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Rainshadow

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Rainshadow last won the day on November 8

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    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. It may be its only win of the season, they will take it.
  2. All the models overall were too dry and the last place Euro was the driest of them all. NEW2018-9qpf.xlsx
  3. Yeah they must. Right or wrong good for them for treating sleet as sleet and not a snow/liquid equiv ratio. I just looked at Kuchera SREF, 15z version has 0.4" PHL.
  4. GEFS ensemble mean on EMC site have been less than 0.5".
  5. Well what a surprise the FV3 GFS is already sh^%%ing the bed in the south. The forecast maps of accumulating snow overnight. Meanwhile in South Carolina..... I know there is a ptype difference between the EC & this version of the GFS being snowier up here vs the sleetier look of other models (which way I am leaning). At least the Euro was not as snowy during the next six hours nor did it have any snow in the Carolinas. There is some sleet in that zr area also in KY. .
  6. Rainshadow

    2018-2019 Snowfall Contests

    Maybe I can finally give away the sleeve of golf balls that Parsley always wins and doesn't want.
  7. There have been a ton of gulf coast states lows already, I don't know if you want to go as far as to call them Miller A(s), but it does bode well for wintry precip this winter.
  8. NAM is typically slow so I don't know kind of a leap for one run unless it is corroborated at 18z.
  9. Just looking at the output it looks like the EMC web site treats sleet as sleet when it comes to accumulations. I wouldn't feel comfortable with a zero for PHL for tomorrow and especially AVP on the front end. It still looks pretty nasty tomorrow north and west with a prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain. Sleet wont melt on roadways no matter how warm it has been (March 2007 iirc). Not saying it wont snow at all, but it will be a struggle to maintain it as a ptype.
  10. Last cold season the OP Euro was the 2nd worst (out of 6) models/ensembles with snowfall forecasts for PHL. That is pretty bad considering its own EPS was the best.
  11. Or thicknesses greater than 546. BTW I will probably go down in flames again for posting this (as forecasting weather is a very humbling experience), but I think the ptype forecasts by the 3km nam and hrdps are going to own the other models, resolutions with this one.
  12. Unfortunately I can't do Kuchera on the GFS & NAM. It is available, but I have to look at it before the next sounding run starts which is not feasible for me. Under the circumstance to keep the models method the same, I would say just go with a standard 10:1 for the season. SREF otoh is Kuchera, no way around that.
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