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Everything posted by chescopawxman

  1. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Temps have fallen all day here in Chester County PA since the morning high of 53.8 - currently down to 44.6. My latest WXSIM forecast for East Nantmeal Township has only one more day above 50 degrees between now and December 1st - that being Tuesday the 28th...also mighty dry with just 0.12" of rain for the rest of the month.
  2. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    only got down to 32.8 in East Nantmeal overnight - only 4 sub 32 lows so far this season.
  3. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Still no frost out here in Chesco above the frost zone.....
  4. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    A lot of lower spots in Chester and Montgomery County have already slipped to or below freezing. Watch for some black ice as residual moisture from earlier and fog could make things a bit dicey in spots. No worries in the higher spots like here as we are at 37.7 but seeing that KPTW is already at 32.0 and Perkasie is 32 with Freezing Fog
  5. Private Professional MET Thoughts

    Some updated Winter Forecast thoughts from this AM from the WeatherBell Team "In terms of the past five winters for the nation as a whole, this should be a more widespread winter. I think there will be periods of shifting, as to where the worst of winter will be. The forecast balances out two dangers: (1) that the 1995-96 example tries to run the table and (2) if the MJO is amped-up and goes into the cold phases, it could get really ugly given there will be an opportunity to put snow down. The other winters are when major warmups beat back the overall cold. My strategy from the get-go is to let you know this is not some ho-hum winter. A lot of forecasts issued after our first one back in summer seem to echo what we have been saying. That being said, I had my suspicions on the modeling having to shift eastward for the early winter, so I am jumping on that. I fear the threat of a mid-winter warm up. The analogs I showed you had the warm October, the cold trying to get into the East early, but also have a pull back. So the result is more cold farther to the east because of the early cold and then try to home in as we see some of the other things I just talked about. This winter has a lot of potential and certainly the way we get to the end is likely to be a heck of ride."
  6. Private Professional MET Thoughts

    It looks like the Weatherbell folks had a pretty good read on the northern extent of the light snow - JB reports this AM that the snow is breaking out albeit light (and will all the way to NYC) due to the height falls from the west due to the tightening baroclinic zone - while the surface low pressure is down near Florida. He believes you can see a small area of low pressure showing along Cape Hatteras and mentioned most folks will see has his ideas from earlier in the week had merit. Regarding the Friday/Sat system he says just like this event watch for that westward bias of the EURO and look to the parallel EURO for a better idea. The latest EURO shows 19" of snow for Coatesville PA next weekend.
  7. AM Low was 20.3 here in East Nantmeal breaking the 35 year record low of 24.0 set back in 1988 but we ended up just shy of the all-time Chester County low of 19 set back in 1957. Today will mark the 5th straight below normal day....Wxsim forecast's we may go another week with below normal readings before a possible one day warm up next weekend before more below normal temps.
  8. Currently at 24.0 here in East Nantmeal - 3rd coldest November 10th in 35 years - behind 22.0 in 1995 and 20.0 in 2003. Already at the 35 year record low for tomorrow in Chesco at 24.0 set in 1988 with a shot at the all-time record low going back to 1894 in Chester County which is 19.0 back in 1957. Mighty impressive early season chill in these parts!
  9. Down to 29.9 here in East Nantmeal...still hanging on to 34.7 at the beach in Sea Isle City...all time record low back to 1894 in Chester County is in jeopardy tonight....who would have thought with global warming/climate change this could happen! Call me stunned!
  10. Temp falling steadily here in NW Chesco now down to 37.3 - midnight high was 45.6...hi wind gust so far this AM has been 20mph - lo wind chill 27.5
  11. Friday/sat am cold blast

    To put this in perspective since 1983 there has only been 2 days ever with a low temp in November below 16 degrees here in Chester County - they were 11/23 & 11/24 back in 1989. Not saying we will...but if we get below 16 degrees that is some tres impressive early season chill!! I
  12. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Whatever happened to Ruggie? Always had those great SJ Forecasts??
  13. Friday/sat am cold blast

    Regarding growing season...here above the frost line in the soaring majestic hills of NW Chester County we have not been close to freezing this year...but I know lower spots 150 feet and lower have had at least heavy frost....here no frost or freeze yet....despite how cold my thermometer is!! LOL!!
  14. Friday/sat am cold blast

    Hey Tom. Actually I think PHL's record low is 21 for the 11th - still higher than here in Chester County it is 19 in 1957- that said I might be missing something...let me know - thanks! Paul
  15. Friday/sat am cold blast

    Looking at the local records here in Chester County there is a chance if the NWS point and click (15) or WXSIM (18) are correct for us to record some remarkable early season lows. For November 11th the record low from 1983 to Present is the 24 set back in 1988 we are very likely to smash that mark. The all-time Chester County low dating back to 1894 is the 19 degree mark set back in 1957. Interesting times....
  16. Temp down to 42.8 here with some occasional IP starting to mix in as the rain gets a bit heavier
  17. Rain here in NW Chesco and 43.0 - looks like IP starting to mix in at KMDT about 60 mi west of here
  18. 37.3 for the AM low in East Nantmeal and 42.9 in Sea Isle City...would not be surprised to see a few wet flakes mixing in later tonight above 650 ft in Chesco....
  19. 6 Inch Plus Snowstorms by Decade

    With the snow season potentially drawing near I thought I would go back and analyze 6" + snowstorms by decade to see if we really did have bigger snowstorms back when my dad was a kid...still a chance this current decade could be a top 4 snowiest on record...with a little luck! Here are the Chester County 6" + Snowstorms ranked by snowiest decade: 1 - 1960's - 19 2 - 1910's - 19 3 - 1900's - 19 4 - 2000's - 16 5 - 1980's - 16 6 - 1930's - 16 7 - 1920's - 15 8 - This decade (partial) - 11 9 - 1950's - 11 10 - 1990's - 9 11 - 1970's - 9 12 - 1940's - 8
  20. 6 Inch Plus Snowstorms by Decade

    So when did climate change start? I guess not in the 1960's? I guess it really started happening in the 70's?
  21. 6 Inch Plus Snowstorms by Decade

    Tony - really surprised to see that this decade is likely to go down as the decade with most significant snow events - great stats! Thanks!
  22. Agreed with Tom on more potential ice events....really starting to look like a relative quick start to winter (compared with recent Decembers) I would not be surprised to see our 1st measurable snow before the end of the 1st week of December this year here in NW Chesco. WeatherBell is riding 2005 and 2010 Analogs for December and it looks like CFS is starting to come around to a cooler than normal look. For reference those Decembers looked like the below here in Chesco 2010 - Temp 4.4 below normal with 7.0" of snow 2005 - Temp 1.9 below normal with 10.8" of snow
  23. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    0.16" here in NW Chesco and 0.14" in Sea Isle City NJ
  24. Ugh. EST & Pre 5 PM Sunsets Are Back.

    No complaints here....let the holiday season begin - never too early!
  25. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Last year our 1st Freeze at the higher spots in Chester County was not until November 12th - looks like quite a bit chillier pattern is incoming...patience will be rewarded this year...