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NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on June 26

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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    Endicott, NY

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  1. NAO looks more supportive today. Archambault.
  2. Mitchg

    Temps/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Second trace snow event already this year.
  3. A few members do support this but take the accumulating snow through the Apps. Half of the EPS look OTS. 06Z GFS had the same idea as the op EC but was higher with dewpoints and thus rain. Dewpoints are around 20 to start on the OP EC so snow through Tony's favorite dynamical cooling is possible. Dewpoints of 30 in advance won't cut it. That was a big key in Oct 2011. Though almost better if this one went inland given October snowstorms generally yield poor winters along the east coast.
  4. The NOAA outlook uses primarily US based models which are really warm now. All the other seasonal models are quite a bit colder with a nice Jan/Feb.
  5. Do not have any real gripes yet about how things look heading into winter. We have a winter outlook for partner groups etc. It shows a so so december but goes cold and snowy for most of the winter. Big time blocking. East coast storm track.
  6. I look at this and would have quite a few concerns if this was the current SST. The cold water south of AK promotes the wrong EPO phase, nino is east based whuch promotes the grinchy phases of the MJO in winter etc. Our current setup is reverse in some aspects, south of AK the main example. Remember 13-14 was a neg EPO on steriods in large part due to the warmth in that area.
  7. Looks like a bit over .1C for this week on the average. However, three months of .1 seems odd when the water has been slowly warming.
  8. 10-15 day would be a pretty good pattern to start January. Should be first decent cold shot of the season to start off October.
  9. I don't want to see the EC QPF map from VA.
  10. Mitchg

    Eagles vs Falcons - Rematch - it starts tonight

    D-line going to eat Ryan Fitzpatrick for breakfast next week.
  11. Mitchg

    Medium - long range tropics

    Yes, ridging definitely has trended stronger. EPS starting to key on northern FL to the outer banks. not any members really bring it north of the Outer Banks anymore.
  12. Mitchg

    Medium - long range tropics

    Lets not forget a weaker Florence also contributes to the west shift the past 24 hrs.
  13. Mitchg

    Medium - long range tropics

    06Z GFS would be tidal flooding from he double L. Worst possible track for mid-Atlantic up the Chesapeake. Quite a few EPS members shifting even further S to even GA and FL.
  14. Mitchg

    Winter 2018/2019 Professional Met Forecasts

    What a shocker, saw they have the deep south -5 for temps and even higher for above normal snow. Bold.
  15. Really? Everything has been so soaked and flooded here in BGM land. Seriouly though it looks like Gordon will bring a slug of rain through sometime later Sunday into Monday. Depends on the inland western curve and the high pressure system in Canada.