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Rainshadow last won the day on March 17

Rainshadow had the most liked content!

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    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. I know it may not work this way, but for now, can you cut off (if necessary) pcpn in two pieces going forward with the 12z run today (18th), that with wave 1 up to 00z/Wed and anything else with wave 2 after that. If I have to, I'll combine them into one if there is less of a pcpn gap.
  2. GGEM only model that has this type of solution to that extent. Any model (and it & GFS compete in the race to the bottom in this regard) that forecasts 48 to 54 hours of non-stop measurable pcpn, I just and find one based on planet Earth. That being said, the idea of less with the first and possibly (probably?) more with the second (which every other model seems to have) gained traction last night. Have to see if this trend continues today. Fairly large shift in the EPS within 120 hours, but then again this has been the winter of big shifts and big shifts late in the game.
  3. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    High so far today 49F, warmest day since March 6th whether or not we hit 50 (which was the last day we did).
  4. Interesting. PSU e-wall maintenance is getting weaker (they lost the more interesting EC within 168 hrs), I hope UQAM doesnt go that way. Gets complicated to show on multiple graphs, WEFS mean up to around 6" (10:1). Interesting part is other than p1, the ones that hit us harder with the second wave (which current gfs doesn't have) are the ones that are either weak or totally miss us with wave 1. The inference the stronger wave 1 is, less of a chance of an impact to PHL for wave 2.
  5. This. Probably be a 30 to 60 mile wide area of headline/plowable snow. In a cold season with last minute adjustments, this more and more is looking like we won't know what is going to happen until the last minute type event. At least at first NAM glance wrt ptype, sleet is not looking like a big issue.
  6. You wonder if the source point changed the coding. This is a long down time.
  7. I think he is horsing around after seeing we were NAMMED.
  8. Vs the 06z run, it is (predicted snow coverage) the same exact latitude, vs 00z run it is farther south.
  9. I'll show you arw(s) too to cheer you up. Thrice as snowy as the nmbs.
  10. This has 100% verification on cheering me up. The former has about a 0.5% chance.
  11. All the EPS knows how to do is to have straggling or faster member cold shots (or warm shots) skew the average to be perpetually in the same thermal direction. Sorry not buying it. Didn't work in December and early February, not going to work in Smarch or Sapril either. 00z GEFS (and GEPs also similar pattern) has above normal heights from late on the 25th through late on the 30th and hear normal heights into early April at the end of its run. I am hugging this 500mb outlook (unless it disappears. ) 00z NAEFS 3/25-4/1 is indifferent but highest confidence of cold is in Montana and higherst confidence of warmth in Louisiana. Near normal with rising climo averages will feel alot better regardless.
  12. Eh that's near normal and after this week it will feel above normal.
  13. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Hello Smarch