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chescopawxman

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Everything posted by chescopawxman

  1. If 12z NAM is to be believed 850's fall below 0c by Sunday eve....marginal surface temps but might support a small slushy accumulations at some higher spots like NW Chesco....just something to keep an eye on...
  2. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Dense fog this AM. Current WXSIM forecast for NW Chesco has 2.21" of rain - if this occurs this will become the wettest year since coop records began in 1894 - we are only 1.68" away....if it's gonna be this wet we might as well set a new record! Wxsim also shows some mixing with snow Sunday night
  3. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Of note today is the 11th straight day without measurable precipitation. This is the longest dry stretch in 2018 and the longest dry period in over 14 months since the 15 straight dry days we experienced here in Chester County Pa from 9/20/17 thru 10/4/17
  4. chescopawxman

    Dec 13th lgt snow potential

    Latest HRRR has some precip breaking out across NW Chesco around 11z...timing could be a problem. Of course Adam Joseph just tweeted - why is Penndot treating roads??
  5. chescopawxman

    Our 2nd Winter Event?? - November 30 - December 1st

    He is the best at always finding a way to snow....not saying that he has the best forecast but if you follow JB you will never ever be surprised by a snow event - LOL!!! I truly enjoy his views - great insights and thoughts on pattern evolution maybe the best I have ever seen - just if only we all lived at 850mb....
  6. While this may not be large by mid-winter standards....the EURO and of course JB have been focused on this date - JB thinks a general 2" to 4" is possible - something to keep an eye on
  7. chescopawxman

    Our 2nd Winter Event?? - November 30 - December 1st

    JB now liking the little event on Thursday with a good chance the snow will carry to the coast with more than NWS offices are now thinking (my P&C has 20% chance)
  8. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    AM low 20.3 of course temps down in the teens in the valley spots in the county. So the 1st 10 days of December here in Chester County PA were our coldest to start December since 2010. Through the 1st 10 days we averaged 34.2 or (2.6) below normal. Back in 2010 we averaged 30.6 over the 1st 10 days of the month
  9. chescopawxman

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    How many days till pitchers and catchers??
  10. So far this decade Chester County PA is averaging 45.0" of snow each season. If we keep this pace over the remaining 2 winter seasons left in this decade we will finish as the snowiest decade since NWS Coop record keeping began in the 1890's. Below are the 13 decades ranked from greatest to least. 1) 2010-2020: 45.0" (partial) 2) 1900-1910: 44.9" 3) 1910-1920: 39.0" 4) 2000-2010: 37.9" 5) 1894-1900: 34.2" (partial) 6) 1920-1930: 33.3" 7) 1980-1990: 33.0" 😎 1960-1970: 31.7” 9) 1990-2000: 31.5” 10) 1950-1960: 25.4” 11) 1930-1940: 24.4” 12)1970-80: 21.7” 13) 1940-1950: 21.6”
  11. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Pretty amazing stat I just came across when seeing that State College PA has experienced their 2nd coldest daily max temp November on record - I went back and searched for the same stat for Chester County and we finished November with an average daily max of just 47.1 - tied for 2nd coldest max average in my 125 year data set with November 1996 (interesting) and behind only the 44.4 average max experienced back in 1936. On a rain note - with another 0.54" over the last 2 days we are up to 73.44" for 2018 only 1.68" from a new record wet year.
  12. I am sharing my latest article for the Sweetwater Reported here in East Nantmeal Township - I will grade myself at the end of the season! Hello again from Paul at the East Nantmeal PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com). Be sure to follow me on twitter at Twitter as I am tweeting multiple daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather and drone photos of our beautiful Township. When I wrote my last article, we were nearing the end of what had been a very wet summer season, unfortunately September continued this trend with over 1” of rain falling on 4 days of the month. Overall, we ended September with 8.71” this was the 6th wettest September dating back to 1894 and the wettest since the 10.97” that fell in 2003. The all-time wettest September was the 14.48” that fell back in 1999 much of that due to the rain from Hurricane Floyd. Temperature wise it was also the 15th warmest September in our history with an average temperature of 68.2 or 3.3 above normal. October was a much calmer and finally a drier month ending a streak of 5 consecutive above normal rain months dating back to May. During October only 3.08” fell which is 1.32” below normal. Temperature wise it was a little (+1.8) degrees above normal. While there was a couple morning that we approached freezing with the lowest reading the 34.3 on the 25th we did not experience anything other than some scattered frost. November began very warm with the 1st eight days of the month averaging almost 5 degrees above normal. However, a strong cold front moving through on the 9th resulted in 17 of the next 20 days averaging below normal. This included our first freeze of the fall season on November 10th. This ended the East Nantmeal growing season after 203 days (last freeze was April 21st). Our normal growing season is 188 days. The longest growing season was the 233 days back in 2005, while the shortest was only 119 days back in 1956. Overall through the 28th we are averaging around 3 degrees below normal for temperatures. In addition to the cold we also experience our first snowfall of the season and a significant early season event at that. The 7.3” that fell on the 15th and 16th was the 3rd largest November snowstorm in Chester County history surpassed only by the 9.5” that fell on November 11, 1906 and the 8.6” that fell on November 6, 1953. We will also finish November as the 6th snowiest in our history. So, what does this early winter weather portend for our upcoming winter? To level set folks here in NW Chester County we average 36.7 inches of snow in a typical winter season. My 2017/18 winter forecast from last year was fairly close regarding temperatures but missed badly on how warm (+7.2 degrees) February 2018 actually was. My snow forecast of 50” was a little low, as we ended up with 58.5” of snow with much more (30.6”) falling in March than I had forecasted (7”). One added note this decade is now on pace to potentially be the snowiest decade in Chester County history with an average seasonal snowfall since 2010 of 44.1" this trails only the 1900-1909 decade which averaged 44.9" Below is my Winter Forecast for East Nantmeal Township with average temperature and snowfall estimates by month. To summarize regarding temperatures. I see a slightly below normal December due to a cold and relatively snowy first 15 days of the month (watch for snow in the 12/5-10 timeframe). I then see a warm up before Christmas but turning colder again by New Year’s Eve – so no White Christmas this year. We generally have a 25% chance of a White Christmas with our last being in 2012. I expect a below normal and snowy January followed by a near normal but snowy February, an above normal March and a normal April. Regarding snowfall I am forecasting around 63” of snowfall this winter season or about 26” above our seasonal average. Β· December 2018 – Avg. Temperature 34.0 degrees (0.5) below normal with Snowfall of 9” which is 4” above normal Β· January 2019 – Avg. Temperature 28.0 degrees (1.9) below normal with Snowfall of 20” or +9” above normal Β· February 2019 – Avg. Temperature 33.0 degrees +0.7 above normal with Snowfall of 18” or +6” above normal Β· March 2019 – Avg. Temperature 42.5 +2.2 above normal with Snowfall of 6” or near normal Β· April 2019 – Avg. Temperature 51.0 (0.2) below normal with Snowfall of 1” or near normal I hope all of you have a great Christmas, Hanukkah and Holiday Season! If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter and send me an email. Until next time –All the best! Paul β€œSome are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin
  13. Another chilly stat to add to this November as it appears we will finish November with an average daily max of just 47.1 - this will be tied for 2nd coldest daily average max temperature in my 125 year data set tied with November 1996 (interesting) and behind only the 44.4 average max experienced back in 1936 - overall this November will finish 27th coldest out of the last 125 Novembers.
  14. chescopawxman

    Our 2nd Winter Event?? - November 30 - December 1st

    This "event" will not be verified.....0 for 1 in JB winter tracking
  15. by interest like I said in my next post - not in extent of frozen (as I think the 5th is not impressive) but how it will impact the next event - which I am more enthused about...
  16. chescopawxman

    December 9th-10th Winter Storm Threat

    Really think the 5th event sets up the 8th/9th which I think will be a much more wintry event....
  17. Like many here...not that interested in the 5th but the next one.....
  18. chescopawxman

    Our 2nd Winter Event?? - November 30 - December 1st

    JB update on Wed - backing off a bit but still sees a "surprise" snow down to the mason dixon line by Saturday AM....again not a lot but...
  19. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    High today 39.2 and current temp of 33.9 is out low temp. This was out 17th out of 27 days this month with below normal temps. We will finish this month as the coldest November since 2014. This will make it 6 months with above normal temps and 5 months below normal so far this year.
  20. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Ended up with 0.62" of rain yesterday here in NW Chesco this brings the monthly total to 7.94" - trailing only November 1972 with 8.87". Also for 2018 YTD we are now up to 72.90" of w.e. in the bucket - good for #2 wettest year on coop records back to 1894. Trailing the wettest year 1996 (75.12") by only 2.22" - I would say we are almost certain to finish 2018 as the wettest year on record.
  21. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    With yesterday's 1.62" of rain here in Chester County we are now up to 7.32" of precipitation in November. This currently puts us at 6th all-time. We will likely move up to #2 all-time tomorrow passing 1963 (7.34") / 1932 (7.42") / 1907 (7.52") and 1986 (7.55"). this will leave us only trailing November 1972 when 8.87" of precip fell. Of bigger news is the increasing likelihood that we will pass 1996 (75.12") as wettest year on record here in the County. We are currently #2 already with 72.28" of rain so far in 2018.
  22. chescopawxman

    11/24, Another Weekend, Another Deluge

    Just had the highest wind gust of 2018 here in Sea Isle City NJ with a ENE gust at 54 mph. Pouring rain and 54.7 temp while back in East Nantmeal we have struggled to get out of the 30's but now up to 40.8
  23. chescopawxman

    Teens club, the frozen gobbler edition

    We did drop to 17.6 at 11:59pm last evening moving this Thanksgiving to the 3rd coldest max temp behind only 1903 and 1947. Also yesterday's 30.2 max temp set a new record low max for the date surpassing the 31.0 max temp set back in 1989. Today's AM Low of 13.8 was a couple degrees short of the record low for today which was 11.0 in 1989. We have a chance to set another record low max for the date today which is also 31.0 set back in 1989.
  24. chescopawxman

    Teens club, the frozen gobbler edition

    Our high for today will be the 30.2 at midnight making this our 2nd coldest Thanksgiving max temp behind only the 27.0 high from 1996 (records back to 1894) We also reached the teens club for the 1st time with a low of 19.5 - good for coldest Thanksgiving since 2005 and overall our 5th coldest reading on Turkey day passing the 19.9 from Thanksgiving 2000. Good shot we move up in the rankings before midnight the top 4 coldest are: 11/26/1903 - 14.0 11/27/1947 - 17.0 11/24/2005 - 18.8 11/29/1894 - 19.0 Happy Thanksgiving to all!! Paul
  25. chescopawxman

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    As of 11:30 pm local time we are down to 31.1 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. With the fact that the high temperature for today will be occurring at 12:01 am we have already recorded the 3rd coldest maximum temperature for Thanksgiving Day here in the County. If we drop another 0.2 degrees over the next 29 minutes we will record the 2nd coldest maximum Thanksgiving Day Temp. The only colder Thanksgiving Day in the last 125 years was back in 1996 when we could only top out at 27.0 for the high temp. We will also have a great chance at a top 5 coldest minimum temperature <19.9 for Thanksgiving Day likely before sunrise tomorrow with an outside chance we eclipse the all-time Thanksgiving Day minimum of 14.0 set back in 1993 by potentially midnight tomorrow night. Much of the day tomorrow will feature temps in the low to mid-20's
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