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Mitchnick

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Mitchnick last won the day on October 3 2018

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    2 Miles N of BWI

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  1. The political arm of the met society needs to deal with this bias.
  2. The political arm of the met society needs to deal with this bias.
  3. Weeklies this winter have been only half bad. They got every forecasted torch right and only missed every cold/trough in the east w/-Nao forecast.
  4. Good to hear because at my age, I know how to shuffle.
  5. Idk, it just seems like the Euro does not lead the pack of models like the old days. Within 48 hours even, it has not been stellar down here this winter with its snow progs. I still remember when the current version of it was being tested in 1/16 and an 0Z run came in a few days out way weaker than all other modeling, including the old Euro. Everyone imby panicked, but then it came back to its senses on the next run. Seems to have too many blips vs. the old version. At least the weeklies have done well this year! 💔
  6. Euro very different from GFS and Ukie. I have so little faith in this version of the Euro. The old one was money but not this one imho. Anyway, in case you didn't see it, here's the Ukie snow map before changeover. Ukie has been showing a very similar map now for 3 or 4 runs fwiw.
  7. Well, sign me up for phase 8. Sooner the better. I can spend this week looking at obx webcams of my favorite spots that will likely be well into the 60's.
  8. I know you've mentioned that before but the area of interest at this point is 7+ days so I figured any "seemingly" good news is worth posting. Lol
  9. I think GEFS will hop on board the EPS train this time in light of GEFS' updated MJO forecast. The EPS are now in the promised land by the end of their run, and appear to be 1-3 days ahead of where the GEFS are going.
  10. Fwiw, GEFS finally gets into Phase 8 per the RMM forecast (as flawed as it may be.)
  11. Saying a model forecast busted horribly is not holding it as gospel. It's calling a spade a spade. Heck, scores are kept on model forcasts so I don't think it's unreasonable to mention when they fail. I would not hesitate to give it high marks if it was accurate. But to be fair, however, the Euro monthlies have sucked too! Lol But I jest. Been a tough winter for all the long range models, but the insistence of the Euro weeklies to go with the -Nao without success so far is noteworthy. I would add that no hints of a -Pna adds to the the fail by missing both Pacific and the Atlantic.
  12. Ensembles have been signalling this period, but it would be nice if we could get the NAO to cooperate and push that Midwest beast further south. With all the runs of the weeklies advertising a -Nao, it would be nice to get it when we need it. In fact, looking at the weeklies thread and your description going back to 1/17, we should have a +PNA and -ao and -Nao by now. Big time fail on weeklies wrt Pna and blocking in the means. And I mean BIG!
  13. November's event, in retrospect, did more damage to the weenie psyche than could have been imagined at the time. And based on many professional met forecasts, them too. Lol Whenever I hear someone use the word mojo nowadays, I just cringe.
  14. Hard to get too excited if that's a prerequisite looking at these.
  15. 18z Fv3 Day 14 then 16 Remind me again. ..wasn't it the Gfs suite that brought back to cold faster at the beginning of the month and turned out to be correct with the Euro suite following eventually? I believe it was.
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