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Thunder Road

Meteorologist
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Thunder Road last won the day on April 28 2019

Thunder Road had the most liked content!

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About Thunder Road

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    http://vortmax.somas.stonybrook.edu/WEB

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  • Location:
    Marquette, MI

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  1. with a whopping 10 votes, 1. Sandy (4.6) 2. 1/23/16 (4.5) 3. 2/5/10 (4.3) 3. 2/10/10 (4.3) 5. 6/29/12 derecho (3.8) 6. Irene (3.6) 7. 1/26/11 (3.4) 7. Early February 2014 Ice Storm in SE PA (3.4) 9. 10/31/19 QLCS with EF2 tornado (3.3) 10. 6/23/15 Delco & South Jersey bow echo (3.2)
  2. Just wanted to bump this real quick. I'll have a list out tomorrow.
  3. Here's it is! https://forms.gle/CRL22zoPfzeXeQay6 I cast my votes already and I make no claims of impartiality...
  4. A lot of NWS offices are doing it on social media (though I'm no help at MQT having only been here for the last 15% of the decade) but it got me thinking what the Philly area ones would be. So I've got a Google form drafted up, but before I push that out, I want a complete list of events to vote on. The voting will ask you to how impactful, memorable, or just plain enjoyable each event was on a scale of 1 to 5 (5 highest) - NOT to explicitly rank them. We'll let the final numbers speak for themselves to determine the highest 10, and their rank. (Does that make sense? You could say each and every one on the list was 5 out of 5 if you wanted - but that wouldn't help the ranking at all.) However I may need some help filling in blind spots from the years I wasn't living in the Philly area. I've broken down the events by category here, but in the end it will be a simple top-ten with no regard to type of event. Suggestions for things I'm missing? So far I have... Winter 2/5/10 2/10/10 12/26/10 1/26/11 10/29/11 Eagles Blizzard Bowl 12/8/13 Cold January 2014 2/13/14 1/23/16 Cold January 2018 11/15/18 Severe/Summer 6/24/10 Citizens Bank Park / 75 mph gust at PHL supercell June/July 2010 heat wave(s) and dryness June/July 2011 heat wave(s) 6/29/12 derecho 6/23/15 Delco & South Jersey bow echo 10/31/19 QLCS with EF2 tornado Tropical/Hydro Irene Lee remnants flooding Sept 2011 Sandy 8/13/18 KOP & Delco flash flooding
  5. Family at home (Bensalem) reports a 16 degree temp drop in 34 minutes. That's pretty neat
  6. @irishbri74 That seems like the only damage though, outside of trees and wires calls, right? I haven't managed to pick up anything else.
  7. P.S. we're holding on to a T of snow cover and the high here today was 29
  8. Delco scanner has "significant damage to six structures" but "no entrapments". They established Chelsea Court Command, which looks like it's right on the Delco/Chesco border near Westtown/Cheyney. https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/6684 If you go back, you can see the initial TDS at 0327z and then the CC dropout quickly expand over the next several scans, to cover a huge area from almost Plymouth Meeting to Springfield by the 0342z scan as the debris gets lofted (that's not all new debris). Unfortunately it looks like the damage was about 5 minutes before the TOR came out. QLCS tors in high population density areas suck.
  9. Yup, very sensitive to the elevation change. I live about 1/3 of the way between the lakeshore and the office and even there it's a noticeable difference.
  10. The continuous snow cover portion of winter 2018-19 has ended at NWS Marquette. The snow that fell November 9th finally melted this past Tuesday. Those 165 days make it the second longest snow cover streak at the office since records began there in 1961. (All records are unofficial blah blah blah...) The season total snowfall to date is 221.7" - only slightly above the 1981-2010 normal of 203.3" Our peak snow depth occurred AOA February 25th; it was 55". By that point our Observations Program Leader had added extenders to our snow sticks (they only go to 60" so we had to be prepared) and raised our rain bucket up about two feet to stop the snow from drifting into it. (Our 10 m anemometer also froze in place for about three weeks following an ice storm - but that's a story for another day!) I've attached a picture of me on the sidewalk out to the instrument shed, where the snow had drifted against the building a little bit. (I'm 5'6" for scale, so the depth behind me is only a few inches greater than the ambient depth.) A rain/snow mix is in the forecast for Monday, so winter still isn't over up here!
  11. I *really* wouldn't be looking at TT accum maps that include sleet as snow. They ought to just pull those down, honestly. Like others have said, Pivotal's Kuchera maps are a big step in the right direction.
  12. Hey folks, long time no chat. How's it going? Since ZR is in the mix for most I just thought I'd pop in and share this paper with you all: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1. This is the research behind the FRAM (Freezing Rain Accumulation Model) that the NWS uses. (Or at least, in Central Region we use. I can't speak to those living the Bohemia lifestyle 😉.) The gist is that ice-to-liquid-ratio, ILR, is often actually even less than 1:1. The FRAM is a function of 1) rain rate, 2) wind speed, and 3) surface Tw. Rain rate shows the most robust statistical relationship. And it might not be what you think. Higher rain rates decrease the ILR - see Figs. 10-12. Remember that there is latent heat released when liquid freezes on contact. More liquid freezing at a time means more latent heat release and thus more warming of the surface. Secondarily, a higher rain rate also means more splash-off and thus less of the liquid remaining as ice. As for the other factors... more wind helps to transport that heat away from the surface and thus increases the ILR. For Tw, the relationship is non-linear, but as you can see, the peak ILR occurs with a surface Tw of around -1 to -3 C. That means a surface temp of 32.0 F usually doesn't cut it. Even 30-31 F can be iffy for significant ice accrual. So if we were to believe the NAM (famous last words), in Philly you're getting most of your ZR in the optimal temp range, so that's a plus for significant ice accrual. You should also have a 10-15 knot wind, which helps. Buuut a big chunk of the precip is coming while rain rates are still pretty high. Looking at the NAM in BUFKIT, I'm seeing a rain rate around 0.1"/hr during the hours where the Bourgouin gives ZR. That may end up really limiting the ice accrual - the median ILR for that rain rate is 0.5, and the innerquartile range is ~0.3 to 0.65. So all in all I'm not ready to bite on a major ice storm just yet. Now that said, I was also really bearish on the November snow event, so... 🙃 P.S. We'll cross 100" on the season up here by the end of the weekend. Sitting at 99.1" right now, with 19" on the ground. Continuous snow cover since November 9th. And this is entirely normal!
  13. Now that NOAA Workforce Management has (finally) cleared me, I can announce that in June I'll be starting at NWS Marquette, Michigan! That's right, I'll be a Yooper! As I move from Lawn Guyland to Da Yoop, I'm excited at all the new opportunities and blah blah blah but I'm most excited about adding a new hideous accent to my repertoire. Their snow depth for the season went to 0 on May 1st. Next +NAO/-PNA La Nina winter I'll mail you guys a cooler full of Lake Superior's Finest™.
  14. Mom has 11" in Bensalem. I don't think I can remember ever seeing the tree limbs sag this much before.
  15. Yeah I like this map. Am I missing something? Climo is an important part of a good forecast.
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