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Chubbs

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Everything posted by Chubbs

  1. Chubbs

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Guess we shouldn't complain. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/raceto100
  2. Transient confluence and a PNA spike just before xmas, so we have an outside shot at a white xmas in a generally unfavorable pattern
  3. With recent heavy snow, flooding is a concern in North Carolina/Va. Per GEFS estimates below, major flooding is likely in some of the same areas hit hard by Florence
  4. Looks like the odds of a significant disruption is increasing but pushed back in time in GEFS world.
  5. One KU on the 8-14 day analog list - not sure about the others 19751230 19661226 19591230 19691230 19891212 19710104 19611208 20090109 19671210 19991222
  6. Chubbs

    Dec 13th lgt snow potential

    That would make sense with best moisture/lift below DGZ. Upslope a big help.
  7. Chubbs

    Dec 13th lgt snow potential

    NAM 3k below. Looks like a forecasters nightmare with spotty snows and best lift and moisture below DGZ.
  8. Chubbs

    Dec 13th lgt snow potential

    Best moisture and lift is below DGZ. Below is Tom's house, worse further south.
  9. I hate to say it but the GEM looks pretty good other than the northern edge not being sharp enough. GFS too far S on N edge. NAM+FV3 too far S on southern edge but that could be a TT issue in part.
  10. Not shown - Mt Mitchell NC - 34"
  11. Chubbs

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Fox hunt, Fair Hill, Md
  12. Charts from a week ago and today. GEFS mean a little early, but on the right track so far.
  13. GEFS and GEPS are both starting to show a Troposphere PV split. With ridging developing in Alaska and the Arctic ocean. 06 GEFS below
  14. LaLa GEFS favoring strat PV displacement towards Scandinavia which would send arctic air our way around xmas.
  15. Chubbs

    Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Al's comment about the wide fairways drew me to Renault this AM. Only a few traps still had water. Lightly played in the early am.
  16. CFS is also forecasting warming central Pac SST from Jan-->Feb
  17. Confusing CFS graphic showing forecast OLR and MJO (red lines) along the equator. CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of strong dateline convection in Jan and Feb as mjo fades/slows. Just an uncertain model prog but something to keep an eye on.
  18. Surprised Mt. Holly hasn't issued a radar hallucination advisory.
  19. Chubbs

    Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    More snow this winter?
  20. We didn't keep this close enough for the last minute creep north. But at least we may avoid the heaviest virga.
  21. Chubbs

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Pa year-to-date precipitation at record levels. Looks like wet years are getting wetter.
  22. Last day or two of CFS runs for Jan building PNA+/AO/NAO-
  23. CFS2 lines up well with the euro weeklies presumably as strat/mjo lead to a wintry pattern. Hopefully mother nature has read the playbook.
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