""""""storm""""""""""""""" is coming this weekend. I started get text messages on it last weekend. There are (or were) triggers based on NWS product issuances, true, but I think all of you northwest realize what a crazy tight thermal and ptype gradient there is going to be with this storm, so let's get back to talking about how the ICON is run out of a freezer in Hamburg and who gets NAMMED with the 00z run....
  9. That wasn't too hard a guess, not as if the other members were warm though.
  10. This -NAO is courtesy of the retrograding Scandinavian Ridge in the shorter term. Tony, but, but, but didn't you say NAO skill drops off the cliff after day 7? Yup. That (inability to outlook NAO correctly) is probably a contributing element as to why Thanksgiving Week & the last 10 days of November warm up has been waning.
  11. Oh contraire. $210 round trip, not bad at all and the golf courses will be empty as the locals will be freezing and I will be sweating.
  12. I would venture a guess that the 18z GFS is going to be the colder than all its ensembles members. Snow in Florida.
  13. At least that should prevent the usual 50 mile back up on interstate 78 in Berks County anytime it snows or sleets heavily.
  14. More like: MJO might not be in a true phase 4 or 5 at the time anyway, yeah anything between 1/22 and 2/12 is Strat Standard Time to me.
  15. They don't make MJO phase 4 or 5 the way they used to. That Map reminds me of the arctic blasts from the mid 1980s.
  16. I knew Tom would grow to "💘" convection.
  17. BTW in scenarios like this I used to take the second coldest model surface temp progs as a basis for freezing rain placement as a ptype. Shawn is right about north and west struggling to get above freezing in CAD, it was one of the reasons the PHL northwest suburb zone counties were split.
  18. Shawn, great post. That sounding is so cold near the surface, it might go back to sleet.
  19. Rainshadow

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    We hit the 50 page threshold, so with the start of the new season, we will start a new thread. The 69F at Midnight cost PHL the chance to tie 1978 for the most number of days with mins of 70F or higher for August.
  20. The early sunsets the next three months are going to feel like they go on forever and ever and ever...
  21. Rainshadow

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    Canadian weeklies look like they have a reboot warmer week 3 before becoming colder again week 4. Both look like they center the coldest cold fwiw in Illinois/Ohio Valley.
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