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Chubbs

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Chubbs last won the day on April 6

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    New London, Pa, Elevation - 298'

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  1. Monday depends on timing - slower like ukie/euro is more threatening. Ukie sounding below (thx pivotal!)
  2. storm/wind reports so far - 59 - phl 64 - Ocean cty airport 63 - Salem cty - njwxnet
  3. 0.15", just some brief heavy rain. Wind afterwards the highlight.
  4. Latest update ...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon... In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA across MD/DE into NJ. Forcing for ascent along a cold front south of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the 15-19z time frame. Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near 500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700 mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon convection.
  5. The good news is we are off the rapid exponential increase. The bad news is new cases are still high and it doesn't look like we are limiting new cases as effectively as other countries. Need to pick-up our game to open things back up.
  6. Timing hasn't been good this week - too early (today) or late
  7. Still a ways off, but euro is trending to a fairly substantial threat, relative to what we normally see, next monday.
  8. 0.35", 2 rounds - around 1 and 3am. Nice light show.
  9. Slight chance, surface heating not required, - latest from SPC below A separate round of thunderstorms is expected late tonight from PA into the Mid-Atlantic with the surface cyclone and embedded mid-upper speed max. Though these storms will likely be elevated, sufficient buoyancy is expected for at least some threat for large hail, and perhaps a few strong/damaging gusts that could reach the surface.
  10. Bad timing with any storms in early am. Eastward advection of the convectively unstable thermodynamic profiles, east of the Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas is forecast overnight. This may occur above a residual stable layer near the surface, but it should contribute to increasing severe weather potential, at least in the form of thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail.
  11. Nice charts https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
  12. In the past 2 weeks we've improved from rapid exponential to roughly linear growth with nearly constant new cases per day. Hopefully we can start to turn down the new cases this week.
  13. I can remember reading some of the earliest papers from China in Jan/Feb. Data from China never said this was a "only a bad flu" for younger patient. That is an interpretation that developed downstream of the published data from China. Older and pre-existing clearly had higher risk, yes, but not a slam dunk for younger patients (20-50) and long hospital stays for those that developed pneumonia and survived.
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