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Everything posted by PWAwx

  1. Gonna see what happens when the next MJO takes off. Perhaps a repeat of this weather in 3-4 weeks?
  2. The MJO has been pretty active as it moves through the Pac. Most of the forecasts show a new impulse in the IO through the beginning of the month, and once that propagates, can be the nail in the coffin to the Nino. That being said, ENSO phase states can have lag effects, so Nino-like tilt to the global environment may last for a while. Enhanced E. Pac jet certainly a staple of that type of activity, which is what we are seeing. But we also currently have a pretty strong MJO wave moving eastward, so that explains that. Minimal upwelling of warm waters in the E. Pac. So the equatorial SSTs seem unaffected.
  3. Nothing more challenging than long range forecasts! I think we have an interesting some ahead with the state of the El-Nino and tropical activity. All the analogs next two weeks suggest warmth to end the month. And it could last longer.
  4. Hello all, long time lurker on some of the previous forums decided to chime in and see how it goes!! Tropics are warming up with two areas of interest. One to the SE of the Bahamas which may not lead to much but has been given an orange medium designation by the NHC for further development out to sea and another area deep in the GoM which may develop later this week. With El-Nino decaying, its possible we could be in for a more active season than first anticipated!
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