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chescopawxman

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chescopawxman last won the day on December 17 2019

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About chescopawxman

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    Chescopawxman
  • Birthday 12/17/1963

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    www.chescowx.com

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  • Location:
    East Nantmeal Township, Chester County PA 685 ft ASL on the Welsh Mountain Anticline

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  1. WXSIM does have that high occurring at 11:55pm so it sees the warmer air coming but does not buy a 37. Based on my experience here....neither do I - if we do put down some frozen we will barely get to freezing at best 33 IMHO....but let's see how it works out - by later tonight the spread may get closer...I suspect the truth is between WXSIM an NWS in this case
  2. WXSIM with 18z GFS/NAM backing off on the snow but hitting sleet harder - thus reducing snow/sleet totals by about an inch - total now 2" to 3" at most - however as I mentioned early this AM I am not surprised NWS brought the WWA down into Western Chester County with their 4pm update - the fascinating (to me) big battle tomorrow will be on temps - the NWS P&C has me at 37 while WXSIM only 26.....very rare to see that large spread between WXSIM and NWS...who will win the great battle of NW Chesco weather??? stay tuned!! Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 26. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Low 24, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  3. WXSIM with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5" Here is the rundown: 10am snow arrives temp (22.2) 1pm Moderate IP (23.6) 4pm Heavy IP (23.4) 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6) Snow ends around 8pm
  4. Well at least I saw my 1st plowable snow event this week.....but I had to go all the way to Seattle on business to see it. It was fascinating to see their approach to snow removal there....or lack thereof. I was told they have less than 30 trucks for the whole city and are not allowed to use salt or brine. So they simply throw down sand. This approach did not work well. Where I was about 20 miles N of the airport they had about 5" of snow early Monday morning - when I arrived Tuesday night the roads even major roads like the I5 still had snow on some outside lanes. While i was on the airplane Wednesday to leave it started snowing again and they had to deice the plane. My plane was further delayed when they found the water in the bathroom had frozen on the inbound flight. This delay made me miss my connection in Chicago back to PHL and had to stay over in Chicago...taking the 1st flight back yesterday....joy of travel! few pix from Seattle below
  5. My current thoughts (crude as it may be) on the upcoming event
  6. Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3". Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3) 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7) 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6) 7pm Heavy snow (23.6) 8pm snow ending (23.9)
  7. WXSIM with 0z NAM and 18z GFS for NW Chesco - 3" to 5" of snow/sleet Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 29. Wind south around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. Snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind south-southwest around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  8. Ended up with 0.3" of snow from the snow squall that blew through temp dropped to 30 with it's passage
  9. WXSIM with 12z NAM/GFS data trended a bit snowier but still mainly sleet with temps never rising above freezing in NW Chester County PA during the storm. Timing - Snow arrives by 1230pm briefly heavy before changing to IP by 2pm then IP heavy at times before mixing back with snow by 6pm and ending by 730pm - total snow/sleet accumulation 3" to 4"
  10. WXSIM continues the trend toward a sleet fest for NW Chesco....I suspect areas northeast bound toward Tom and certainly ABE will have a plowable snow/sleet amount greater than 3" before znizzle or drizzle Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 18. Wind south-southeast around 5 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 31, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 30. Wind south around 13 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches.
  11. Latest WXSIM for Chester County PA looks like it favors a sleet fest with up to 4" of snow and sleet accumulation....more changes incoming ....as the GFS/NAM change..... Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 13 to 20. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 29. Wind south around 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
  12. Wxsim looks a bit tamer now with 3" to 6" of snow/IP - it will change as the models move....stay tuned! Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill around 19. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 28. Wind south around 11 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches.
  13. Latest Wxsim for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!! Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18. Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
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