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Rainshadow

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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    We hit the 50 page threshold, so with the start of the new season, we will start a new thread. The 69F at Midnight cost PHL the chance to tie 1978 for the most number of days with mins of 70F or higher for August.
  2. Last time PHL had a September with an average temperature less than 70F was 2013.....
  3. 00z/19th GEFS Above normal 500mb heights (what else?) return on the 20th as the Southeast CONUS ridge slides offshore and is outlooked to remain there for a while. We have a Gulf of Alaska ridge / Central Conus Trof / East Coast Ridge, so there will be some cooler air arriving in NOAM. Back in the day this was a stable autumn climo pattern because of the ocean waters still relatively warm. Anyway this pattern is outlooked to progress slight east toward the end of the month with the ridge more centered on the west coast and trof in Great Lakes. After the 29th we never get below normal heights, but above normal 500mb heights are gone. From the 29th til the end (October 4th), the WAR flexes every once in a while edging above normal heights back into our area. 00z/22nd GEFS -EPO pattern, but shorter wavelength & SE Conus/SW Atlantic ridge keeps us in above normal 500mb heights the rest of September, any colder dump west. Not much change the first week of October either, above normal heights with a flatter but still present southeast ridge and ridging through Alaska. FWIW this is not just a 500mb pattern being misleading, very little of the next 384 hours outlooking below normal 850mb anomalies either. Pretty dramatic one day NAEFS change even if the days are not exactly the same:
  4. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Literally food for thought. Genetically Modified Fruits and Vegetables are Becoming a Reality. Are You Ready? John Egan September 6, 2018 Nutrition Print “Frankenfoods” — which critics believe are the genetically modified monsters of our food chain — are simultaneously gaining and losing ground. On the one hand, foods with genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are undergoing a wave of innovation. The Guardian newspaper recently reported that gene-editing tools like Crispr are paving the way for “a new range of fruits and vegetables that look, taste and feel very different [than] those we are used to.” Two examples: peach-flavored strawberries and seedless tomatoes. On the other hand, there’s increasing pushback against gene-edited foods. For instance, the European Union (EU) Court of Justice ruled in July 2018 that gene-edited crops must fall under the EU’s GMO guidelines, “dealing a potentially devastating blow to the development of enhanced crops and their underlying industry in Europe,” according to The Crispr Journal, a peer-reviewed publication that focuses on gene-editing technology. Unlike the EU, the U.S. lacks an “established regulatory framework” for overseeing the introduction of new GMO techniques like gene editing, according to the Non-GMO Project, a major labeler of natural non-GMO products. Are GMO fruits and vegetables safe? Amid the gene-editing tug of war, you might be wondering: Should I be worried? What’s going to happen to the apples and oranges I buy at the grocery store? While many scientists and medical professionals insist GMO foods are safe, foes continue to maintain a healthy skepticism — and fret about what the future holds. “Of course, we can’t necessarily predict how any future genetic modifications might affect our food chain, but we can look at [genetically modified] foods thus far and decide on that basis,” says Dr. Lauren Deville, a naturopathic physician who’s the author of “The Holistic Gut Prescription” and “How to Be Healthy: Body, Mind, and Spirit.” Deville points out that some research suggests genetically modified (GM) foods tend to increase the incidence of irritable bowel syndrome and leaky gut syndrome. Meanwhile, a research paper published in 2014 in the Journal of Organic Systems draws “very strong and highly significant correlations” among gene-edited crops, herbicides and “the increase in a multitude of diseases.” Laz Versalles, director of development at Accesa Labs, a provider of medical lab testing, is firmly in the anti-gene-editing camp. “We are so deep into the fold with genetically modified foods that its frightening. I’m personally dubious that a deeper dive in the name of new flavors and textures will benefit mankind,” Versalles says. “The consumer might find the upfront cost to be more affordable, the producers might benefit from higher yields, but what about the long-term costs of healthcare when an entire generation has been raised on fake food?” Versalles also questions how GMOs will affect our planet. “We’re not seeing the forest for the trees,” Versalles says. “When we see patients go to a strict whole-food diet, we see people get healthier in a matter of weeks. That should tell us something. Real food matters.” Caleb Backe, a health and wellness expert at Maple Holistics, a retailer of natural and organic beauty products, sees the gene-editing discussion from a different perspective. “Messing with nature has always come at a price — always with advantages and disadvantages,” Backe says. “I feel the key is to leave the option open … . My issue with the proponents of genetically modified foods is that some are talking about replacing nature, rather than providing an alternative to go alongside nature.” Backe is concerned about the prospect of, at some point, only genetically altered foods being available to us. Still, he emphasizes there are benefits to GM foods, such as: Broadening the number of places where certain foods can be grown, thus helping wipe out hunger. Enabling foods to be colored differently, thus making some healthy foods more appealing to picky kids. Introducing more fruits and vegetables into our diets. Decreasing the need for harmful pesticides. Some GM crops have been engineered to ward off pests. Backe acknowledges there’s been no long-term tests of GM foods, but he says short-term tests have yielded “encouraging results.” “GM foods seem to be healthier — or rather, not as unhealthy — than thought before. The impact on the environment is not as crucial as once suspected, and it can benefit humanity in a lot of ways,” he says. “Now, to be clear, there are three sides to every story: yours, mine and the truth. This is a truth which we may never fully know.” Backe says that while he’s never been a big fan of GM crops, they do show some promise. “As long as GM food corporations don’t muscle out regular farming and stifle it, I say it can very well lead to good things,” he says. “But it needs to controlled and monitored properly by third-party institutions, that’s for sure.” What do consumers think about GMO food? In the meantime, uneasy consumers are driving up sales of non-GMO foods. By one estimate, sales of non-GMO products in the U.S. were poised to reach $264 billion in 2017. Meanwhile, the Non-GMO Project says it’s verified more than 50,000 items as non-GMO. According to this year’s Hartman Organic and Natural Report, 46 percent of U.S. shoppers deliberately avoid GMO products, the Non-GMO Project reported in a blog post. On top of that, 36 percent of shoppers indicate they’re buying more non-GMO products than they did in 2017. In line with the Harman report, an ABCNews.com poll conducted earlier this year found that 52 percent of American adults believe GM foods are not safe to eat, and 93 percent support federally mandated labeling of GM or “bioengineered” foods. Many consumers “have an inherent mistrust of what is being done to their food,” the Non-GMO Project says, “and are concerned about the potential ramifications for their health and for our environment.” John Egan A resident of Austin, Texas, since 1999, John Egan has more than 20 years of experience in journalism, brand journalism, blogging, communications and public relations. From 1999 to 2006, John was editor and managing editor of the Austin Business Journal. John’s interests include sports, movies, music, travel and dining out. A native of Kansas, John earned a bachelor’s degree in journalism from the University of Kansas and a master’s degree in communications from Southern New Hampshire University.
  5. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Trace.
  6. Ok, I made this a closer apple to apple comparison. I know it is median vs mean. It is 31 seasons, so I couldn't put the median squarely in the middle. It turns out with the snow coverage two seasons flip to below because of the higher coverage recently: 1996-7 & 2000-1. Basically it is unchanged because it was a 50/50 split of working vs not even with the flip. Below median coverage (16) 13 of ensuing winters below the mean, 3 above the mean. Above median coverage (15) 7 ensuing winters below the mean, 8 above the mean.
  7. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Paul, Thanks!
  8. I admit I am mixing medians here as the snow coverage goes back to satellite data from the late 1960s (about 50 years), while the snowfall & temp is using the average for the last 31 years. Anyway this is snowfall for PHL:
  9. I am on my way out & I'll add snow. But recently (because it is always above the long term median) above normal October snow extent in Eurasia has had no correlation with our winter temperatures. This is for PHL and I used the 30 year moving average instead of present climo (which would probably have made it worse) normals. Edit, whoops just realized this was a 31 year average.
  10. Below normal chances reaches east to the I295/NJ Turnpike Corridor
  11. A couple of comparison maps from night run. If anyone has other links or info, please post.
  12. If there is such a thing as climo anymore, it does fit the bill of weaker el ninos and January snows. But what is up with the March will rock, make that rot, outlook?
  13. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Paul, Is this for your site or do you do an averaging of other long standing climo sites to come up with a county average? BTW PHL is up to 30 ninety degree days or higher for this year.
  14. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Keeping with the theme of higher mins, we are currently at #1, but pretty sure we wont break that this year. Current record is 66.7F in 1881.
  15. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    If it is any consolation, as far as average temperatures go, it will not be the warmest September on record in PHL. (2018 to date thru 9/19).
  16. Yup. You still need the air part to work in sync with the water. All that warm water doesn't do anything if the trades do not weaken. Interesting lag.
  17. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Oh I would agree with that. Looks like Mitch didn't escape the PHL heat island affect moving to BGM.
  18. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    It has to be quite high. Just looking at Carl's table of how many top 10s vs bottom 10s monthlies PHL has had since 1990, it is a sea of red with what three blues?
  19. The latest dynamical/statistical models cooled by about 0.1C from last month's outlook for this nino. But, they are fitting the curve much better than they did last season up to this point. BTW looking at a similar lead time (3 months) for winter, the one dynamical model that pegged the JJA enso value on the nose three months in advance was the JMA.
  20. It has been awhile since I did this (Thanks Florence). Anyway getting back on track and to piggy back on Tom's post. 00z/19th GEFS Above normal 500mb heights (what else?) return on the 20th as the Southeast CONUS ridge slides offshore and is outlooked to remain there for a while. We have a Gulf of Alaska ridge / Central Conus Trof / East Coast Ridge, so there will be some cooler air arriving in NOAM. Back in the day this was a stable autumn climo pattern because of the ocean waters still relatively warm. Anyway this pattern is outlooked to progress slight east toward the end of the month with the ridge more centered on the west coast and trof in Great Lakes. After the 29th we never get below normal heights, but above normal 500mb heights are gone. From the 29th til the end (October 4th), the WAR flexes every once in a while edging above normal heights back into our area. As September ends:
  21. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    I would say it is predominately the former thought even though Florence was weaker than she once was up our way. Here is a 7 day loop from WPC (it is probably going to be time sensitive and wont make much sense a week from now looking at this loop. The process of extratropical transition was also going on at our latitude. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/namusloop_wbg_7day.html
  22. It has been above average the entire month of September.
  23. Speaking of talk after the outing. The two weak el ninos that fit the leading up to now enso patterns the best were 2006-7 & 2014-5.
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