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Rainshadow

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Rainshadow last won the day on January 2

Rainshadow had the most liked content!

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    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. I don't see why not. MJO in phases 4-6 should get muted by the SSW and then be in colder phases after the SSW effects become less consistent. Yeah the warmest waters right now are in 1,2 which is a negative, but that area is so volatile there is no way to predict it well or on the flip expect the status quo to continue.
  2. Lol, when a high becomes a low and a trof becomes a high...
  3. Speaking of beyond day 8, just looking at day ten 500mb ensemble means and > of the cold, it's EPS coldest, GEPS between, GEFS warmest.
  4. The MJO is actually pretty strong. It is outside of the COD. Question is will the strat effects be > MJO or maybe better put how much will the strat effects mute the warmer phases of the MJO coming up?
  5. As far as cold goes, my white flag is up for the next three weeks. Other than a one day warm up here/there, I am viewing any longer warm ups with even more of a skeptical eye than usual beyond day 8.
  6. I thought it was Ice Cold Only; Nice! Joking aside, I thought its qpf didnt go into the rice paddys as much as the GFS/GEFS did, but I cant find any documentation on biases or verification.
  7. Tell it to stop. Anyway I did about a 30 minute internet search to try to find any bias/verification for the ICON. What I found it is a relatively new model, started in January 2015 and replaced the old GME(?). In comparison to that it is better, but I couldn't find any comments/verification on the current model.
  8. I will bump this if necessary to keep it near the top.
  9. The current thread is over 50 pages and don't want to split early next week out. Please put any threats starting in February in this thread. Thank-you!
  10. A couple of GFS NAM outlooks as 10mb winds are turning positive again. looks like on the Euro we have the criss-cross of 10 & 30mb wind speeds, with a bottom right around 0kts going on right now. Last night's Euro consolidates the SPV somewhere around day 7 or 8. The stronger split did go over Hudson Bay.
  11. I put these graphs in the shutdown thread also. Regardless of the "cause" the GFS's skill is down more than other models and has sunk below the Canadian by day 6. All model skills are down vs last January (I know, not month to month) and other than the Canadian (which has been better lately) down vs November. How about those November 15th scores! The least drop off has been Solomon, while even the Euro with some of its head scratching beyond day 4 solutions is down vs last year/November. Models used to do better in nino winters, but I guess this nino winter is not like any other nino winter.
  12. I don't know how much snow the white flag symbolizes, but if we are talking about any snow it is too early.
  13. Rainshadow

    The Government Shutdown Is Degrading The GFS

    I guess there are lies, dam lies & statistics. All models are down vs this time last year (I know not a true month to month comparison) & since November. I honestly don't know if its statistically significant or not. Either way the GFS is down more than others no matter the cause. What happened on November 15th?
  14. You would need it to go bonkers. The predicted 850mb 0C isotherm is more than 300 miles north of the northern extent of the serious precip shield @144hrs with the surface high already in the Canadian Maritimes.
  15. Rainshadow

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    There were traces if that helps. It was a strong el nino winter. Odd part it wasn't a very warm winter. From what I recall there weren't many threats.
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