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NWS Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Mitchg

  1. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Issued the warning about 8 mins prior as that is my new stomping grounds BGM. Scary stuff for sure and no fatatlities. Likely will be one of the most direct oppertunties to save lifes in my NWS carrer.
  2. Monday the Ec even shows 92 for an 18Z 2M temp at BGM .
  3. Looks better my way if destabilization happens.
  4. Right now I'd say all systems go for a nice weekend. I bet Tony wants another 3-6 of rain for fathers day though ?
  5. That run was pretty close to a bullseye.
  6. Once again modeling too far north.
  7. Or less, HRRR has you around 1/4 inch QPF.
  8. Looks like a flood watch was issued overnight. BWI again as well .
  9. The 12z NAM is even worse than yesterday's run with 2-4 inches over Philly north of the front . Image from Eric Blake twitter.
  10. Come on Tony go 100% 12z NAM .
  11. Meteorological Summer Banter Thread

    If anyone is wondering about a staffing update at WFO Mount Holly it is getting better. The MIC position was advertised and someone should be arriving in the fall/winter. Walt Drag retired but they are going to fill his position this month with that person arriving sometime in the fall/winter as well. My position vacated was already filled along with another entry level with two new hires back in the spring. Normal or close to normal staffing is a possibility by the start of 2019.
  12. All the convection should be in the warm sector. I just think the modeling is displaced too far north due to convective feedback. 12z nam was the worst.
  13. 6/1-6/4 Heavy rain, flash flooding threat

    What's going to come first: Phillies score a run or a dry day?
  14. Memorial Day weekend weather

    I see I'm not the only one awake at this way too early/late hour. Severe looks more meh though. Better get the outdoor holiday stuff done Saturday folks.
  15. Medium - long range tropics

    MJO looks favorable for it as well. EPS have a strong signal with this. Could be more flooding issues around Memorial day if it gets sucked north or a PRE occurs.
  16. Obviously the HRRR is way overdone on CAPE. Not going to see 1000 J/KG in an hour here. Makes that 4500 J/KG over NJ all the more shakier later today.
  17. Got a 26 mph gust and pea size hail with the cluster of the storms along the warm push up here.
  18. Medium - long range tropics

    OP model runs minus the GFS are trying to get something going in the gulf next week. Moisture stream late next week into east.
  19. Trying to find a dry day to forecast in the extended today .
  20. I would think the better chances of enhanced end up further west across western/central PA. Meanwhile 46F here in BGM as we struggle to 50 for a high.
  21. IFR ceilings are really not helpful to get severe going.
  22. Sunday on the op EC went the other quick for you all, looks like the 90 threat went to 50 and rain.
  23. I have an announcement...

    Congrats again!
  24. 56-57 also came after a couple of ninas. Though I could see where this nino falls short. I think some models had this winter as nino at one point.