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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. 0.11" with the while I was food shopping thunderstorm. A couple of big drops now. I take.
  2. I am sure it has muddied the waters as ongoing precipitation heading into the PHL nw burbs are. I felt a couple of drops, hoping that convection stats together to our west. HRRR has become more disjointed.
  3. The SE ridge is making a comeback. OP EC has gone one extreme or another with it (70s or 90s). Now two hot runs in a row where it is nearly in outliar territory with a 3 day heat wave Tue-Thu. Regardless this may be the best chance for at least one widespread 90 degree day for the region.
  4. Sunday looks like the warmest of the three days, best chance for a 90. It is also the best day for a thunderstorm. They still look hit/miss and our way would be toward or in the evening.
  5. That is typically our case where instability and kinematics do not coincide. The 3km NAM does look slightly better than the 06z HRRR with what is going on. Now that the NCAR mesoscale convective models are gone, the best of the rest is normally the arw (it is afar second though) and it has most of the meaty convection north of us. Sprinklers on. That didn't take long...
  6. 3km NAM starts capped during the afternoon and the cap goes as dew points pool. This is starting to get kind of late here, but the timing looks better for Mitch & JamieO.
  7. Wayne is a member from Cape May. Spoken to him many a time at Mount Holly. Congrats Wayne!
  8. Have to see the dew point recovery. The predicted wind field is impressive.
  9. 00z May 22nd GEFS non above normal 500mb heights June 1st & June 4th thru end of run on the 6th.
  10. This morning is going to be my first full cut of our backyard without creating 3 inch deep ruts.
  11. Yeah just glancing at the poor man's quick look of predicted total totals in the lower 50s for PHL according to the GFS, that is not shabby. It is cold enough aloft at 500mb.
  12. ...Northeast States through Ohio Valley... The warm sector will gradually moisten west of the warm front during the day with low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath 6.5 C/km lapse rates, along with diabatic warming contributing to modest instability (800-1200 J/kg MLCAPE). Current indications are that storms will most likely develop along and ahead of southeast-advancing cold front spread southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast States during the afternoon and evening. Winds will strengthen as the mid-level speed max attending the shortwave trough approaches the region with effective shear supporting supercells. These storms may produce large hail, damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes as they move southeast through the region later Thursday afternoon into the evening.
  13. At least in terms of wetness, aside from the far SE, most of the CONUS has been wetter than normal the last 90 days which is encouraging at least from a start to keep a heat ridge from feeding upon itself. I don't know if that SE ridge popping up can be assisted by what is going on in FL/GA, we will see going forward. Alot of the GFS fantasy 90s fade as we get in closer to forecast time. Of course some of this is business as usual for that model, but at least in a backhanded sense it is encouraging to see most of them get purged even before they leave la la land.
  14. BTW, we didn't think it was wise for Tom to be part of the summer outlook. He would have deliberately 7 or 8 putted to increase the number of 90 degree days. We save Tom for the all important winter season, he nailed December's temperatures last season.
  15. On a windy day with rough in places as tall as Bethpage Black, Al, Charlie & Tony will try to improve upon their Summer 2018 outlook (which wasn't all that bad) today. The crux of the outlook (# of 90 degree days for PHL) was made on the 18th hole, a 363 yard par 4 that played straight into the 10-20 mph wind. The tropical outlook was based on the tricky 130 yard par 3 that played to a cross wind or no wind. Anyway without further ado, the ACT model is outlooking 28 days of 90 degrees or higher at PHL and (this is banter) no tropical (or hurricane) force winds (this is banter) in the region this season (banter, banter, banter). We already have a solid built in excuse when this outlook goes wrong, we were suppose to upgrade to the A2CT model for this summer outlook, but Chris couldn't make it today. So any errors on the outlook will be blamed on Chris and we will be able to accurately say what his scores on the 13th & 18th holes would have been if he was here.
  16. 50s water temps don't buy what they once used to....
  17. OP EC & UKMET look very good, GGEM the wettest. GFS a compromise. Scenario is basically moved up a day from last weekend. Getaway Friday very nice, Saturday an overnight CFP maybe too late for much activity, Sunday, warmer (closest threat to 90F), but becoming drier and then maybe Monday the wettest of the three days if the wave on the front is real.
  18. CFS2 Monday Weeklies starting 5/20 Week 1...........-EPO / -PNA / -NAO Greatest Conus Negative Anomaly Utah; Greatsest Conus Pos Anomaly Williamsburg, Virginia Week 2.......... -EPO /-PNA / -NAO (not as much as week 1) Greatest CONUS neg SoCal; Highest Pos Anomaly SE Ridge Week 3..........-EPO / Neutral PNA / +NAO No NOAM neg anolamies; Greatest CONUS pos anomalies along 50N Week 4..........-EPO / Neutral maybe pos PNA/ +NAO Trof / Ridge / Trof across CONUS, greatest positive anomalies in Ontario Week 5..........-EPO / Neutral maybe pos PNA/ +NAO Trof / Ridge / Trof across CONUS; Heat Ridge Western Plains Week 6..........-EPO / Neutral maybe pos PNA/ +NAO Trof / Ridge / Trof across CONUS; Heat Ridge Northern Plains Week 1 verification: ....-4F (-2F)........over (need a Sat & Sun toward GFS) Actual -1F Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in Parenthesis) Week 1.....+6F (+4F)......under (based on last week's over/under, I guess I am expecting a +5) Week 2.....+3F (+2F)......over Week 3......0F (+2F).......over Week 4......0F (+2F).......over Week 5......+2F (+1F) (TTidbits).....under Week 6....+3F (TTidbits).....under Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parenthesis) DROUGHT!!!! Week 1........dry (dry) Week 2........normal (wet) Week 3........normal (normal) Week 4........dry (dry) Week 5........dry (dry) (TTidbits) Week 6........dry (TTidbits) Tropics Week 1 Caribbean Week 2 Very Bullish Greater Antilles Week 3 Atlantic Week 4 GufMex Weeks 5 & 6 Lesser Antilles
  19. Canadian Weeklies starting 5/20. Temperature: Above normal weeks 1 & 4. Near normal weeks 2 & 3. Precipitation: Dry Week 1, Near normal weeks 2 & 3. Wet week 4. Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Nada weeks 1 & 2, GufMex Week 3, Around Florida Week 4.
  20. It also means you still have time to change your Philly 90 degree day(s) outlook for the warm season.
  21. I am not aware of that specific a database as you worded it. As Greg posted just because we ae under moderate doesn't necessarily mean activity would be worse than a slight risk day. SPC has archives back to 2003 on their outlooks: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ But that is alot of clicking. I would bypass last year, PHI issued more FFW(s) than SVR(s) last year.
  22. Latest wunderground rounding to nearest degree has given me a high of 89F in Mount Laurel so far today and PHL's high is either 89F or 90F. There have been some in NJ:
  23. Just sniffing anvils. In full summer mode.
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