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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. I am expecting a yawn soon. I suppose it could be outlooked (fwiw probably not much) worse. CFS2 Monthly ridge axes either in Rockies or just to the lee of. June looks warmest relative to normal while to me August looks coolest.
  2. Nearly halfway through not the CFS2's year:
  3. I am guessing you have a much bigger garden than me, I gave up after our first summer down here and went straight to raised beds.
  4. The first weekend of astronomical summer looks like typical summer weather. Not a washout by any means, but not a dry slam dunk like the past one. The frontal boundary predicted to come thru on the weekend with a predicted active warm front. Different Euro is faster than other medium range models with pcpn as most of them are holding off chances til Saturday night and a bunch of unknowns about Sunday. There could be a 90 in there, but at least it looks like an around 90 and not well into the 90s type chance at this point. Also the GFS should not be allowed to play with convection.
  5. As for the summer, the teleconnections look warm for the last week of June, but so far either the outlooks have been wrong, or the heat has underperformed, so whichever reason, here is hoping for another underperformance:
  6. The ENSO modeling update for Mid June is holding its own for an el nino for next winter. The dynamical model peak has increased from +0.8C in April to +1.0C this month. The four models that handled last winter the best (attached graph if you see otherwise) are all in nino territory except for the Aussie's. But if one corrects current conditions, even that model would bring weak el nino conditions. My nino skepticism is waning. Latest weekly 3.4 was up to +0.2C.
  7. With the start of meteorological winter and since the last thread reached 60 pages, we will start a new one. 0.03" overnight, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
  8. The U.S. Open

    After all of the lousy weather we have had, the weather could be the real upset winner in this tournament.
  9. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    .60" in Mt. Laurel.
  10. The 90s are back and better than ever

    Philly high was 93F, I am retiring again. Dropping dew points today (Tuesday), so it will feel better regardless. Philly looks like an 89F or 90F. Tom rooting for that 90 so he can get a circa 1900 heat wave.
  11. Other models joining the Euro on raining on Saturday. Sunday beginning to look like a similar set-up to today (Tuesday).
  12. CFS2 Monday Weeklies 500mb pattern shows a flat sern conus/southern plains ridge in weeks 2 & 3. We remain in the nw flow. Then weeks 4 thru 6 he says the heat ridge retros from the Southern Plains to the Western Rockies. This reads like a can kick of the can kick from every Monday so far this month. Temps Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses. Week 1...........+3F (+2F)...under Week 2...........0F (0F)........over (not exactly the same as the let's make a run at 100 GFS) Week 3...........+3F (+1F)...over Week 4............0F (+1F)...over Week 5...........0F (0F) (TTidbits)...over Week 6............+1F (TTidbits)...under Pcpn Week 1..........dry Week 2...........wet Week 3...........dry Week 4...........wet Week 5...........dry (TTidbits) Week 6...........wet (TTidbits) For some reason every week 5 & 6 are dry in the summer. Tropics........quiet past this week. Six day difference in current week 2 from where it was as nearly week 3:
  13. The U.S. Open

    It was ridiculous behavior. I don't watch much of the U.S. Tennis Open any longer, but I don't recall that much boarish behavior there. It seems they got alot of non-golf fans there or were selling really cheap beer.
  14. The 90s Club June 17th-19th. Tom Cheering It On.

    92 and a pleasantly surprising thunderstorm made it here.
  15. 11C + predicted 925MB temps gives both 5/3 & 5/4 a chance at reaching 90F. This will be assisted that it is not extremely wet going into this stretch and the delayed leaf-out because of what looks to be the coolest April since 1984. (Otherwise 2007). PHL itself might be thwarted by the Delaware River, but the more leafing deprived places farther northwest in our part of PA and parts of interior Delmarva and southern NJ are in the running. Congrats.
  16. The 90s are back and better than ever

    A pair of 10+ rules would give PHL a high of 91F-94F for today (Monday). That looks about right, probably would go with 93F myself. Tom pays me the same no matter how much I am off.
  17. To be fair, the previous version was worse, this is one area that the current version is better. It still doesnt stop it though from running a "little hot" especially in la la land.
  18. The 90s are back and better than ever

    There seems to be a 72hr to 84hr switch on the Euro for both pcpn and temp where it "gets it". Beyond that the op can have runs that are as bad if not worse than the GFS. The 97F and 96F for Tuesday has now been replaced by an 86F. That looks a bit low, but reality looks like it is going to be closer to the current than those former hot ones.
  19. The 90s are back and better than ever

    The predicted dew points fwiw did come down from where they once were for today. This is how one gets the convective jump and how it doesnt take long to get dry in summer.
  20. The 90s Club June 17th-19th. Tom Cheering It On.

    6/17/18 High Temps:
  21. The 90s Club June 17th-19th. Tom Cheering It On.

    Philly hit 90 on the dime also.