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  1. Perfect description and explanation why of "if it doesn't verify it's on the model itself", thanks.
  2. anowal01

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    Close to 3 in here e of kacy...not far from Galloway
  3. 12k and 32k NAM still has it snowing over SE portion of forecast area at midnite tomorrow nite...can't say NAM is out of its range now, if it doesn't verify all on the model itself...if it's right, coastal overperformer, theme of the season so far despite past performance not being an indicator of future results...
  4. anowal01

    1/12-1/13 OBS, congrats south. Will Tom be banned?

    Light snow E of KACY...that's not virga over us on radar...
  5. Keeping in mind that model output is guidance, not a verbatim forecast tool, I get the sense the globals are setting the goalposts...GFS suppressed, GGEM amped (assuming it folows RGEM)...with the Euro holding somewhere in between. Sounds awfully familiar...
  6. Looking at the trend of Vorticity, 24 hours ago, you had a suppressive look pressing down almost to NJ. Then the NAM played around with trying to phase for 3 runs, and now we are back to TPV being in upstate NY/VT. So it would seem the NAM is in a worse spot for coastal potential then it was 6 hours ago, but in a better spot for overruning compared to 24 hours ago. Don't disagree with the QPF outcome being noise at this point, but phasing vs suppression would have had a bigger synoptic impact than just model noise. It does reinforce our hesitation to rely on the NAM for anything beyond the very short term as one would have looked at 3 model runs as a trend...only to have gone in the exact opposite direction on the subsequent run. Makes one ask, though, which is the outlier, the 3 previous runs or this run? Based on other guidance, I suppose we would come to the conclusion it is the NAM's last 3 runs as the outlier...
  7. Disagree with what? I think we are all seeing the same thing, suppressive effects are a bit east at 12Z and less chance of phasing...agree that at 36 heights at coast higher relative to 6Z after having been a bit lower at hr 30...
  8. At 30, looks like S/W holding back just a bit...letting press move east in front of it? Heights drop a bit on the coast, but rising through OH Valley...
  9. Thru 21 12Z NAM continues dropping backside energy from TPV...will see if this has the suppression effect or attempted phase trend continues...
  10. Guess that overnite burst on the 3k is still WAA...transfer at Myrtle Beach? If TPV wasn't bad enough, sheesh... ETA - Reckon the reason for the transfer there on 3k IS TPV streamer...
  11. 0Z NAM through 24 dropping the back side of the streamer even harder than 18Z...
  12. Last bastion for Mt. Holly forecast area snow weenies this afternoon is the CMC, and that really only helps the south-southeast portion of the area.
  13. Visually looks just like the metaphoric hammer that it is...
  14. FV3 meanwhile, when it runs, gives you overrunning and a shot from the coastal...10-1 snow accumulation isn't far off from euro with similar evolution, overruning plus coastal, and would imagine kuchera a bit better...and the FV3 is what we are supposed to be looking at, right? Starting to move towards consensus...at least for today.