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  1. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    A true Irishman never found a drink he didn't like.
  2. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Man did I pick the right time to turn on the tournament. Everyone's excuse on Monday, "Dog ate my bracket!"
  3. Obviously, most on here out on this one, but NJ folks saw an uptick on GFS, seems? Any westward shift would help our chances, expecting 1-2, would enjoy 3-4.
  4. Nice to be under a WWA, however it plays out. A few inches on top of my solidified snow pack and some cool days upcoming would give me a week, maybe week+ with snow cover in March. Can't complain....
  5. All in good fun! Thanks for the mulligan, and looking forward to the next one. Especially if it nets me another 8 inches of snow!
  6. Had thundersnow here, and the worst commute ever, pretty though....
  7. Grass coating snow, very lightly snowing after a very lightly raining night. Not to rain on anyone's parade, but I think the models are a tad optimistic with the 95ers. Elevations (well, in higher qpf areas, obviously) will do well, but I'd be pleased to hit 4 inches of paste, just given time of day and month of year. That being said, good luck all, and hoping for some monster rates!
  8. 4pm briefing up at Mt. Holly https://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
  9. Lol at myself. Missed that detail, obviously. Chester Wayne & Bucks. Still selfish about the jackpot though, haha.
  10. NJ. Someone's gonna jackpot, so I pick me. Weather likely picks LI, but what can you do.
  11. Mercer, Somerset, Bucks. Cause I like losing and love model hugging. PHL 9.2 in.
  12. March Lion Obs (Wind, Rain, Snow, Blowing Trash)

    Power out, on generator. Not unexpected here. Still howling winds. Snow is so wind dependant I'd say 1-1.5 inch.
  13. March Lion Obs (Wind, Rain, Snow, Blowing Trash)

    Some wind at 2m,but a roaring jet above. That gets down and damage will be even worse. Roads ok from Philly to TTN.
  14. March Lion Obs (Wind, Rain, Snow, Blowing Trash)

    Always fun to see the laundry list of warnings, haha.
  15. March Lion Obs (Wind, Rain, Snow, Blowing Trash)

    Cool...new update, nicely done. Headline changes: Morris and Warren Counties in N NJ were upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded to include Hunterdon County in NJ. We may need to do a short-fused upgrade to a blizzard warning for Carbon and Monroe Counties. The 14Z METAR at MPO is the first observation that support blizzard conditions. Forecast changes: Blended previous temperature forecast (25%) with the last few runs of the HRRR (25%) and the colder NAM nest (50%). Re-ran PoWT top-down procedure using a blend of the RAP and NAM to capture the colder trend that seems to be verifying right now (though the NAM still seems too cold). This resulted in a quicker/more aggressive changeover from rain to rain-snow mix and/or snow across the region today. Forecast snowfall accumulations were tweaker higher with the latest update for higher elevations N/W of the Fall Line. We still think this will be a highly elevation-dependent snowfall event across NE PA and NW NJ. In addition to the very dangerous travel conditions (due to snow-covered roads and poor visibilities) today, the combination of this snow being heavy and wet and the strong northwest winds gusting 40 to 55 mph is cause for concern that significant damage to trees and utility lines will occur, resulting in numerous to potentially widespread power outages. The ridges above 800 feet in elevation north of I-78 will experience a high impact wintry event. For lower elevations along and east of the Fall Line, there have already been reports of rain changing to snow across Delmarva and central NJ in bursts of heavier precip (via enhanced dynamical cooling). Rain will continue to mix with or changeover to snow at times throughout the day, especially across NJ where the heavier deformation band on the western side of the low will rotate through. Eventually, this band may pivot back to the south/west, late this afternoon, allowing for a brief changeover to snow again over Delmarva. Overall, do not expect snow to accumulate on roads owing to the warm ground but localized accumulations on non-paved surfaces are possible. We do not buy into the extreme outlier snowfall accumulations these models are showing (e.g., 5-10" of snow along and east of the DE Valley down into the greater Phila area) b/c these algorithms assume a 10:1 SLR and b/c the model explicit microphysics package indicates something other than just pure snow (rain/snow mix) with probability of frozen precip values in the 40-80 percent range. The next task is to update the wind grids. Based on upstream observations and latest HRRR/RAP BUFKIT soundings, we will may need to raise peak wind gusts this afternoon to 60-70 mph in eastern MD and Delmarva.