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Rainshadow

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Everything posted by Rainshadow

  1. The NAM is an equal opportunity buzz kill.
  2. Day 7 (not 9) OP EC has light snow falling across the area.
  3. Canadian weeklies have warm confidences all weeks too, except (fwiw, probably not much) lower confidence as the weeks progress.
  4. Well (unless it changes between now and Saturday) we never had a goose egg in February.
  5. There is suppose to be a vote on it. I thought Tom said March 15th. BTW I never even bothered to look up a thunderstorm weenie avatar for Tom.
  6. If the past two Barney performances on mins are any indication, PHL's bottom with this Barney will be 24F.
  7. I guess better late than never. Now that winter is over, the European family is getting hot with the qpf forecasts. In a narrow victory, the EPS just beat the OP EC. The GFS which was all over the place with its qpf, came in last. The OP EC had a .11" differential between wettest and driest forecasts. The OP GFS had .74". I didn't so a snow table, because it was just the NAM. It had rain changing to snow before ending (.4") on the 00z/26th run (about 30 hours before). So there is no stopping the NAM from NAMMing someone even in a snowless winter.
  8. Pocono Summit has 0.3" of snow thru 7 am as rain has changed to snow.
  9. Yeah, with shorter wavelengths, the confidence is down across the board in our backyard for every phase.
  10. Until it does, at least theoretically speaking, colder shots/patterns "should" be favored.
  11. Just to be safe we should also include d6, d5, d4, d3 ,d2 and d1.5. Anytime you want a GFS tirade, just let me know.
  12. A land based tracking low and all of a sudden the NAM offers competition. An excellent job by the OP EC to win a tough a=battle for first place. Well the SREFs are normally done in by one of their physics families downing too much expresso. This event it was the arw(s) and hence last place.
  13. If you want me to, I can go into a GFS rant. That worked for North Carolina....
  14. It is instability aloft above the marine puke. Predicted total totals are in the upper 40s which is adequate for thunder. This is the SREF predicted MUCAPE:
  15. There was not a cold one in the bunch for us. Of course Alaska was cold, so that just left the GEM NEMO to get that state right.
  16. I just think the goal posts are moving and it is harder to get a handle as to what truly works analog-wise because the sample sizes are getting smaller. To be fair the climate models seem to default to warmer than normal. By 1981-2010 standards most winters are becoming warmer than normal, so I don't know what they are telling us other than "climo".
  17. Open Sarcasm. Just another typical 21st Century February Day: Close sarcasm. ...Mid-Atlantic region... A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop by around mid-afternoon across parts of western VA and WV, shifting eastward and northeastward across portions of the Blue Ridge/ Shenandoah region and southern PA, with additional convection potentially forming over central VA. Given the intense ambient wind fields and strong deep shear, damaging wind -- including isolated severe gusts -- may penetrate to the surface. Some of the convection responsible for such gusts may be too shallow to produce lightning. As the trough aloft approaches, and the low-level cyclone tightens/deepens, deep-layer forcing and low-level mass response will intensify, supporting convective organization even in very weakly unstable conditions. Low/middle-level lapse rates should steepen just enough -- from a combination of subtle heating and warm advection in the low level with the leading part of trough-related cooling aloft -- to produce neutrally to convectively unstable conditions. MUCAPE in the 100-500 J/kg range is possible over the outlook area -- generally weaker with northwestward extent as low-level theta-e lessens. Still, given the intense winds in mid/upper levels and fast convective motion, sporadic strong to locally severe gusts may occur, and even gusts below defined (50-kt) severe limits will be capable of damaging trees. If 12Z or later guidance and mesoscale trends increase confidence in a particular channel or swath of convective-wind potential within this area, a 15%/slight-risk upgrade could be needed in one of the day-shift updates.
  18. BTW while we are at it, because warm winter outlooks don't result in social media home page hits, and I know they default warm or EC alot, but you can't fault CPC's outlook for this winter.
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