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Everything posted by Chubbs

  1. Here are some of the 06 gefs individuals. A narrow window balancing strength of storm/cold air push and timing.
  2. Yup too bad its November, classic Mid-Atlantic snow pattern on D8 GEFS with 50/50 and Tenn Valley wave. A solid storm pattern in general with split flow and strong waves in both branches.
  3. ukie is interesting for upcoming storm. Snow threat in Poconos/interior northeast
  4. On-the-other-hand east qbo has worked for a range of enso and enso shouldn't be a big factor this year. Also low solar/east qbo work together.
  5. Just for grins, checked the monthly maps for our 3 closest qbo anologs: 1978, 1995 and 2002. This November is in-line with the analogs with WC ridge/EC trough pairing. In the analogs blocking/NAO- built to a January peak and then faded in Feb. Hopefully we can stay on track.
  6. They are right on top of each other, Analog 6" lower, so difference is mainly due to instrument. On a still night like last night, my lower section which is 20+ feet lower could be 5-10F colder.
  7. 2 strong coastal storms on the euro. 2nd is still iffy. First will pound coast this weekend particularly NC+Va.
  8. Like the southern stream activity this week. Approaching a good Atlantic pattern also. Hints of things to come?
  9. There is only modest predictability at this point but we do have enough positive factors to make me optimistic: 1) positive/neutral metrics (ENSO/SST/QBO/solar), the better pundits are positive (HM in particular), the pattern coming up though mild often leads to better things down the line (strong MJO/Scandi block/Aleutian Low).
  10. Warm December a pretty good bet, hopefully the better qbo/solar vs last year improves things as winter progresses.
  11. Subsurface tells a different story than surface. Warm water is making steady eastward progress due to a Kelvin wave triggered by westerly wind bursts in Aug/Sept (chart above posted by michnick). So Modoki look is likely to fade, similar to last year. (may have to click once or twice to play)
  12. HRRR has about an hour of snow midday from second wave. Starts west and works to shore, with shore favored for a few tenths accumulation.
  13. Global temps this November (2018 includes gfs forecast for next 7 days) similar to last year. Will rest of winter follow?
  14. Yes still Modoki-like, but expect EPac warming as subsurface warmth pushes east/surfaces, much like last year.
  15. Nice post! Per this paper, roughly a month between MJO3 and SSW. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144
  16. November NMME enso - Neutral + with slight cooling from current
  17. 06 gfs with a flatter wave and a bit more back-end, an inch or so on the grass in the burbs perhaps. Euro has a few tenths.
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