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mike19046

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  1. Hi all, long time lurker, first time poster. I'm so grateful to all of you for the knowledge I've gained here. I'm still not grasping all of the nuances, but the discussions of global pattern dynamics are fascinating. My kids (22, 20, 16) started to catch on in recent years that I have some 'spidey sense' for what's gonna happen with the weather over the next week or two, thanks to this site and also the brilliant Don Sutherland over at American, and so I've been doing my best to try and explain the basics to them so they get bitten by the bug too. Y'all are the best. To bring this back to relevance, I'll add here that I suspected heading into winter that we were in for more cold than this, because I saw the mature trees in the area hanging on to their leaves longer. In The Secret Life of Trees by Peter Wohlleben he talks about how costly energy-wise it is for trees to make new chlorophyll, so they try to hang on to what they've got and reuse it from year to year. The older trees tend to be conservative in pulling it back out of the leaves and into storage before deep freezes arrive and separate the leaves from the trees. Younger trees are more reckless about leaving the chlorophyll out longer and taking a risk. It seemed this autumn like the older trees kept their leaves for about two weeks longer than usual, which made me wonder if they were using the warm Sep/Oct weather to make and store more energy for what they expected to be a harsh winter. I don't publish LR outlooks and snow total forecasts here yet - the disease hasn't progressed that far, lol - but I did buy extra ice melt. So the Feb '14 parallels resonate with me just as a hunch... maybe not delivering the big snowfall totals but a battleground on the warm/cold setup line and ice, ice baby. Wandering Barney PV stumbles north for a bit, we're on the line, we get the ice, and then Barney comes back to lock it in. Not my personal favorite winter scenario but it would make sense especially if the Dec/Jan Pacific dynamics are breaking down now. Now my n00b question: Where can I learn more about climo/sun angle rebound in February and onward? I've noticed I start using the AC in the car sometimes because of greenhouse effect under the glass by the beginning of March, and everybody here talks about how hard it is to get above normal snow accumulation past a certain point. Is there a good primer, some reference papers, and/or discussion of how climo assumptions have changed in the post-1980 period? Much obliged.
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