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ACwx

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ACwx last won the day on April 15 2019

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  1. Not sure if anyone knew of this tool, but Dr. Barb Mayes Bousted developed a system several years ago to calculate how severe a winter has really been. It's called the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI). You can go to this site (https://mrcc.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp) and look at the current index for 52 locations around the country, including Philly. From there you can see how this winter has really shaped up to past years, as seen in the picture below. You can also get a data pull of AWSSI data for past years dating back to 1950, plus a lot more - there's a ton of data to play around with if you keep looking around the site. The index is basically calculated from high and low temperatures, snowfall, and snow depth. There's a detailed table on the site with thresholds and explanations of the 5 categories of the index. Long story short, even all these calculations agree we're pretty close to one of the weakest winters in the last 70 years with 1997-98, 2001-02, and 2011-12 being very close. Interestingly, despite not having any snow, 1972-73 ranked a decent bit higher than this winter thanks to colder low temperatures.
  2. There was mention of the dynamical models sniffing out the overall pattern for this winter. Are the dynamical models generally reliable for overall winter patterns? Seems like there's been a lot more reliance on analogs instead over the past several years, but I think after this winter we'll have to go back to the drawing board.
  3. What a vicious air mass we were coming out of at this time 5 years ago. Might be a long long time before PHL sees a low of 2 or colder again.
  4. I know Goes-16 has only been around for a couple years, but I can't remember seeing African desert sand wrap up into a storm so perfectly before
  5. Not stirring up false hope here, but I'm trying to figure out why the HRRR is showing this minor band of show stretching across our region even as the storm misses. It's shown up on several recent runs.
  6. Month-to-date, overnight lows have averaged 36.3 degrees (compared to the normal of 27.7). This air mass will put a dent in that, but the monthly record is a 34.9 degree average for overnight lows, so that may be another inept record falling in a few weeks.
  7. ACwx

    Winter nostalgia

    Oh man, the BlackBerry. I remember leading up to the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard, I was at a family gathering on Christmas night, and kept refreshing the NWS discussion on my BlackBerry as the forecast went from like 2-4" earlier in the day up to 10-20" by the time everyone was eating dinner. They all had shocked looks on their faces as I kept updating them
  8. ACwx

    Winter nostalgia

    Since the window for snow this season is closing further and further, to help keep us snow lovers away from the ledge I figured it might be a good idea to start a thread where we talk about our favorite winter memories. It could be a particular storm, an intense blast of cold air, or any kind of wintry memory that comes to mind. Hopefully this thread will take away from the sting (read: boredom) of how this winter has gone. For me, I've lived through a fair number of major storms (although I was only 1 during the '96 blizzard), but the winter memory that sticks out most to me was from 2015 when an intense snow squall as part of an arctic front moved through Penn State while I was still there. A bunch of other meteo kids saw it approaching on radar, so we all decided to go on the roof of the weather building and ride it out. If you look hard in the first picture you can actually see somewhat of a shelf cloud trying to form, first time I've ever seen that outside of spring / summer. When it arrived it brought easily the worst whiteout conditions I've ever experienced. The roof was maybe only 100 feet off the ground, but when I looked over the edge I couldn't see anything but white. Winds had to be at least 40-50mph. It took a solid 20 minutes for everything to calm down too, it wasn't one of those quick 5-10 minute squalls. Definitely the most adrenaline I've had in a winter event.
  9. Last 4 GFS runs. Even Barney, like everything else this winter, is trending weaker and less exciting overall. Yes cold is exciting lol
  10. One of the best ways I've seen this season summed up.
  11. Full sunshine this morning, and there are robins chirping right outside the house. I hate to say it so soon, but on mornings like this, I'm ready for Spring.
  12. Storm's wrapping up very nicely on satellite, neat to see the plume of moisture stretch from the Yucatan peninsula all the way up then all the way across the Atlantic
  13. Currently about 24,000 NJ customers without power. There are some cool interactive maps on NJ.com, and I noticed a few towns with nearly 100% power outages
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