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NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on December 25 2016

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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    Mount Holly, NJ

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  1. Saw the individual monthly images through January with the new JMA. December had a nice trough over the central and east which pulled back some in Jan.
  2. still not negative though may tick back upward a touch but a nuetral pdo may hold for the winter.
  3. Analog package numbers: Warmer than normal each month December through March, + 1.7 above normal for the winter. Snowfall is 21.1.
  4. The 00z GFS is for the golf outing. Seriously though I hope everyone has a great time and I wish I was in the area to stop by ( will be in KY for a long weekend).
  5. Nate Related Rain, Thunder, Etc Give Tom QPF

    Putting the mid crew at nws mount holly to sleep.
  6. 07-08 :was borderline strong nina which turned from east based to central ( most of the modeling has this). PDO was also weak negative with the same QBO phase. 11-12: Was a weak to moderate nina, PDO was weak negative and the QBO is a close match. This unfortunately is a good fit. If it eases things a bit, I doubt we get the snowstorm at the end of the month like 2011.
  7. The mizer's favorite analog for this upcoming winter along with 11-12. Looking at the records for today a bunch of them were in 2007. However, the PDO isn't as cold and that was a strong nina. Still it makes my cut.
  8. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Wouldn't be shocked if Georgetown,DE makes a run toward 90 today. 925+10 gets 86, while mos guidance is stuck back at 83 thinking it's October.
  9. Maybe the last week of the month things improve. Another heat surge likely next weekend and just beyond. That day 8 cold front may have a little more gusto with it.
  10. Nina stays east based till March on the CFS, thus colder.
  11. Hurricane Nate in Gulf

    EPS have gone back to the east a bit. Mean qpf axis of 1-2 inches highest still just north and west.
  12. Hurricane Nate in Gulf

    Heading into ec, models looking wet with the 00z cycle for Monday.
  13. Seeing the ridge strengthen trend with this upcoming event: My Brownsville-Miami day 7 track rule will be full go to look for a snow event. Any track north of that at day 7 will be a cutter.
  14. The CANSIPS turns in it into a central based nina so the output matches what it does with the tropical pac SST. Still Dec/Jan not horrid but not great either. Heatmizer loves February in nina winters.
  15. Hurricane Nate in Gulf

    That could easily happen and wouldn't be surprised to see the SE ridge trend even slightly stronger still. Hope Tony hasn't spent his check from Wegman's yet. None of the fronts on the EC have anything much to break it down.