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Chubbs last won the day on October 11

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About Chubbs

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    New London, Pa, Elevation - 298'

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  1. Per CFS, recent trend is to a stronger nina, moderate in most recent runs (and east based).
  2. Could mark the end of this pattern. Models last night hinting at AO/NAO turning positive around day 10 with cold air retreating some. We'll see.
  3. Locally, we could end up with one of our bigger Oct-->Nov T reversals
  4. Weather.us also has the latest euro seasonal forecast. Looks like 2010/11 with a NAO- start, a stormy january and a feb warm-up.
  5. Fall Banter Thread

    Noticed that weather.us has radar archived back to 1991 so we can go back and relive our favorite snowstorms (or tstorm/rain etc.)
  6. Like other models euro is trending to a stronger more east-based Nina.
  7. Here is Cohen's outlook. One of the coldest I've seen here. https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
  8. Last 4 EPS runs - AO/NAO trending more negative. Doesn't seem to be much predictability with this pattern.
  9. Agree. Its early and a ninaish pattern with best snow chances along US/Can border. I'm guessing we will have to go through a relaxation period before better snow chances arrive.
  10. Here is the chance of a white Tgiving in any year - < 3% for most of us.
  11. The original looks pretty good given where we are today. We'll know by Thanksgiving if the rival has legs.
  12. In his latest blog Cohen notes that the AO- troposphere is currently uncoupled from strong stratosphere PV. There is no strat disturbance in sight currently. He gives three options: 1) they stay uncoupled, 2) the strat PV eventually weakens or 3) PV remains strong and couples with troposphere. 1 or 2 could lead to a good winter here. 3 would torch.
  13. Euro started breaking with the pack on yesterday's 12z run. A coup if right.
  14. Potential winter storm threats

    weather.us has eps snow depth forecasts out to 15 days. Philly has gone from near zero for tday --->zero in past couple of cycles.