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Mitchg

NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on June 26 2018

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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    Endicott, NY

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  1. This is too far northwest on average now with the modeling. The UK is off to a good start this cooler season. Too bad no one else uses it here. Where did you get that UK precip map?
  2. Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited.
  3. More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north.
  4. Like the GFS well to the south late week, exactly where you want it.
  5. How did you know I'm lurking in the shadows? Yeah, The EPS and surprisingly the GEFS are showing the snow threat here. Not much margin of error for a northward shift though. A few GEFS members take the snow through the Philly area but not many. Looks darn cold late next week. Hope everyone is doing well.
  6. convective feedback forced the low track further south and robbed moisture from coming north.
  7. 00z GFS had massive amounts of convective feedback over the southeast. Would be highly skeptical here. Actually not in BGM and might not be back for the storm. Currently have flights booked for Sunday afternoon with an arrival in BGM at 5:30 pm .
  8. NAM is a very aggressive outlier folks. It will crash and burn on this. Modeling was way too high with this current event and QPF.
  9. Well, another BGM to ALY to Maine special? I went less than 10:1 through a good portion of the event even up here on Tuesday. Would suspect dynamical cooling works quick here with changeover to snow but your ground temps will be much warmer than here.
  10. I feel for you all. The pattern in the 7-15 looks horrid now, cutter city. I suspect the MJO is finally winning out for a time in the grinchy phases. Models look like they are picking up on a phase 6/7 for the first week of Feb. Once again I look like a good spot Tuesday night then whatever it late next week is suppressed to the south. I'd say the first half of February is now above normal with a few weeks of opportunity from the middle of Feb into Mar as the MJO goes into 8,1,2,3. We got lucky this week the strat dominated a phase 5/6. The worst Philly could finish (assuming no measurable snow) through the end of Feb would be the 8th least snowiest meteorological winter. 2011-12 had 3.7 inches for the whole winter ( Dec-Feb).
  11. Deep south could get two snows while you all get missed both north and south, 😢 in the next 10 days,
  12. Definitely not griping now given how Tue-Wed is looking up here.
  13. Cutter with rain -10 degrees cutter with more rain -10 degrees rinse and repeat for the next 10 days. My snowpack is starting to melt now .
  14. Hello neighbor, if you are just here for snow Ithica looks like a good spot.
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