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Mitchg

NWS Meteorologist
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Mitchg last won the day on June 26 2018

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About Mitchg

  • Birthday 12/18/1986

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  1. philly is still .3 short of 31-32 mark for the least snowiest Nov-Apr. only T in meteorological winter so far.
  2. Overall good, I'd want the ridge a little further west in Canada and the ridge from Europe to move into Greenland which would pinch the PV into Hudson bay.
  3. Yup, QPF decreasing due to dry air in front and the models are catching on to mid-level warming. Chipping away at potential snow from both ends.
  4. Probably would be another cutter with the surface high in MI that would move east and continue to pump up heights.
  5. models have been painting a QPF min here for a few days as the primary low transfers to the coast.
  6. Yup, was just going to comment the QPF has been decreasing the past few runs. Some mighty dry ahead of this good in terms of cooling things bad in terms of moisture amount. I do think this is at least moderate snow for a few hours in most interior places.
  7. I remember one big storm a few years back had 49 members 12+ for most of the area 24 hrs out, end result was much closer to 0.
  8. That is modeled now as a potential major ice threat here. Some model output has 2-3 QPF here as freezing rain. Good thing it's day6.
  9. A look at a few things from my initial winter impressions 1. The MJO just simply sucks. After a time in 6/7 it's into the COD before coming out again in 5 around day 12. That has to go through 6 and 7 again. This double loop through heat mizer land wasn't in my thinking for the winter that the east would begin to turn around a bit after New Years. With the double loop, January should be dominated by the eastern ridge in terms of the MJO. 2. QBO has been slow to turn around and thus little help from the strat, while minor warming pockets are showing up, no SSW is in the cards through day 15. I had originally thought the strat warm event would be occurring by now. 3. The PV is located closer to north America with some window of it into Siberia as well. Europe's winter is done and never even started being farther from the PV. For us, turnaround of the MJO into 8,1,2 ( February) should shuffle things up a bit. Maybe some strat response in February as well, though that would delay spring.
  10. My bold prediction is the Jan 8 timeframe ends up the only legit shot in Jan. .
  11. Looked good Thursday totally different. changes at day 15 from 00z to 12z run with the of location of lowest heights this set. They have gone downhill in terms of Any consistancy. Doubt either version is right.
  12. The EC Weeklies have been all over the place as usual but tonight's run would be a nice transition by Mid-Jan, - EPO, -AO, --NAO combo.
  13. Only an inch followed by ice all the way up here. Clunker of an event.
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