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Everything posted by Chubbs

  1. Modoki El Nino looking more likely. Like the early trends for next winter. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/jamstec_news/20180606/
  2. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Al's comment about the wide fairways drew me to Renault this AM. Only a few traps still had water. Lightly played in the early am.
  3. We have enough warm subsurface water in the Pacific (WWV=volume of water>20C) for a nino but it may not discharge fully this year. There was a multi-year lag before the last nino, and several other multi-year warm-water periods in chart below, the 1980s and early 90s in particular.
  4. 9/17-9/18 Remnants Of Florence Observations

    0.61 this am, 1.33 total.
  5. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Record warm low temperatures at most sites in the northeast the past 90 days. Only 6'th warmest at phl though, suggesting that the humid air is having its biggest impact at rural/suburban sites.
  6. 9/17-9/18 Remnants Of Florence Observations

    0.73" total, frequent lightning/thunder at one point
  7. Great seeing everyone. Some golf highlights: Shawn - hit two sticks and gave us wedges to the green Al - sunk two bombs Carl - two birds and putted from sand trap over large lip to tap-in Tom - drive over our heads onto green Tony - free lunch
  8. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Nice day offshore for a change.
  9. Still socked in here. Good job by Tony though - 588mb and a free lunch
  10. The EPS and the bias adjusted consensus forecasts that weight the EPS heavily performed well, hence the very good nhc forecasts.
  11. yup even 6 days out.
  12. Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Back home after a cloudy, dank week at the shore. Found 4.27" in the rain gauge.
  13. Slight jog south as it tries to come onshore
  14. Some 10" amounts in Andy's post. Florence has a shot at NC+SC tropical cyclone rainfall records. WV could also be in play depending on track.
  15. The "Official" what are you drinking thread

    Hurricane watching in Somers Point
  16. Looking a little like Sandy, large but not strong.
  17. SE side still degraded but starting to improve. Large outer band approaching coast.
  18. Yeah the water will be in motion so last minute weakening isn't going to help much. Slow motion could prolong high water/wave action through one or more tide cycles, very unusual for a hurricane.