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Mitchnick

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Mitchnick last won the day on October 3

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    2 Miles N of BWI

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  1. I recall Cohen saying that it was the "rate of increase" of snow cover over the month that was important. Of course, I can't remember if that was just him trying to cover his arse in a prior year when raw snow cover failed.
  2. I don't know. Based on these maps from 10/18, we're way above normal with snow cover in Canada and Siberia ain't that far from normal. And with 13 days left in the month could easily end up AN. That's if you even think it matters. https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=291&ui_set=2
  3. Guess the concern from the end of the last run was a weenie head fake. Almost time for me to decide on which pay site I want to choose. Leaning Wxbell, but would like to see if Accuwx has started adding Eps maps similar to Wxbell. I always liked the Euro skewts Accuwx offered but they were sorely lacking wrt the eps stuff of Wxbell.
  4. Yikes! Weenies have to be fair too? In that case, I should have prefaced the post that I was assuming conditions in the next 2 months to follow consensus of Enso progs. And "absolutely", 15/16 is out the window as well.
  5. Ben Noll has posted the Ukie 500mb monthly anomalies on his twitter feed this morning if you're interested. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^profile%3ABenNollWeather&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bennollweather.com%2F
  6. We can toss those 2 clunkers....I think. Definitely 97/98 Nino per top link below (12/30/97). 06/07 is closer to current event, but warmth seems more eastern PAC vs. western PAC as current event is unfolding. Also, 06/07 was near and heading toward a solar minimum, but would not bottom out until 09/10 period. Also, QBO was solidly West at the start of the 06/07 season and ended weak west in 3/07. So there are enough differences with 06/07 despite Enso being closer to current event. One other note is the extremely cold pool in the Gulf of Alaska on 12/30/06 (per bottom link below) vs. current warmth. So that would be my weenie analysis/denial. lol
  7. It's been doing that for a while, which is why (along with persistence) I mentioned in one of my earlier posts that I thought we'd have another decent March. Unfortunately, if one lives and dies by the CFS2 (no, no, I am not referring to me!), DEC-JAN temps ain't so hot.....errr, maybe they are hot, and that's why I don't like them. BUT, CFS2 has been pretty consistent with AN precip DEC-MAR, and for our region, especially imby, that will usually lead to wintry events. Maybe not all snow, but numerous snow----->slop/rain events. OTOH, FEB temps are definitely workable for more all snow events when considered in light of its AN precip forecast. In that regard, I think the CFS2 is as close as the CFS2 can get at this range with concurring with the Euro and Ukmet snow/seasonal forecasts. One thing I'm really liking about this winter, assuming the Nino can get to +1C or better, is the likelihood of multiple events over a few days. As much as we're all sick of the rain, seeing back-to-back, or near back-to-back, precip rain events of late has me thinking we should see at least one back-to-back decent snow events this year. Today's train of moisture as depicted on the sat link below, although staying south of us this time, is the kind of stuff I can envision with a cooperative Nino this winter, with multiple disturbances over a few days dumping on us. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/CONUS_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12
  8. Am I correct that that is yesterday's Euro weeklies run?
  9. I could try to BS my way through that, but I won't try. Lol So the direct answer to your question is "no." BUT, what gives me great hope AND expectations of a great season in the M.A., is that the seasonal models worth a darn (admittedly not saying a whole lot but nonetheless) that show BN temps and AN snows are consistent with a weak/moderate Nino during a solar minimum, a weak east to shifting west QBO, all following a very wet summer/fall in the East. Prolly a few more things, but I'll hold off until it gets in November. I will say this, however, and this goes for BWI only, if we see snow in November, and not necessarily accumulating snow either, that really bodes well for the winter. And the way the mediun/longer range guidance is moving, I'm very encouraged.
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