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Mitchg

NWS Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Mitchg

  1. 10-15 day would be a pretty good pattern to start January. Should be first decent cold shot of the season to start off October.
  2. I don't want to see the EC QPF map from VA.
  3. Eagles vs Falcons - Rematch - it starts tonight

    D-line going to eat Ryan Fitzpatrick for breakfast next week.
  4. Medium - long range tropics

    Yes, ridging definitely has trended stronger. EPS starting to key on northern FL to the outer banks. not any members really bring it north of the Outer Banks anymore.
  5. Medium - long range tropics

    Lets not forget a weaker Florence also contributes to the west shift the past 24 hrs.
  6. Medium - long range tropics

    06Z GFS would be tidal flooding from he double L. Worst possible track for mid-Atlantic up the Chesapeake. Quite a few EPS members shifting even further S to even GA and FL.
  7. Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts

    What a shocker, saw they have the deep south -5 for temps and even higher for above normal snow. Bold.
  8. Really? Everything has been so soaked and flooded here in BGM land. Seriouly though it looks like Gordon will bring a slug of rain through sometime later Sunday into Monday. Depends on the inland western curve and the high pressure system in Canada.
  9. Medium - long range tropics

    EPS are back west again with Florence.
  10. Early look factoring in neutral to week nino, PDO and QBO states.
  11. I think it will continue through December with the warm water off the east coast. Early in the game though on winter outlook.
  12. HRRR Experimental Smoke Model

    Pretty cool model data. Last week while hiking in the Catskills you could the faintest hint of smoke in the sky. All of it has coming east for some time now.
  13. End of the week looks like a nice break for waterlogged meteorologists.
  14. A warm pool has developed south of AK again weaker but similar to 2013-14. However, I would pump the breaks rather quick here. Goals still for Warmer water 3.4 than 1.2 with hopefully sneaking up to a weak to moderate nino.
  15. Hoping for a stronger ridge to keep the rain away on my days off. I'm drowning.
  16. This weekend is as close as tropical without being tropical.
  17. This weekend bears watching right off the coast for something subtropical. I can hear Dean looking at the EC and say that's not happening.
  18. Medium - long range tropics

    An uptick of EPS members showing a subtropical storm tracking along the coast or hooking inland early next week. Landfalls anywhere from the Carolinas to Cape cod. A cluster in NJ/NYC area as well.
  19. Medium - long range tropics

    Euro and some EPS members going for a subtropical storm next weekend making a Sandy type hook as well on the OP.
  20. Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Chris

    Yup, Mine along with Kristin. MIC panel once again was very thin from what I heard, so a third time advertising it wouldn't be a shocker.
  21. Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Chris

    Yes, the 2 year vacant MIC, 2 lead forecasters, OPL and a entry level with Lance leaving for Tallahassee. However, the MIC along with the entry level and a lead forecaster have been advertised. Maybe Joe can get two picks off the lead vacancy. OPL will never be filled.
  22. Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Chris

    That has litterally been the weather the last 7 days here and maybe the next 7. I can only spend so much time on projects at work lol.
  23. Tropical Storm/Hurricane? Chris

    A few ensembles do have an east coast hit on both the GEFS and EPS with the most likely spot being Cape Cod. A Predecessor rainfall event would be a bigger concern with the front coming down mid-week. Odds for either I would say fairly low being still 5 days away.
  24. Euro was a mizer December then much more to our liking in Jan.
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