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Rainshadow

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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. Unbelievable what is happening in southeast Texas again.
  2. Lol. Plus the GFS saves it's 90s forecasts for October. Well Monday probably will be an upper 80s day. Euro day 9 predicted max temp 94F.
  3. 45F. Coolest morning since May 15th in Mount Laurel.
  4. I don't know what has got into it this month. It has become drier of late, but it is still September. That 95 prediction for 9/27, were it to come to fruition (ha) would tie a 1941 October heat wave day for the second hottest daily record high so late in the season.
  5. Euro: "Our Day 9 fiasco model run forecasts, not just for fantasy snow storms any longer!" That run was just a little bit inside.
  6. Tuesday & Wednesday of next week is definitely going toward the GFS thermally. But the OP EC has a predicted high of 95 on the other side of this for next Friday, so Tom has that going for him. It is a day 8, not a day 9 special by the EC. It one time had a day 9 predicted high of 95 for Wednesday the 25th, it is now 77.
  7. Updated as of 9/19: Coming Maybe???? 19th Hole Only Tom Charlie Al Jim Caruso MShaffer John Carl Shawn Tony Andy Chris B Paul Jim Eberwine Dean (NWS) Lee (NWS)
  8. No change in the theatre of the absurd. The EPS still has endless days of above normal max temps. It is slowly backing away from reaching 90F this Sunday and Monday. The upcoming Tuesday & Wednesday May end up being near normal, we are compromising with the GFS there. But, the current OP EC has a pair of 90s at the end of next week and not to be outdone, the GFS has given up on the snow idea in la la la la land and now has an October heat wave.
  9. Not that it matters (it really doesn't at all), I don't like 2002 regardless of QBO because it is such a poor enso fit. Conversely the map Tom just posted the current enso has a stronger nina thermal gradient given the rest of the Pacific is currently bath water which would leave 1995 in the mix (the strongest nina in the bunch).
  10. I heard 2013-14 thrown around as an analog over lunch yesterday and personally agree with you, this looks like a better fit. You are comparing an apple to an apple ssta (both Septembers), while the 2013-14 analog is comparing the current September to November 2013. The warm pool in September 2013 was west of the date line and moved into the great position ( or appeared to do so).
  11. Last night's EPS ends with 13 consecutive days of above normal max temps for PHL, a dozen in the 80s & a pair of 89s for Sunday and Monday.
  12. You are still going to be literally and figuratively sweating it out. EPS has a run of 13 consecutive days of above normal temps starting Friday, 12 in the 80s and a pair of 89s for Sunday & Monday. Lol GFS has a pair of la la la la la lands 89s predicted in early October.
  13. Canadian Weeklies starting 9/16 Temperature: Above normal weeks 1, 2 & 4. Near normal week 3. Precipitation: Wet (good luck with that) week 1. Near normal weeks 2 thru 4. Tropics (above normal pcpn) : Weeks 1 & 2 Central Atlantic (Humberto?????). Weeks 3 & 4 Latitude of Cuba.
  14. CFS2 Weeklies starting 9/16 I know next week i am not going to be able to do much, so instead of fits and starts, I will return to the regularly scheduled program with the September 30th output. Just briefly: Week 1 verification: +3F (was -2F), I am going wayyyyy over. Verification: Well wayyyyyyyyy over ended up being +4F. Current week 1 is +2F; tricky because of Sunday, but I will go under. I am also going under the +6F for the week of 9/23. CFS2 has above normal temps outlooked each and every week ending October 28th. Pcpn: it is very dry this week, wet next week and near normal weeks 3 thru 6. Tropics Week 1 is Humberto recurve, week 2 it is thru the Caribbean, weeks 3 & 4 GufMex and Mid Atlc recurve; weeks 5 & 6 it is Cuba & the Bahamas. Given the MJO, the tropics could remain active into the first half of October, at least the MJO in October won't hurt.
  15. Last night's Euro run gave up on the perpetual 90s for the middle of next week. Wednesday the 25th predicted high went from 95 to 81. Still 12 degrees higher than the GFS, 2 degrees lower than the EPS and 3 degrees higher than the GEFS which going full circle is 9 degrees higher than the OP GFS. The Euro has been 90s happy of late in the longer range, something to consider going forward prior to the CFP early next week. It had three forecasts of 90 for yesterday (high was 84) and two for today. Its current predicted high for today is 78F. However Sunday has remained fairly steady at this point with predicted highs by the OP EC between 86F and 92F and Monday outside of the initial 79F (when it had landfalling Humberto coming thru us) high has been 85F to 92F. The predicted GFS thermals of 17C/21C for Sunday put a 90F in play, at upper 80s a most likely outcome. Nothing new GFS faster with CFP on Monday, so no 90s for Tom on that run.
  16. Sometimes ignorance is bliss, I missed this GGEM doe-c-doe
  17. The OP GFS has been dispensing it's daily version of let's bring the 540 thickness to Tallahassee. While not as toasty as the EPS, the GEFS has been warmer and not corroborated the GFS. If the MJO is the driver and outlooked correctly, the last week of September is more of the GFS being the GFS in la la la land. GFS: It's never too early for any pattern change. Those MJO phases are still warmer than normal. Something like you mentioned would have legs once we roll into October.
  18. Pick any place in the CONUS or southern Canada and take some Dramamine to reduce the nausea and seasickness. Meanwhile steady Eddie EPS has above normal max temps continuing at PHL from the 20th thru the 30th with the greatest threat for a 90 (think the value is overdone) this Sunday and next Monday.
  19. This is kind of the same modeling M.O. sequence that occurred with Dorian. First in the end of the deterministic/start of la la land the models go too gun-ho on ridging (Euro Day 9 landfall in Ocean City, MD) and bring tropical system too far west. Then they go nevermind, what ridge??? and adjust too far to the east. Then they walk it back somewhat, but nowhere near the original PED induced ridge solution.
  20. Great post Charlie, not great in terms of the recent shift, it puts it in the proper perspective.
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