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Thunder Road

Meteorologist
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Thunder Road last won the day on May 8

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About Thunder Road

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    http://vortmax.somas.stonybrook.edu/WEB

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    Stony Brook, NY

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  1. I have an announcement...

    Now that NOAA Workforce Management has (finally) cleared me, I can announce that in June I'll be starting at NWS Marquette, Michigan! That's right, I'll be a Yooper! As I move from Lawn Guyland to Da Yoop, I'm excited at all the new opportunities and blah blah blah but I'm most excited about adding a new hideous accent to my repertoire. Their snow depth for the season went to 0 on May 1st. Next +NAO/-PNA La Nina winter I'll mail you guys a cooler full of Lake Superior's Finest™.
  2. Mom has 11" in Bensalem. I don't think I can remember ever seeing the tree limbs sag this much before.
  3. Yeah I like this map. Am I missing something? Climo is an important part of a good forecast.
  4. Where are you finding these?
  5. Anyway fwiw here's the snowfall accumulation map from our in-house NAM-WRF: (Sorry for the bad acid trip colors; one of these days I'll get around to cleaning it up...)
  6. That's way low, imo. We have a strong cyclone rapidly deepening as it approaches (before pulling away later) and as precip begins to thin out. Anywhere that begins to deepen the PBL, even just to 1000 feet or so, could gust over 60 mph. The heavy rain + already wet February + gusts has been concerned for widespread trees down and power outages in eastern PA if I'm being honest. Hopefully others would agree but I don't think I'm generally one to hype.
  7. Not sure. I mean just from basic dynamics, yes it would be coincident with the greatest height gradient. And if you think about it, extratropical cyclones always have the maximum wind removed from their centers because the height gradient follows the temperature gradient pattern of a baroclinic wave (think hypsometric equation, thickness being proportional to temperature). So to have the maximum PBL-top wind over eastern PA rather than closer to the cyclone center isn't at all inconceivable.
  8. So uh, yeah, that's 90 kts at 925 mb showing up over the PHL area on our in-house WRF...
  9. Yup. I forget if it was PHI or OKX but one of the AFDs actually used the word you're thinking of here: Ekman Transport. Large water bodies are generally under Ekman Balance, which is the balance between wind stress forcing and Coriolis force, thus, water movement deflects to the right of the wind in the Northern Hemisphere.
  10. Have I just never paid attention to Coastal Flood Watches before (very possible) or is the extra table with MLLW and MHHW new in response to my complaining last night? Haha
  11. What still eludes me is how to relate MLLW (or MHHW) with the AHPS flood stages. Atlantic City's tide+surge gets to 8.29 ft above MLLW Saturday. The AHPS hydrograph says the datum is MLLW, so 8.29 ft would be major flood stage. But am I reading that right?
  12. Cool, thanks! I'm trying to provide some guidance for family with a house in Sea Isle. They're not in a particularly bad spot, but they did have water in the lower level with 1/23/2016.
  13. "THE NAM CAN'T FORECAST" "IT CAN'T SNOW WITH A PRIMARY INTO LAKE ERIE" "DOUG PEDERSON IS THE wait wrong speech
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