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Chubbs

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Everything posted by Chubbs

  1. DJF CFS trending to a Nina look with Alaska/Arctic ridging. Every minute of latitude would help in that set-up.
  2. Yup. MJO strengthening in warm Indian ocean phase. Don't put the golf clubs away.
  3. LaLa GEFS starting to like Alaska ridging per post above
  4. Cohen discusses his winter forecast in his latest blog. One positive for the east coast is unusually low sea ice near Alaska which will tend to favor ridging.
  5. Per CFS, recent trend is to a stronger nina, moderate in most recent runs (and east based).
  6. Could mark the end of this pattern. Models last night hinting at AO/NAO turning positive around day 10 with cold air retreating some. We'll see.
  7. Locally, we could end up with one of our bigger Oct-->Nov T reversals
  8. Weather.us also has the latest euro seasonal forecast. Looks like 2010/11 with a NAO- start, a stormy january and a feb warm-up.
  9. Fall Banter Thread

    Noticed that weather.us has radar archived back to 1991 so we can go back and relive our favorite snowstorms (or tstorm/rain etc.)
  10. Like other models euro is trending to a stronger more east-based Nina.
  11. Here is Cohen's outlook. One of the coldest I've seen here. https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
  12. Last 4 EPS runs - AO/NAO trending more negative. Doesn't seem to be much predictability with this pattern.
  13. Agree. Its early and a ninaish pattern with best snow chances along US/Can border. I'm guessing we will have to go through a relaxation period before better snow chances arrive.
  14. Here is the chance of a white Tgiving in any year - < 3% for most of us.
  15. The original looks pretty good given where we are today. We'll know by Thanksgiving if the rival has legs.
  16. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Al's comment about the wide fairways drew me to Renault this AM. Only a few traps still had water. Lightly played in the early am.
  17. In his latest blog Cohen notes that the AO- troposphere is currently uncoupled from strong stratosphere PV. There is no strat disturbance in sight currently. He gives three options: 1) they stay uncoupled, 2) the strat PV eventually weakens or 3) PV remains strong and couples with troposphere. 1 or 2 could lead to a good winter here. 3 would torch.
  18. Euro started breaking with the pack on yesterday's 12z run. A coup if right.
  19. Potential winter storm threats

    weather.us has eps snow depth forecasts out to 15 days. Philly has gone from near zero for tday --->zero in past couple of cycles.
  20. Potential winter storm threats

    06 gfs has rain--> snow across area on Tday. Big differences remain between euro/eps and gfs/gefs.
  21. Potential winter storm threats

    euro in Dr No mode. Need to get the weekend system that becomes a 50/50 sorted out first.
  22. Potential winter storm threats

    Tom's turkey day system more robust at 12z - still way out in time but at least it is plausible w 50/50
  23. Latest CFS SST forecast for DJF. Like the other models shifting eastwards. Hopefully that look pans out.
  24. 11/13 wintry mix obs.

    0.15 - 36 - drizzle
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