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Rainshadow last won the day on November 10

Rainshadow had the most liked content!

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  • Location:
    Mount Laurel, NJ
  • Interests
    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. This was not a surprise from the diagnosis the vet gave us, but this afternoon we said good-by to Molly. The sun broke out just as it set and I will take that as she is in a better place waiting for us, but for now I truly hate this month.
  2. I half hear you. Climo in the regard of ratios should definitely be given consideration. Warm ground in fall, listless snow rates during a daytime hour event make those 10:1 ratio maps untenable. But on the flip side you have to give some consideration to the air masses involved. This one behind the front is 2 to 3 SD below average at 850mb, it is quite the baroclinic zone. Yeah, those beyond day 4 (or day 9 for the Euro) near November breaking snow storms have to be approached with a skeptical eye, but the idea of getting a mulch top coating was not that off the beaten path, which in reality if dropping model ratios to 5:1 inside of 84hrs was close to what they were forecasting.
  3. A perfect 1 for 1 with foot in mouth. No measure north and west, sorry Poconos don't count for me. At least the likely part along I95 gave me a 30% out, woo-hoo. Not saying anything about coastal areas was my smartest move. As for the qpf itself, barring something else PHL had 0.10". 36 different evaluated qpf forecasts for this event, 35 will be too wet. The last NAM run (00z/12th) was the only too dry run. The EPS will be among the wettest offenders. Eyeballing the numbers it looks like this may end up being close to a 40% of predicted qpf event.
  4. 35 degrees and snowing lightly in Mount Laurel.
  5. Good thing I wasn't called the head honcho: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/snow-forecast-models-european-american-gfs-philadelphia-20191112.html
  6. It has to be a right combination. While warmer than normal, their temps are equal or cooler than the ocean surface. So too much mixing/easterly wind components may drop the departures. Either way, the warmest anomalies of sub surface waters are now in the eastern Pacific.
  7. Then a three week lag on impacts for us once the SSW begins, so that puts us in January.
  8. Nice post said the figs never. It does make sense given you probably get impacts from the convection extending both northward and upward. Here are those recent year MJO(s): At least the GEFS has the GGEM going along with this. Don't know if that is a good or bad thing. I would guess the EPS would be more subdued with wave 1 only because it is taking the MJO into the COD.
  9. Pretty much snowing throughout the Poconos if Lehighton has snow.
  10. This is one pattern progression that appeared beyond week 2 and held its own. Granted we pretty much exhausted the -epo cold air with this second shot anyway. I know the enso is not showing it, but this month has acted like a nino November, there are a number of nino Novembers that have been cold (even dud winter 1997-98). It'd be a feat for November to dig out of this climo hole to be above normal for the month.
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