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Rainshadow last won the day on September 19

Rainshadow had the most liked content!

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    Mount Laurel, NJ
  • Interests
    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Paul, Thanks!
  2. I admit I am mixing medians here as the snow coverage goes back to satellite data from the late 1960s (about 50 years), while the snowfall & temp is using the average for the last 31 years. Anyway this is snowfall for PHL:
  3. I am on my way out & I'll add snow. But recently (because it is always above the long term median) above normal October snow extent in Eurasia has had no correlation with our winter temperatures. This is for PHL and I used the 30 year moving average instead of present climo (which would probably have made it worse) normals. Edit, whoops just realized this was a 31 year average.
  4. Below normal chances reaches east to the I295/NJ Turnpike Corridor
  5. If there is such a thing as climo anymore, it does fit the bill of weaker el ninos and January snows. But what is up with the March will rock, make that rot, outlook?
  6. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Paul, Is this for your site or do you do an averaging of other long standing climo sites to come up with a county average? BTW PHL is up to 30 ninety degree days or higher for this year.
  7. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Keeping with the theme of higher mins, we are currently at #1, but pretty sure we wont break that this year. Current record is 66.7F in 1881.
  8. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    If it is any consolation, as far as average temperatures go, it will not be the warmest September on record in PHL. (2018 to date thru 9/19).
  9. Yup. You still need the air part to work in sync with the water. All that warm water doesn't do anything if the trades do not weaken. Interesting lag.
  10. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Oh I would agree with that. Looks like Mitch didn't escape the PHL heat island affect moving to BGM.
  11. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    It has to be quite high. Just looking at Carl's table of how many top 10s vs bottom 10s monthlies PHL has had since 1990, it is a sea of red with what three blues?
  12. The latest dynamical/statistical models cooled by about 0.1C from last month's outlook for this nino. But, they are fitting the curve much better than they did last season up to this point. BTW looking at a similar lead time (3 months) for winter, the one dynamical model that pegged the JJA enso value on the nose three months in advance was the JMA.
  13. It has been awhile since I did this (Thanks Florence). Anyway getting back on track and to piggy back on Tom's post. 00z/19th GEFS Above normal 500mb heights (what else?) return on the 20th as the Southeast CONUS ridge slides offshore and is outlooked to remain there for a while. We have a Gulf of Alaska ridge / Central Conus Trof / East Coast Ridge, so there will be some cooler air arriving in NOAM. Back in the day this was a stable autumn climo pattern because of the ocean waters still relatively warm. Anyway this pattern is outlooked to progress slight east toward the end of the month with the ridge more centered on the west coast and trof in Great Lakes. After the 29th we never get below normal heights, but above normal 500mb heights are gone. From the 29th til the end (October 4th), the WAR flexes every once in a while edging above normal heights back into our area. As September ends: