00z March 11th GEFS
Strongly above normal 500mb heights peak March 12th-16th. Below normal 500mb heights try try try to get into the area on the 17th, but struggle to cover the entire area until the 20th. BIAS corrected GEFS PNA index peaks on the 18th, but remains somewhat positive thrut as does a +NAO. EPO returns to a more neutral index look, but I would say looks more positive than negative on the forecast maps. Below normal heights exit on the 23rd (same as two days ago) as flattening of PNA ridge continues. A tendency toward above normal heights concludes this run on the 25th & 26th as does a (ha) hint of a -NAO east.
NAEFS for the week of 3/19-3/26 has our area in high confidence of near normal temperatures. This means either the 17th and/or 18th should be cold, or it was just a warmish modeling jump for a day (it looks like that). Either way the 500mb tendency looks like a cold start/warmer finish.
MJO is in Phase 4. Tossing the retrograding WH outlooks and assuming a phase 5 is coming, this corroborates the PNA ridge for next week. Phases 6 & 7 are warmer. So either entering the COD (doubt it very much) or exiting phase 5 support the end of the current GEFS/GEPS/EPS, slightly higher confidence than average for that forecast time range. Warm week/cold week/warm week if all goes accoring to plan.
00z March 14th GEFS
Strongly above normal 500mb heights go bye bye on the 16th and get replaced by below normal until the 20th. Same as three days ago. Still positive PNA with an anomalous trof over the SERN Conus and outlooked offshore cyclogenesis as spring arrives. As PNA is outlook to flatten, above normal heights return on the 23rd. (+EPO/+NAO). This overall pattern holds to the end of its run through the 29th. There is either west coast or eastern pacific troffing and any hint of -NAO is -NAO east.
NAEFS for the week of 3/22-3/29 has confidence of above normal temperatures in our area. This rolled over yesterday after losing cold I am guessing from the 20th & 21st.
MJO is in Phase 5 (or 4?). It still looks pretty active and outlooks still have it going into the COD. But at least now they have it progressing vs the silly loop de loops into phase 3 they once had. Mike's site outlopok for the last week of March are warm MJO phases for our area for March. So call me confident about a warmer than average send off to this Smarch.
00z March 18th GEFS
Positive PNA below normal 500mb heights last til the 20th and then come back with offshore/east development on the 21st thru 23rd. As the +PNA ridging moves eastward across NOAM, above normal heights return on the 24th (one day later than the outlook from four days ago). A negative NAO is outlooked to develop and heights return to near normal on the 26th. the long run of above normal heights gone. On the 26th there is the -NAO E and neutral looking PNA (maybe index positive) with trofs across the southwest & southeast CONUS. Latter with latest day 9 Euro snow. As that SE trof exits, above normal heights briefly return on the 29th & 30th, +NAO at that point. Til the end of its run on April 2nd, we drift in/out of normal and slightly below normal heights with mainly a zonal flow.
NAEFS for the week of 3/26-4/2 has pretty high confidence of above normal temperatures. So much for the GEFS thoughts. EPS does not look that cold either.
MJO is in Phase 5. COD location I am guessing because of 200mb winds, but convection still looks rather robust and that is what drives the latent heat release. So warmer phases on the way until maybe a real COD after phase 6 or 7. A warmer than average send off to Smarch still looks there.
00z March 20th GEFS
Brief above normal 500mb heights until neg tilt trof (below) on the 21st. As the +PNA ridging moves eastward across NOAM, above normal heights return on the 24th (same as two days ago). A negative NAO E develops and heights return to near normal sooner on the 25th. Rockies PNA ridging/ -NAO E bring below normal heights to our period of interest late on the 25th. Breakdown of the -NAO E/ PNA ridge brings above normal heights back on the 28th. This persists to the end of March. As Sapril starts a series of Pacific trofs bring an el nino look with below normal heights across the southern & southwestern conus. Our heights return to above normal on April 3rd & 4th (end of run).
NAEFS for the week of 3/28-4/4 is weakly confidence of above normal temperatures.
MJO as far as convection goes is in Phase 5 almost phase 6. The amount of convection and the 850mb & esp 200mb push into the COD. The models were right (I was wrong) about it weakening. Although convection is not nil and any convective forcing would assist in warmer phase solutions going forward. I like the split of different MJO factors as convection still drives the ridging bus. Granted if there is not support aloft, it won't be easy going forward.