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Rainshadow

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Rainshadow last won the day on September 14

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  • Location:
    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. Saying its going to be colder and snowier (I know its nationally) is not going to be much of a stretch for us. Who would have thought that saying '16-17 was going to be colder than '15-16 became as close as it was because of February.
  2. The Canadian represents the option 2 solution by Tom, it is faster and thus gets closer to us (some of its ensemble members much closer) before the ridge has a chance to be eroded. Notice the difference in "forward speed", some directionality involved too vs the other two ensemble means:
  3. With Maria still moving slowly northwest, the GFS & HWRF is now developing a right of track bias. The Euro remains pretty tight and close while the Outer Banks loving GGEM does have a recent left of track bias as has the Nogaps. Tom's option 3 seems to be the non ggem consensus model solution this morning, Maria is slowing so much that the approaching front/trof middle of next week is predicted to erode the h5 ridge over the Mid Atlantic and kick Maria stage right.
  4. GEFs has a couple of loopy members near the North Carolina coast, but the rest are close to the OP.
  5. Yeah not a good day to golf in Williamsburg.
  6. Well I am holding off shore point tee time for middle of next week to make sure the punter gets a good snap.
  7. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    You would have to find TomL for that, he hasnt gone to any outings of late.
  8. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    We went to Charlie's favorite(?) NJ course yesterday, Town & Country and this course still owns me. We both hit our tee shots into the cabbage on 18 and called it a day. It was kind of funny last Thursday at Mercer Oaks was our office scramble and I think I hit 12 or 13 of 14 fairways. Yesterday I was lucky if I hit three. After my approach shot on 10 was wet I told Jo I am so stinky that I was an insult to stinky golfers. The only highlight of the day was I took the tee shot from TPC Sawgrass pro distance (about 140 yards) on 13 and it was dry.
  9. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Al, (I was the short term forecaster that day and Larry the long term, but Larry did not go off on his own in the process and as senior forecaster I was ultimately responsible for all products issued). FXUS61 KPHI 261952 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON HURRICANE SANDY, WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER AT THAT TIME. PLEASE FOLLOW THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... OFF THE 12Z INITIALIZATION THE GFS WAS BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMM AND ECMWF AT 500MB, THIS INCLUDES ALL FOUR FACETS, THE TROFING IN THE CENTRAL CONUS, SANDY ITSELF, THE REX RIDGING OVER OUR CWA IN PARTICULAR AND THE MASS FIELDS IN NORTHEAST CANADA. IN GENERAL THERE WAS A NORTHWARD SHIFT WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUNS, BUT THE DIURNAL TREND OTHER THAN YESTERDAY HAS BEEN FOR A MORE NORTHWARD CAPTURE ON THE DAY RUNS VS THE NIGHT RUNS. A SIGN OF THAT REX RIDGE HOLDING IS THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK. NO DIFFERENCE FOR TONIGHT WHERE PERSISTENCE IS BECOMING THE WAY TO GO. WE EXPANDED THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS AGAIN. WE BELIEVE THE CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT FOG FROM BEING ENOUGH OF A PUBLIC ISSUE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WE TENDED TO GO WITH THE HIGHER OF THE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. THE FIRST CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY IF VISIBLE WILL BE ARRIVING TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE TELLING THAT THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EITHER THE THIRD TIME WILL BE THE CHARM, OR THE FACT THAT THE REX RIDGING SHOULD WEAKEN WE BELIEVE SHOULD FINALLY DO THE TRICK. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND ALSO THE FIRST POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY COULD ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON. A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND WAS USED FOR THE MAX TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ALL EYES CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED ON HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS TRACK AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST AND THEN MAKES A NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT AT SOME POINT AND IMPACTS OUR AREA. WHILE THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF SANDY. THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS MADE A NEWD SHIFT THIS CYCLE AS HAS THE GFS. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS MDL TREND WILL CONTINUE. NEVERTHELESS, THE ECMWF IS STILL ONE OF THE MOST SRN TRACK OF THE GLOBAL MDLS. IT NOW HAS A LANDFALL OVER SRN NJ. THE GFS BRING SANDY TO A POINT JUST E OF LI/ S OF SRN NEW ENG THEN MOVES IT WWD AND SWWD TO SRN NYS AND NRN NJ. THE CMC BRING THE LANDFALL POINT NR NYC. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SRN TRACK, WITH LANDFALL OVER THE LWR DELMARVA. THE LATEST RUNS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM AS WELL. BOTH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH, IN ADDITION TO THE SPEED WILL ULTIMATELY IMPACT THE WIND AND PRECIP FORECAST. SO, THOSE ASPECTS REMAIN WITH BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, WE CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR THE REGION, WITH HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS. WITH THIS FCST, HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SLOW SPEED OF THE STORM WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW CHC POPS OVER THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW ASSOCD WITH WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF SANDY FILLS AND MOVES OVER NEW ENG. PRECIP CHCS WILL BEGIN ACRS THE S SAT NIGHT AND PICK UP ACRS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM S TO N ON SUNDAY AS WELL. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE 18Z TAFS FEATURED A HIGH LEVEL MVFR CIG TO LOW LEVEL VFR CIG CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT EAST WINDS. CLEARING IS TRYING TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WE EXPECT THIS TO HIT THE WALL AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND START REVERSING. THEN THIS EVENING, WE WILL REPEAT THE LOWERING OF THE CIGS AGAIN AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. WE WILL FORECAST MVFR CIGS AND THEN TAKE THE TERMINALS TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR LEVELS TOWARD MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS, WE ONCE AGAIN ARE EXPECTING THE CIG TO HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT THAN VSBYS WHICH WE ARE ONLY TAKING DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER FROM THE EAST. WE WILL TRY AGAIN TO IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR CIG LEVELS AS SATURDAY MORNING CONTINUES AND THEN IN THE KPHL TAF WE WILL BRING THAT TERMINAL UP TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE. SUNDAY-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WIND AS HURRICANE SANDY IMPACTS OUR REGION. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WERE KEPT IN PLACE AS IS ON THE OCEAN. SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ALL OF OUR OCEANIC WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LIKELY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TOO BY THE END OF THE AFTERNOON. NO MATTER THE OUTCOME, CONDITIONS ARE ONLY GOING TO DETERIORATE, SO PLEASE TAKE THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY MARINE RELATED PREPARATIONS. OUTLOOK... WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS HURRICANE SANDY APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL CLOSE TO OR OVER OUR AREA. HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY FOR SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDD FURTHER N ON SUNDAY. THEN BASED ON THE CURRENT NHC TRACK, EXPECT THE WORST CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM SANDY APPROACHES THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AFFECT OUR AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE TIDAL SURGE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THE FULL MOON IS NEXT MONDAY, SO ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING HIGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FULL MOON AND HIGH TIDAL SURGE FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INCREASE COASTAL FLOODING PROBABILITIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455. GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-453>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
  10. Shawn Paul Garrison (2) Carl Tom Tony Charlie Al Lee Sarah Scott + 7 Friends (will know for sure by end of month if this sticks) Gus
  11. Hurricane Scwartz is no longer the Chief

    I am surprised Glenn lasted as long as he did in that position. Speaks volume about his forecast accuracy.
  12. You must really hate our fig trees.
  13. The NASA outlook in the NMME would be considered a torch by outlooks that are torch.
  14. So far the operational/hurricane models have owned Maria's tracks and liking the slight eastward trend on some of them:
  15. I have seen theirs and CPC's outlook normally pretty close. As to what goes into it: Flipping thru the 3 month sequence looks like they are outlooking a cold Feb. Raw NMME right now is "slightly" different...
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