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Everything posted by Chubbs

  1. Lawn/Garden/Golf Thread

    Al's comment about the wide fairways drew me to Renault this AM. Only a few traps still had water. Lightly played in the early am.
  2. Not thrilled about our snow prospects, but expect some surprises down the line. Stronger blocking/further south track could have big impact at the shore.
  3. Last 6 gfs runs. Trending the Atlantic blocking faster/stronger and the SW storm slower.
  4. Here is the ukie probably the snowiest overnight. Trend south but the wrapped up storms bring in warm air from ocean.
  5. ukie a little SW of gfs. Could be a good snow for parts of WNE, NY and NPa
  6. cfs has favorable pattern to mid-March, followed by warmth, spring should pop then.
  7. ukie has ejecting low even further south and probably misses a phase so wide range of options
  8. Signal for a day 10/11 storm with a favorable track strengthened overnight. Below is 00z gefs, 06z backed off a bit.
  9. euro had southern track and phased two upper lows producing a big coastal.
  10. A couple of the 06 gefs are snowy here.
  11. about as likely as an eagles super bowl
  12. Quite a blocking ridge on the euro. Low hits a brick wall in the midwest.
  13. HM with an interesting thread on winter 150mb heights. This winter fits the recent 10-year winter pattern well. High amplitude with a warm arctic and a relatively cool NA continent driven by reduced sea ice and other climate factors. Winter temp extremes to be expected in this regime.
  14. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    0.51 this am - 0.59 past couple of days.
  15. Its an interesting set-up, different than anything we have seen this year. Odds favor north and elevation, but timing/track of primary and developing convergence in the NE allow a range of solutions. If convergence is strong enough may need a scary track in the midwest to avoid high and dry.
  16. Here is the eps with secondary track Va--> offshore
  17. GEM+euro with D7/8 snow for northern part of area. eps onboard.
  18. First shot at some frozen is now day 8-9 as pattern transitions and WC low ejects east. GEM+euro suppressed at 00z, 06gfs had some rain-->snow.
  19. Only 74 here, winds off the Chessie maybe holding us down. Per graphic below this is a summer strength 500mb ridge.
  20. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    58, one of the rare mornings its warmer here than phl or ilg. spring peepers out last night
  21. I'm not as concerned about the ridges. Here is mar 3 62 with a west coast trough, so heights rose along the WC after the trough moved east.
  22. Here is Mar58. Same idea of an upper low dropping SE from midwest around a 50/50, but with a better track for snow in our area vs 62.
  23. Through the wonders of the internet I found an animation of Mar62 dropping through the midwest.
  24. 18z gfs has a day 11 snow that would be hard to diagnose on day 9. This is why I am not worrying about details yet.