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Rainshadow

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Rainshadow last won the day on December 22 2019

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    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. These are the model snowfall projections for PHL. 12z euro today is my eyeball, I await Tom's eyeballing for official.
  2. Being the eternal optimist I think you make the low end of my 1-3/2-4 range because this cold night is going to do a world of good for sticking. Over on PHL at 0.3". Yeah there is the qpf issue and also the sleet issue, so my high end of 3 or 4 in the far n/nw parts of Philly metro may be wishful snowcasting.
  3. Yeah lots of wind, probably lots of riming too. I take whatever falls.
  4. Tom vehemently approves of that outcome. It looks like runs are pivoting from a n/s gradient to more of a wsw/ene gradient. At any rate was talking with former colleague at Wegmans today about dollar cost averaging all runs. Looks like it was the same fgen/waa band as the 3km NAM has had. Still say this is a silk purse outcome from a sow’s ear track no matter what happens.
  5. 00z Ensemble Mean Snowfall for PHL. Most recent run first (17th). EPS (out of 51) measurable: 51, 50, 49, 51, 51, 47, 34 2" or more: 7, 4, 13, 32, 39, 19, 19 6" or more: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 5 10" or more: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1 GEFS (out of 21) measurable: 21, 18, 21, 21, 21, 20, 18 2" or more: 3, 4, 14, 17, 20, 14, 4 6" or more: 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 0, 1 10" or more: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 0 GEPS (out of 21) measurable: 17, 10, 20, 20, 21, 16, 19 2" or more: 2, 0, 1, 6, 10, 3, 8 6" or more: 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, 0, 5 10" or more: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 Well something different is going to have to give on here. Dr. No has measurable for PHL. All of the GEPS members do not.
  6. It is also holding steady in showing one of the snowiest solutions of all of its ensemble members. I can't do PTW on here. It is the flip at AVP where it is one of the least snowiest that is how it gets solutions like more snow at ILG than MPO. Not that they needed my stamp of approval, but I thought the Mount Holly snowfall map was pretty good. The I95/I295 corridor is going to be bearish, I still take the over on 0.3" for PHL.
  7. I checked the temp cross section for PTW and it does show a slight left tilt to the warm core. It gets above freezing through 800mb after 00z, granted most of the precip is over by then. The pivotal euro forecast soundings may be too crude. In this instance they may not be bad, but I wouldn't trust them with warm core alofts.
  8. From an event perspective, yeah I was telling co workers last Saturday. For details, I’d go to a different supermarket.
  9. I am going to be optimistic for ever and ever.... Anyway first time at onset one does not have to be concerned about ptype or white rain. Unless this 🐶 holds off til 6 pm and model earlier timing has been holding. Transition to sleet (have to think NAM is onto something) will tell the final outcome in our area. But for now given the antecedent conditions gotta think the snow will start sticking instantaneously for once.
  10. I would take the over for PHL. 1-3, 2-4 your way. The eternal optimist. One of these times C-2 has to be too low.
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