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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. Wouldnt it be nice to have September in September this season instead of the Augtember of the last two years.
  2. True. The Euro ensembles weeks 3 or 4 in particular rarely deviate much from + / - 1 so they lose in warm years for not recognizing warm weeks either. This also could be a case that the weeklies don't know Philly is an urban site.
  3. Week just concluded in PHL average -1F and both the Euro & CFS2 returned to their normal bias and were too cold, this time in a cold week. Running total for year:
  4. CFS2 run continues to bring a milder pattern in the LLLLLLLLV section. On the plus side IMO anything beyond week 2 (and sometimes week 2) is for entertainment purposes only. I'd say weeks 3 & 5 pattern look the warmest for us, week 6 has a colder look, of course all of this is in the entertainment section. Week 1 has the -nao/+pna pattern at its strongest, which starts to unwind in week 2. Weeks 3 to 6 have an outlooked +nao pattern with the highest height departures over the lower Mississippi week 3, over us week 4, off the east coast week 5 and in the central Atlantic week 6. The greast hints at Aleutian troffing are weeks 4 & 6. Previous Monday outlook anomaly for same week in parenthesis. Week 1.....-4F (+1F) taking the under seemed wise Week 2.....-1F (+2F) Week 3.....+3F (+2F) Week 4......+2F (+2F) Week 5......+2F (+2F) (TTidbits) Week 6.....+1F (TTidbits) Pcpn Week 1...below Week 2...below Week 3...normal Week 4...wet Week 5....wet (TTidbits) Week 6....normal (TTidbits)
  5. The German modeled backed northwest a bit almost to I295, but overall where the models were at 00z, they are still there now.
  6. Its rain, but this looks like the classic set-up of the GFS being too far southeast to begin with and then backing up as we get closer. Beside the implication of when its not rain this winter (does this bias still ring true), its the first test of this model bias and also do I give the German model's qpf too much credit. That's .4" on the Euro for PHL, so basically if this is snow its warning criteria for basically the entire Mt. Holly CWA (GGEM) vs warning criteria I95 southeastward (EC, UKMET (not pictured), JMA, NAM) vs what snow???? (GFS & DWD).
  7. I can't get there from here. Do you have a more specific link?
  8. This is the thread Tom dreads getting started because it must mean the days are getting shorter. A research paper Jack (everytime I drive thru Hammonton, I still think about you and miss you ) showed me years ago about the relationship between the Newfoundland ssta pool in May-Jul and repeating itself as a NAO indicator for the upcoming winter. In the days ahead I will go back and corroborate this, but last year's positive pool correlated with the positive nao for the winter making it 15 of 19 times correct picking the correct direction of the nao since the winter of 1997-98. Well ladies and gents, don't have the psd re-analysis data in just yet, but at first look. it looks like the pool is negative this predicative season (or at the absolute worst neutral). Even looking at the bigger picture, it looks like the whole north atlantic ssta pattern retrograded farther to the west. Granted the Pacific has a say too in it, but overall it looks like to me that the Atlantic should be less hostile this winter and maybe be as bold to say more hospitable overall. I tried to get the pool spot about the same, south of Newfoundland. Last year: This year May/June This season (some slippage including July): Last Season: This May & June: Winter 2016-17 500 mb pattern anomaly (move everything west for this winter?):
  9. Response I wrote to the other Tom on facebook: It is a step down from October (ok would have been tough to be a step up). There is also the random element that the NAO could go negative, which really was never the case last winter. Since 1950 the warmest winter combos were an average October / warm November which happened 7 times; in second place was a warm October / average November which happened 5 times. Warm October / cold November combo produced a top third winter 3 times and those winters were weak nino and a pair of enso neutral negatives. So getting this November toward or below 45.5F has some merit for a colder winter. Month to date for PHL currently is 48.7F.
  10. My only thought is a question, are these posted on Dr. Maue's twitter account, or is there a weather.us link? I am working Monday, so I'd rather see it centered on a working day than an off day. Thank-you very much Euro!
  11. The dollar cost average 500mb pattern looks especially on TTidbits are so zonalish I never know how much to increase the amplitude. The temps after week 2 are above, again its after week 2.
  12. In general CFS2 weeklies undo the -nao pattern after week 2 and are fairly stoutly ninaish from week 3 beyond. I'd say week 3 looks the torchiest, but anything beyond week 2 in either direction is for entertainment purposes only. Not much skill past day 8 with the nao and it was already proven this month.
  13. CFS2 weeklies fwiw (and it is fwiw beyond week 2) do that also, pretty much +nao.
  14. I will check with Tom on when to start and the logistics. The 0.1" criteria with the GFS giving out qpf as if it was Halloween candy we had nearly 50 predicted (thanks GFS) or observed events last cold season. Anyway comes as little surprise that the NAM averaged the most inaccurate while the EPS averaged most accurate (and the lowest wet bias, all models averaged too wet) last cold season. Sheet 1 on this attachment has some highlights. The most accurate model for the specific event is highlighted in red, the least accurate highlighted in green. I will try to add the snow results on Sunday. These are average errors: new2016-7qpf.xlsx
  15. No convection getting to the dateline because of what's left of the nina is usually strongest there? I have also heard of the statement about the atmospheric lag to the response of the ssta changes, which also makes sense. So we have a conundrum going as to which prevails. Let's just put up a winter storm watch for Long Island & New England and then go home.
  16. You must really want this to happen, you posted it twice.
  17. 1.2 always has alot of volatility. The natural progression with ninas (or ninos) is for the first sign of decay is in this region. Not saying this is the case now, just speaking in generalities.
  18. Euro's (This is in kph) 300mb jet:
  19. GFS's & GGEM's 250mb jet are nearly in the same position at this forecast time, neither jet supports their individual qpf forecast solutions. (GFS too far SE, GGEM its not eggnog season yet).
  20. Losing the beginning of next week (the 26th & 27th), NAEFS is losing the cold.
  21. November 18th-19th Wind & Temp Obs

    Your ground looks snow covered.