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Mitchnick

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Mitchnick last won the day on October 3

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    2 Miles N of BWI

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  1. I stopped posting the other day out of disgust. Terrible luck imby ever since the 1/16 blizzard. Anyway, I thought this was neat. Pic from Skyline Drive in Virginia facing nw. It's around 3,000' asl. You can see the low clouds starting to gather close by but in the distant nw, partly sunny skies. Brutal cutoff. Link and pic for posterity. https://www.nps.gov/customcf/webcam/dsp_webcam_image.cfm?id=81B46B71-1DD8-B71B-0B55074571E08B1E
  2. Put this waver vapor pic in motion and you can clearly see the hammer coming down from Canada to crush our hopes. Brutal... http://weather.unisys.com/current-weather?source=1&plot=149&region=us
  3. Definitely came north this run. Confluence retreats quicker and 250mb winds back with a more northerly component. Too little, too late......tbd
  4. Man, that's close https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=temp_adv_fgen_700&runtime=2018120618&fh=78
  5. Hey, 18Z NAM is showing the 250mb winds backing to the NNE at 66 hrs. That trajectory was NOT on any recent prior runs. Just saying.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2018120618&fh=66
  6. True dat, but makes a noticeable shift to the NE between hours 81 & 84.
  7. Nam at 63 hrs has a closed low west of the Mississippi. Under DT's tried and true rules, that storm normally cuts to our west....let's see.
  8. If you toggle this 45 hr off the 32k Nam between current and the prior run, heights in Eastern Canada have all pulled north this run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=namer&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2018120600&fh=45
  9. Shhhh...say a quiet prayer. 0z Nam now rolling in.
  10. My biggest fear with this being a whiff is pattern memory. A whiff like tge one being advertised is eerily reminiscent of the winter of 72/73 where 3 storms that generated winter storm watches or warnings all missed Bwi to the south. Bwi reporyed 1" that winter and places like Richmond, Lynchburg and Roanoke all had AN snowfall. Verrry painful...life altering!
  11. Ha! That's been my method for years as well. Lol
  12. You know somebody who didn't get the day off is sitting there playing tic-tac-toe on his keyboard.
  13. Great. I expect server issues at a McDonalds or Wendys, not at ncep!
  14. I haven't been interested in the Nam in forever. But tonight when I am, it hasn't initialized at any site. Bad omen methinks. Lol
  15. Not me because I got screwed by it. But what I am noticing is how the Gem is really relaxing the 5h low/confluence around the 50/50 low (I'll call it.) The Gem has always had a history of juicing storms up and bringing them further north and/or inland. Does the Gem get additional information from Canadian reporting stations? Idk, just wondering what, if any, edge it may have over data in in Canada. Also, wasn't there a fairly recent upgrade to the Gem? I recall reading that somewhere this fall. Swear I read that.
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