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JimCaruso

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JimCaruso last won the day on October 14

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  1. Tony, can you explain this 90th percentile issue a bit more? I understand the issue of continuity on Monday, but you mentioned this 90th percentile issue on Sunday also. It was on Sunday that the snowfall forecast jumped and the winter storm warnings were issued. Why would forecasts and warnings be issued for a snowfall that (if I am interpreting the 90th percentile issue correctly) even at that time had only a 10% chance of verifying? Not being critical of NWS at all, I am not qualified to do so, I am just trying to understand more about the forecasting process because it interests me as a weather geek, and so that I can better interpret forecasts in the future. I also have a general interest in the concepts of probabilistic vs deterministic forecasts, not only as to meteorology but as to how it transfers to my day job which includes forecasting my company's financial results.
  2. Can I ask for thoughts on what will happen in Lower Bucks? 1pm updated Mt. Holly snow map and Winter Storm Warning both still implying at least 5", but is that just continuity?? Looking at the radar, the trajectory of the bands does not look like they will ever get this far west, especially given that the overall storm is moving away from the area.
  3. Just now starting to snow in Yardley
  4. First winter that I am working just one town away in Yardley, so no longer have an excuse to not go in... ☹️ Because it’s so close, I’m not worried about the drive, but it’s just so much nicer to enjoy a snowstorm from the comfort of home... If nobody else is in, then I have an excuse, but two other people are also from nearby so I doubt the office will be empty...
  5. Mt. Holly seems quite bearish on snowfall in the current forecast, map shows nothing over 1” unless up along and north of I-80
  6. Ended up not having much after all... The Orange Manhattan posted above during the pre-dinner festivities, some wine with dinner (a small glass of Sancerre followed by a small glass of red Zin), and then that was it. Never did have that pumpkin beer or any sort of nightcap. Pretty low-key. I fell asleep really early too.
  7. Never heard from anybody so had to make my own decision 😏 Just had an Orange Manhattan - Buffalo Trace Bourbon, sweet vermouth, and Solerno orange liqueur.
  8. Happy Thanksgiving all! Curious as to beverages of choice on Thanksgiving. I’ve got both white and red wines ready to go for dinner, and may have a pumpkin beer with my pumpkin pie. But still up in the air about what to have during the pre-dinner family socializing period. Thanksgiving is at my house and I’ve got my fully-stocked bar, it’s just a matter of choice and not mixing too many different things. Anything you feel is particularly fitting or traditional for the day? My father-in-law and brother-in-law are here, but neither is a cocktail guy, I think I will foist my Oktoberfest beer on them since it is out of season now 😏 is it bad that I am thinking about this at 7:30am 😜
  9. I got all excited about Schafly when I tried it at the Newtown Beer Festival. When I bought it at the grocery store, the beverage manager also recommended Whole Hog, which I actually like better than Schafly.
  10. This guy and his family were in my back yard in Newtown yesterday morning. Growing up in Queens NYC, you had to go upstate or to the zoo to see anything beyond a bird or a squirrel. For a while it was neat to see this, but now it is getting ridiculous to have so many in a suburban area. They are destroying our landscaping and becoming a safety menace on the roads.
  11. Slept right through the event. The 110 mph wind report in Warminster was only about 10 miles away from me in Newtown. Obviously these types of things are quite isolated and 10 miles is huge in these scenarios, but I imagine things had to still be at least a little interesting in Newtown. Yesterday on the way to work I noticed this telephone pole split in the middle - this is on the Newtown Bypass, right near the I-95 Newtown/Yardley exit (on the Newtown side). EDIT: as I look closer at this picture, it does not look like a break in the middle, it looks like there is actually like a hinge of some sort? Is that possible? I keep looking at it and it’s hard to tell whether it is a break or not...
  12. I went to bed, with the windows open, around 10:30 and only have some vague, hazy, dream-like memories of wind throughout the night, continuing through this morning, so I really have no idea what time it was or whether I heard the arrival of the storm itself. No recollection of hearing rain or thunder. Basically missed the whole thing, if there was even anything noteworthy in Newtown. Liked hearing the wind, not quite as much as hearing rain at night, but I'll take it, even though it breaks up my sleep...
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