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Mitchg

NWS Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Mitchg

  1. A few members do support this but take the accumulating snow through the Apps. Half of the EPS look OTS. 06Z GFS had the same idea as the op EC but was higher with dewpoints and thus rain. Dewpoints are around 20 to start on the OP EC so snow through Tony's favorite dynamical cooling is possible. Dewpoints of 30 in advance won't cut it. That was a big key in Oct 2011. Though almost better if this one went inland given October snowstorms generally yield poor winters along the east coast.
  2. Thursday may be a darkhorse candidate for you all if that vort max spawns a low on the coast. I would say a long shot though.
  3. Mitchg

    Eagles adding players for Non - playoff push?

    Americas game of the week aka worst coaching and refs in America.
  4. I suspect weeks 3 through 6 would be colder if that 500 pattern verified. As good as possibile with a quick recovery from the mid month thaw.
  5. It can start Sunday night for you and 7:01 am Monday here right after my last mid that week .
  6. Nope. Cut baby cut to just south of KPIT then secondary off ACY. 26 inches so far and climbing.
  7. The High hung on and kicked it OTS.
  8. CMC much stronger with a Banana high, suppressed for all not just BGM.
  9. High position not good on the 12Z GFS for you all even might be bad my way even.
  10. Canadian lost the Wednesday system doh. If it was just GFS would likely be the issue of the GFS losing a storm at 5 days out. ICON still has it.
  11. Just would think a NW trend idea for the 5th has to come into play also just the idea of maintaining a storm threat for the 8th-9th is good enough this far out.
  12. Weeklies were awful from mid month on. 2002-2003 is my main analog still, mid to late December looks rough but hopefully the weeklies are underoing the mjo by years end.
  13. Early next week went from cutter to flat quick. Would not be surprised if it made a comeback. EPS like the day 8 to 10 threat a lot with a good setup.
  14. The WEFS and Canadian are not as western trough as the EPS. Besides I think the wave of low pressure late next week has some prospects with inland favored. Definitely not time for panic over one cruddy EPS run. OF course easier said up this way with below zero temps tonight and 8 inch snow depth.
  15. Yeah, warm nose may make it up for a few hours, but 6 inches is doable.
  16. EPS ars going anywhere from north of my area to DC with snow swaths Friday.
  17. The GEFS are already starting to form a glacier of modeled snow that doesn't fall. 00z GEFS have 8.5 inches at KBGM by the 20th .
  18. CANSIPS is out: Looks like an east coast storm track for the winter as a whole. December starts out warm with a ridge over the northern plains and a small hint of a SE trough. Blocking gradually builds later on in the winter. Very good look for February where I might be smoking cirrus while snowstorms track up I-95.
  19. Even if this was winter we would be having issues all the way through BGM.
  20. The euro is a furnace up here as well. If that low goes inland BL is fried and any mix threat dies with that track. Models will likely correct to a warmer BL as well.
  21. Mitchg

    Meteorological Fall Banter Thread

    Both.
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