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NWS Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Mitchg

  1. Supports 2nd week of December thinking for starting to look for a more wintry pattern.
  2. Modeling trended more mizerish with a stronger central and eastern ridge for the 1st week in December. Kruger Hill is punting. The favorable period is going backward as well maybe more like 12/10 now.
  3. First week in December looks to be a total waste of some blocking . Still things reverse to something more favorable by 12/7 on today's modeling. Considering bringing in Kamu Grungier Hill to punt the first week of December away.
  4. Trying to get some snow showers going later Sunday into Monday with the forecast. However, the trend today is warmer and faster .
  5. EPS today have the cold shot early next week then a transition period to start December. However by day 15 we have a good amount of blocking with a trough in the east. While anything before 12/5 would be unlikely around or just after 12/5 might yield something with today's look.
  6. I wouldn't trust much past week 2 now. Only thing I take away is the blocking looks more legit than the past couple of years in general. The week 5-6 period on Monday's weeklies would be several degrees below normal given the 500 but Thursday's weeklies likely will be different. CFS 2 performance is not good in recent weeks as well, modeled blowtorch for this month has not worked out.
  7. Ugh. EST & Pre 5 PM Sunsets Are Back.

    I had a nice break with 5:30 pm sunsets this past weekend, won't get those again till Christmas. Have family on the west side of the Eastern time zone to ease the pain. I noticed the sun starting to go down at 3:30 yesterday .
  8. I'll just take the euro control which buries my car under feet of snow at the airport parking lot between Christmas and New Years. Seriously, these weeklies are flopping around a bit but this run just had a lot of transient things with it and a normal December.
  9. Hopefully a repeat of last Jan where the nw shift due to the ridge brought the snow inland.
  10. don't jinx it or it will start showing on the models.
  11. Potential winter storm threats

    Several members showed a snowfall somewhere the region just after Thanksgiving 00z today was much better than 12z , new members should be out in a hour.
  12. Potential winter storm threats

    End of OP euro run looks interesting. Low turning up the coast with a broad high pressure in the the Great Lakes.
  13. Snow holding steady at around 4 inches in Philly and close to a foot at MPO. Would like to see the numbers increase given the weeklies are going deeper into winter. Weeklies looked like a normal month of December. However, I liked how that trough off the west coast goes away. Heights are to high across most of the east given the ridge shown in the west. I think this run had issues figuring out the trough in the 10-15 day which carried through later in the run. Our main goal should be not to have a torchmas this year .
  14. That matches up with the GFS,CMC ensembles. Euro overdoing - PNA.
  15. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Winter weather advisory for trace freezing rain in the Lehigh valley. Let it snow as the winter headline season is underway!
  16. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    If this winter is a dud we know who to blame. 😉
  17. Better yet he can get into the Nws office up there, I'm sure they could use him to work some MIds.
  18. This guy loved the trend in the EPS past day 10 this morning, i would say more uncertainty than normal with all three GEFS, EPS and Candian having different looks.
  19. Friday/sat am cold blast

    We look at if half the county fell below freezing for 2 hours. Where the warning is up for has not had a "freeze" yet.
  20. Christmas day looks great with a low forming in the southern Rockies and plenty of blocking to keep it coming east and not cut. only 1104 hrs out.
  21. Not working in wxbell for me. Are you able to see more from another source? Nevermind the 7 day mean graphics do work. 850 mb temps are warmer than the 500 mb look would indicate.
  22. Predictions sure to go wrong for tonight. Snow prediction is about the same from Monday's run. Week 1 -3 Week 2 -1 Week 3 0 Week 4 0 Week 5 -1 Week 6 0
  23. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    No one by a snowblower it's very bad luck.
  24. Another wicked cold shot around day 10. Like the northerly flow off the Great Lakes, that gets lake effect and upslope snow going for my pre T-day trip in KY.