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JimCaruso

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JimCaruso last won the day on June 21

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  1. I love the early sunrises too, I like to *be* up early, but it’s hard for me to *wake up* early, and I also need to for work. The early sun, and the birds, make it a lot easier to wake up and get going. I like the late sunsets too, particularly on the weekend when I want to be outside on my deck. It also leaves a little time to be outside after work on the weekdays too, although 9pm may be a little too late. At that time I want to be winding down, maybe even getting ready for bed, but the daylight always makes me feel like I “should” be outside doing something...
  2. Yes, it is ironic and sad that the days are already starting to get shorter on the first day of summer (and still relatively early in meteorological summer). Of course, it makes sense though, it wouldn’t make sense for the longest day to be at the *end* of summer (but what about in the middle?. 🤔) As you noted, in winter we can say the days are already getting longer, but cold and darkness should go together, I actually don’t like the days being longer when we are still freezing and hoping for snow.
  3. For us severe thunderstorm fans, last week had promise and that only makes the disappointment worse. Despite my love of storms, and even just enjoying rainfall that I can hear outside my window while I am working or listen to in bed at night or in the morning, I am looking forward to a dry weekend. We are having an annual family party tomorrow, and I would much rather get everyone outside as opposed to in the house. Last year we got rained out, I think the year before too...
  4. Took this photo looking west in Newtown yesterday, at the same time as radar image. This was after the main line had already passed through. Nothing severe or impressive, but I just thought it was cool to be able to photograph an isolated storm with an unobstructed view - those opportunities do not present themselves all that often around here.
  5. I love waking up to the sound of rain and thunder... Really don’t mind all this rain at all, on days I am inside working anyway... Was hoping today would be a good severe weather day, but now not so much... Upper winds have a veer/back profile. 6Z NAM shows a CAPE bullseye over SEPA, which I don’t understand because its own cloud cover model implies only a very brief window of insolation... 6Z NAM shows none of this morning’s precipitation; HRRR from just a couple hours ago has it further north. HRRR has a large echo moving through southern PA this afternoon/evening.
  6. Interesting write up re: Thursday 6/20 in today’s Mt Holly AFD. My little triangle of PA conveniently left out of the risk area yet again, further evidence of my complaint above 🙄
  7. Here in Newtown I am in the bullseye of SPC’s relatively localized 5% TOR risk. Surprising, because typically any slight risk area seems to conveniently stop just shy of Bucks County. 😒 Unfortunately I won’t have much time to follow the unfolding situation, or experience any storms, due to my kids graduation this afternoon. Double disappointment, as our outdoor dinner plans will probably get rained out.
  8. Thanks Tony. Weird thing is, when I went back to the 0hr models initialized for 0Z that evening, both GFS and NAM, I couldn’t get even a marginal TOR sounding.
  9. Did anyone get pics of this discrete supercell? Wondering if any structure was visible, or if entirely obscured by low clouds. Also did anyone save a surface map from around the time of convective initiation (or know of a site where I can access archived surface maps)?
  10. Thank you. I think I answered one of my other questions about mid-level flow, I pulled up the OZ, O-hour GFS for the period, looks like it was W, maybe WNW? The weird thing is I can’t get a tornado sounding from either NAM or GFS at that same time.
  11. Ironically, I am out on my annual Plains storm chasing vacation - an unsuccessful one, I might add - and missed this local event back home, while sitting under a blue sky in Kansas (only risk area in Tornado Alley on this day was in northeast TX, not good chase terrain and too close to DFW area, so took it as a “down day” and will be in a lull for the next few days as well). My wife called me to say that there was a tornado warning and some school buses that had departed from Newtown Elementary were returning to the school so the drivers and students could take shelter. I went to RadarScope and saw that the polygon did not actually include Newtown, that the storm itself was slightly north of there, and in fact had already shifted east of most of the polygon. Anyway, I was astonished to see an isolated/discrete supercell with a hook echo, obviously very rare in our region. Later on there was a tornado warning that did include Newtown, but that was embedded in a line. Of course, we don’t get tornado warnings very often, and I don’t remember ever having two in the same general area on the same night. I went back and got the archived image below (I’m pretty sure the timestamp is CDT because of my location). Since I wasn’t home following this event, can I ask a few questions for some “post-mortem” analysis? - Is this the same storm that was near Allentown / Quakertown in the radar image someone posted above? - What was the height of this storm? I assume it was relatively low-topped compared to a typical Plains supercell? - Is this the storm that had the EF-0 tornado mentioned above? Where exactly was the touchdown? - Was this event in NW flow? The supercell below seems oriented as if it were in SW flow... - Anyone have saved a surface map they can post for around the time of these storms? Curious to see the location of the front, temps/dews, etc. Can you imagine the embarrassment of coming back from a Plains chase vacation empty-handed, and everybody back home saying, “You should have stayed here” ?!? Well, I’ve got some time left out here, hopefully there will be a chance to redeem myself. Thanks! Jim
  12. Another big disappointment. I was never particularly excited about the threat due to the ongoing showers as late as midday, continuing clouds, and temps in the 60s. I was briefly intrigued when I saw the sun try to peak out in the afternoon, but it didn’t last long and would have been too little too late anyway; it’s not like we could have gotten strong heating that quickly like in June or July. Then I got excited again when the tornado watch popped up on my iPhone app, but I don’t think Newtown was even actually in the parallelogram. I really hadn’t even been following the situation much during the day, so I went back, looked at the obs, read an earlier SPC MSD, and got a little excited about the warm front lying through the area, noting the backed winds, but still concerned about the 60s temps. My wife was out and preparing to go pick up two of my kids somewhere nearby at 6 and take them to a birthday party. Knowing my wife is not comfortable driving in heavy rain, I told her to come home and get me so I could drive instead. Based on the radar and speed referenced in the severe warning, I knew we had 20 minutes, which would be exactly 6:00 and that was pretty much spot on. I was waiting outside for my kids to come out of the place. There was never a great shelf cloud, probably because the outflow wasn’t moving into very warm air, but there was still that moment of exhilaration I love, when the rain and wind of the gust front first came crashing in like a wave on the shore. But that was it, just that one moment of excitement, and then it was just rain - no sustained wind, not even a lightning strike or single clap of thunder. I could see on RadarScope that all lightning was from the latitude of Philadelphia and south. What a waste, I mean how often do we get backed winds with a warm front just happening to lie across the area??
  13. Looks like Saturday could be the first real springlike day on a weekend. I’ve been in my winter routine of catching up on work from my home office every Saturday, and I still have to do that this weekend because of a big deadline, so now that pull of competing desires and demands begins, that’s something I don’t have to worry about in the winter. Hoping to enjoy Saturday outdoors and work on Sunday instead, when it’s not supposed to be quite as nice. These first couple nice weekend days are mainly for getting the yard ready anyway.
  14. I’ve been threatening to come to this for a couple years now, and hope to finally make it this time. I don’t golf, so it would only be for the adult beverages. I like @colonel_kurtz idea of continuing the after party, whether at the Eddington House or elsewhere. 😁
  15. Yep, on to thunderstorms, and before we know it, summer/fall hurricane tracking!
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