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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. With the start of meteorological winter and since the last thread reached 60 pages, we will start a new one. 0.03" overnight, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
  2. Thanks, we can stop with this one and continue with the second one centered on tomorrow. I think with the last one on the weekend, we can start with the 00z run tonight (23rd/00z).
  3. I will check with Tom on when to start and the logistics. The 0.1" criteria with the GFS giving out qpf as if it was Halloween candy we had nearly 50 predicted (thanks GFS) or observed events last cold season. Anyway comes as little surprise that the NAM averaged the most inaccurate while the EPS averaged most accurate (and the lowest wet bias, all models averaged too wet) last cold season. Sheet 1 on this attachment has some highlights. The most accurate model for the specific event is highlighted in red, the least accurate highlighted in green. I will try to add the snow results on Sunday. These are average errors: new2016-7qpf.xlsx
  4. Which probably means near normal highs on non precip days and below normal highs on precip days. This looks like a stock market retest of the lows, so the bull stratospheric market will start going from here: (P.S. Our flux capacitor is broken).
  5. SSW is here.... CWG three week SSW DCA climo average ETA would be March 5th.
  6. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    My neighbor (who must have his a/c on autopilot) also had it on yesterday. It was still humming (really clanking away) last night as the temperatures dropped into the 50s.
  7. 00z NAEFS similar, 3/2 to 3/9 warm north, near normal near us. Cold concentrated in Europe. 00z GEFS pushed non stop below normal heights back to March 6th. There are below normal heights for parts of the Mount Holly CWA starting on the 2nd, but no longer everywhere and every time until the 6th. 06z GFS ends with 180 consecutive hours of sub 528 thicknesses, I'll take the under.
  8. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Mount Pocono went from setting its all-time February max temp record to sleet within 24 hours.
  9. Well we will see how our ensemble competitors do this snow season. Last season there was a general 2:1 overforecast of snow for PHL, aided by the Sleet/freezing Rain & Not Snow Storm in March. The worst underforecast was the truck back up storm of early January. Last winter, if you wanted a guarantee for Philly to measure snow, the EPS mean had to be at least 2.3" and the GEFS 2.5". Here are a few graphs from last snow season. GEFS starts out this season with a 1.1" average (10:1 ratio) through 7 pm December 8th. Forecasts are along the X axis, observed Y axis.
  10. Congrats Gilly finally beat VAY. High here 78F.
  11. Tom, tough to split these out. But maybe with the second wave, start a second listing only precip from 12z Friday thru 12z Saturday with the 00z run this morning, the 21st. Then maybe a last one (too early for this one) from 12z Saturday to the end. The current list we started we could probably end it with the 12z run today. I have a long working day today, so let me know if this is possible. I will see it later. Thanks!
  12. The 00z NAEFS warmed, now uncertain about 3/1 - 3/8 temps. 00z GEFS brings steady below normal heights starting March 3rd.
  13. The errors may decrease pending their handling of March snow with likely more near zero forecasts than Feb around those event(s). Right now the bias is less than last season, but the errors larger than last season. EPS maintains the lead (the gap will narrow the next couple of days). EPF.GEFS Snow Comp.xlsx
  14. The bay and river saved them. My overnight min was 59.5F . Currently its 64F. Which makes this NAM MOS max temp forecast of 67F for today at VAY so dumb its an insult to dumb people.
  15. I'd def go way over nam mos too. It was atrocious today.
  16. If you are getting tired of this please let me know. I know they are stacked up again. (Cut the first one off thru 12z Friday if possible).
  17. Well with the warmfrontal associated precipitation that fell mainly north of Philadelphia through the morning of the 20th, there was a return to "normalcy". PHL traced out. The OP EC never bit on precipitation occurring as far south as PHL as the GFS/GEFS & NAM initially did. That pretty much made it a three model race to the bottom that the WEFS won. NEW2017-8qpf.xlsx
  18. Max temps at climate sites: PHL 72F ILG 75F ABE 63F ACY 73F GED 73F RDG 64F TTN 70F MPO 66F
  19. Barring something unexpected four or five days from now, the GEFS is going to be making up ground on the EPS EPF.GEFS Snow Comp.xlsx