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Rainshadow

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Rainshadow last won the day on November 11

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About Rainshadow

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  • Location:
    Mount Laurel, NJ
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    Golf and gardening and temperatures between 32F & 70F.

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  1. Since 1950 the coldest winter following a warm October and November was 1985-86 @ 32.7F. 2010-11 was second @ 33.1F. The coldest winter following a warm October and average November (we are going there) was 2013-14 @ 33.0F.
  2. A little out of place, but I wanted to make sure you saw it, since 1950 the coldest winter following a warm October and November was 1985-86 @ 32.7F. 2010-11 was second @ 33.1F. The coldest winter following a warm October and average November (we are going there) was 2013-14 @ 33.0F.
  3. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    I do see the little home underneath it & clicking that works for me:
  4. If this has legs, at least you wont be regurgitating Pacific Air:
  5. Looks like the more often faster recovery to a milder pattern by the EPS is heading toward being right vs the we are cold all of the time (and we mean all of the time) in LLLV GEFs. Looks like a warm October / normal November combo.
  6. What are your thoughts on next Tuesday of the GFS forecasting 14C at 925mb with some very decent mixing winds and a high of 54F? My thoughts, the gang is back!
  7. Rain nearly over at PHL with .08" falling so far, so it looks like typical model biases worked here. Can GGEM started its typical eggnoging early > .80" in original post nearly centered on Delaware Valley was all wet. Euro was right at being one of the first to show precipitation, but its westward bias of heavier precipitation rang true. NAM for once was middle of the road between the Euro & GFS (which was typical too far southeast originally only to become wrongly too wet as we came closer to this event. Two wrongs dont make a right). Ironically by posting more 0.00s vs .4s like the Euro the GFS may win the most accurate qpf model for this event. I have too much love for the German model, but like the idea that its more conservative qpf overall looks like its going to be ok. UKMET & JMA were too wet, a bias they both have. The German model may be the only model in our area that does not have a prevailing wet bias.
  8. Caveat of verifying a forecast with a forecast. It is two runs in a row now (a third one today of similar ilk I'd say that map's type of cold has left the building), but this may lower the Euro's beyond day 7 calls for Tombo type cold percentages to .333. This falls into the lap of the Euro bias of overphasing or too quickly phasing at longer forecast periods. First map was a near triple phase with a low emerging from the Gulf.
  9. Ugh. EST & Pre 5 PM Sunsets Are Back.

    Its not the length of daylight, its the time of sunset. Solar Noon is rarely exactly at Noon. During December it starts before noon, but is in the process of coming closer to our clock Noon. That is why the earliest sunset is around December 8th, but sunrises are later until early January. This is for Philadelphia: Link: https://sunrise-sunset.org/us/philadelphia-pa/2017/12
  10. Yes, whether it rains or not, pretty much done by 12z in Philly metro area.
  11. This is getting closer to an I295 corridor back edge consensus. The ggem lost most of the PA precipitation, while the GFS acknowledged that having a jet in PA might get precip farther west.
  12. True. The Euro ensembles weeks 3 or 4 in particular rarely deviate much from + / - 1 so they lose in warm years for not recognizing warm weeks either. This also could be a case that the weeklies don't know Philly is an urban site.
  13. Week just concluded in PHL average -1F and both the Euro & CFS2 returned to their normal bias and were too cold, this time in a cold week. Running total for year:
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