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Rainshadow

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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. This was not a surprise from the diagnosis the vet gave us, but this afternoon we said good-by to Molly. The sun broke out just as it set and I will take that as she is in a better place waiting for us, but for now I truly hate this month.
  2. I half hear you. Climo in the regard of ratios should definitely be given consideration. Warm ground in fall, listless snow rates during a daytime hour event make those 10:1 ratio maps untenable. But on the flip side you have to give some consideration to the air masses involved. This one behind the front is 2 to 3 SD below average at 850mb, it is quite the baroclinic zone. Yeah, those beyond day 4 (or day 9 for the Euro) near November breaking snow storms have to be approached with a skeptical eye, but the idea of getting a mulch top coating was not that off the beaten path, which in reality if dropping model ratios to 5:1 inside of 84hrs was close to what they were forecasting.
  3. A perfect 1 for 1 with foot in mouth. No measure north and west, sorry Poconos don't count for me. At least the likely part along I95 gave me a 30% out, woo-hoo. Not saying anything about coastal areas was my smartest move. As for the qpf itself, barring something else PHL had 0.10". 36 different evaluated qpf forecasts for this event, 35 will be too wet. The last NAM run (00z/12th) was the only too dry run. The EPS will be among the wettest offenders. Eyeballing the numbers it looks like this may end up being close to a 40% of predicted qpf event.
  4. 35 degrees and snowing lightly in Mount Laurel.
  5. Good thing I wasn't called the head honcho: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-models-european-american-gfs-philadelphia-20191112.html
  6. It has to be a right combination. While warmer than normal, their temps are equal or cooler than the ocean surface. So too much mixing/easterly wind components may drop the departures. Either way, the warmest anomalies of sub surface waters are now in the eastern Pacific.
  7. Then a three week lag on impacts for us once the SSW begins, so that puts us in January.
  8. Nice post said the figs never. It does make sense given you probably get impacts from the convection extending both northward and upward. Here are those recent year MJO(s): At least the GEFS has the GGEM going along with this. Don't know if that is a good or bad thing. I would guess the EPS would be more subdued with wave 1 only because it is taking the MJO into the COD.
  9. Pretty much snowing throughout the Poconos if Lehighton has snow.
  10. This is one pattern progression that appeared beyond week 2 and held its own. Granted we pretty much exhausted the -epo cold air with this second shot anyway. I know the enso is not showing it, but this month has acted like a nino November, there are a number of nino Novembers that have been cold (even dud winter 1997-98). It'd be a feat for November to dig out of this climo hole to be above normal for the month.
  11. CFS2 Weeklies starting 11/11 Week 3 is classic example of beyond week 2 is for entertainment purposes only Week 1 Trending +EPO / +PNA / +NAO (same as last week) Week 2 +EPO / neutral PNA / +NAO (PNA trended negative, should have got rid of that " - " sign for week 3) Week 3 +EPO / +PNA / Neutral NAO (after outlooked for three weeks, torch gone) Week 4 -EPO / -PNA/ +NAO (same as last week) Week 5 -EPO / -PNA / +NAO (same as last week) Week 6 -EPO / -PNA / +NAO (just copy and paste week 4 into week 5 & 6). Week 1 verification: -7F (-5F).....................under Actual: -5F; Just take my guess and go with the opposite Temperatures (Previous Monday Outlook in parentheses) Week 1......-9F (-3F).....................over Week 2......+4F (+3F)...................over Week 3.......0F (+5F)...................under Week 4......+3F (+5F)..................under Week 5.......0F (+4F) (TTidbits).....over Week 6.......+3F (TTidbits)............under Pcpn (Previous Monday Outlook In Parentheses) Week 1........dry (dry) Week 2........wet (normal) Week 3........normal (dry) Week 4........dry (normal) Week 5........dry (normal) (TTidbits) Week 6........normal (TTidbits) Tropics Week 1 Gulf Week 2 Central Atlantic Week 3 Lesser Antilles
  12. Somebody didn't like the first day of snow in Vermont last week...
  13. Will make the 00z run on the 12th the last one for this one, precip starting too soon on the morning of the 12th. Sorry we have to keep more on top of this for this season.
  14. No changes in any of the OP models about rain changing to snow before ending. All of the SREF (oh you arw(s)) and GEFS members have measurable at PHL while the EPS has been pretty steady with 25 to 35 members (out of 51) showing measurable at PHL. Wednesday remains the cold day. I am not sure about the MOS guidance min temps for the suburbs on Wednesday morning. We get into the schemes of model biases, like the GFS thinks the city of PHL extends out beyond the city limits for 30 miles in all sirections and the Euro doesn't know the city of PHL is there. But at this point it looks like the wind will persist thru the night and that should lessen the differential between suburbs and city. Now Mark DeLisi gave me the 15kt NAM BL rule for decoupling and we are at 14kt at 6z. So Wednesday morning could be one of those mornings where locations which first decouple (Parsley's old house) will get in the teens while other places that don't (Paul) will struggle to get there. The other random element is we get a snowier day on Wednesday and it makes it through any afternoon sun. For VAY, I am going over. BTW ICON is the coldest global model for predicted 2M temps. (NAM is about the same, a couple more teens out Paul's and LNS's way). Now Wednesday night could be even colder for the suburbs as it will be a light wind night. Right now models are predicting cloudiness to increase as the night progresses. Here I would think MOS forecasts (only GFS at this point) have a shot at coming closer.
  15. The models are excellent with the thermal patterns within about 8 or 9 days (coincidental with the start of teleconnection skill). Gone are the days of cold/heat sneaking up on us as there will be too extreme runs shortly after day 8 or 9. In the warm season too hot, in the cold season too cold. The ensembles dont help with duration because their timing is off and it is easier for colder (warmer) solutions to carry excess weight and skew the averages/duration in the cold season/warm season especially if the NAO is positive (cold air doesn't get trapped). Friday's PHL high was 42F and exactly 6 days later the run of consecutive hours of sub 528 thicknesses on the GFS is now 18 hours.
  16. Thursday GEFS missed above normal 850mb temp anomalies now, turn below normal this evening, Barney peak afternoon of the 8th. New above normal on the 10th and 11th. Holding near normal on the 12th til Barney II surge later that day, peaking afternoon of the 13th. Remaining below normal with another weekend colder aftershock for 16th and 17th (same as before). A third after shock on the 19th before above normal anomalies arrive on the 20th. That is a net loss of two days over three days ago. Then above normal anomalies thru the end of its run on the 22nd. GEPS Barney I peaks evening of 8th vs afternoon of the 9th. Above normal 850mb temp anomalies on the 10th & 11th (N-S gradient) before a "warmer" Barney II peaks early on the 14th. Above normal anomalies arrive for the weekend, with below normal anomalies on 18th & 19th. Then either normal or above thru its end on the 22nd. Not very consistent vs Monday. EPS Barney I peaks evening of the 8th. Below normal 850mb temp anomalies continue until the 10th (then above, which wasn't there three days ago). Slow easing into Barney II on the 11th and 12th before going full boar and peaking afternoon of the 13th. Negative anomaly erosion, near (vs previously above) normal anomalies arrive on the 17th and also on 18th. Then near or above normal anomalies persist thru the end of its run on the 21st. We are warming from the east per se, so while the change has slipped a day vs three days ago, our change date remains the same. Today (00z Sunday run) GEFS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 17th. Weekend aftershock more north than on Thursday. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 18th (two days earlier) with near to above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th. The back end is up for conjecture, but the front end is reaching modeling skill. GEPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the 16th. Above normal anomalies arrive on the 17th (a day later) with above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th. EPS Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peak morning of the 13th. Remaining below normal thru the weekend (strongest of aftershock for next Friday/Saturday vs other models), then near to above normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on the 24th. While all the models outlook a Scandinavian ridge at the end of their outlook, the PV retreats to near Alaska and thwarts any ridge bridge from occurring. The Aleutian low is either too north (EC), not there (GGEM) or replaced by deep low and trof over Alaska and its gulf (GEFS). This morning's NAEFS starts to roll over to warm confidence 11/18-11/25 losing the bitter coldness of this upcoming week.
  17. Barney II. ICON is still the coldest with a 30F 18z temp wed afternoon at PHL.
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