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phlwx

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phlwx last won the day on February 20

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About phlwx

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    Skywarn #MJP-046

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    Lewes, DE

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  1. That 80's Club, 2017 Edition

    Agree.
  2. That 80's Club, 2017 Edition

    82 today in Lewes.
  3. Warm air's gonna do what warm air's gonna do. That said, the fact that those maps count sleet at 10:1 is the lolz and should automatically dq them from being used. It's almost as bad as the time WxBell's maps showed snow in South Carolina with +3 850's. I'm not worried about the forecasting stuff being wrong but those maps are relied on way too much and are pretty much garbage regardless of source...but meteorologists who know better still use them.
  4. So, why use them when their value is garbage in marginal setups? More important, why peddle them to the public when they are inaccurate other than allowing some weenie to get his fix?
  5. The Euro had 546 thickness to PHL on Sunday night. It was pretty clear it was going to be warm aloft at times and going to sleet. But a lot of those damn maps still count sleet at 10:1. C'mon.
  6. RE: Model generated - a tire fire is a good place. I have no beef with forecasters drawing a snow map if that's their thing. It's more the WxBell/SV sh*t I'm talking about.
  7. I really think there needs to be stronger and harder and more painful noise dropped by professional meteorologists against using model generated snow maps. A guy who is paid to forecast can like them and get off to a snow map with all the ratioz...just don't f**king use them in social bandwidth (TV, twitter, Facebook) and add more hype to what's already a hot mess of broadcasting in the 21st Century. As much as the problem isn't going away, saying it's not going away basically is allowing the snake oil agents of weather to continue to run amok. The weather community has gotta start making some real noise on some of this stuff. Those maps have been trash for years.
  8. 7" of sneet in Rofo. Lewes had about 3.25" of rain per DEOS. Both are pretty damn miserable lol
  9. I'm going to throw a hot take out there and start the discussion, based on a comment that I made in the obs thread. I have a few opinions on meteorology in general right now. 1) While modeling in general is much better than 25 years ago, we are still having problems with exacts and specifics in a small geographic area. I'm not sure that will ever 100% improve given chaos theory and resolution unless you shrink resolution down to 1km or some ridiculous number like that...even then, I think we're going to have problems in model world with ptype because of temperature profiles in the atmosphere, etc. I don't think this storm was a bust in the sense that the storm developed pretty much as advertised. Were forecasts wrong? Absolutely. We could throw more money at modeling and it may improve a few aspects of things but by and large I think rain/snow/sleet line misfires are going to be a part of the problem with forecasting forever. 2) Snow maps are stupid. We (collective community) need to stop taking them as gospel, especially in marginal events. And I think meteorologists or vendors who peddle them out simply to get weenies to sign up at $13/month or to get follows, etc. are probably the worst for meteorological discourse right now. 3) Communication of impacts matters much more than "how much for?" discussion but I don't think the meteorological community and public have it in them to switch gears from numbers and colors on a map to reading a list of how fooked they are or aren't. I'm not sure how this can change but I think it needs to. It's like Saffir-Simpson and hurricanes - it's a garbage scale and most smart weather people know that but meteorologists who know better still use it and talk about "upgrades" and "downgrades" because of a wind speed change. How do we (weather community) do a better job of getting people out of that habit (how much for) and into "how bad is it gonna be"
  10. 6" of snow + sleet in Royersford.
  11. I just went out to poke at the sidewalk. Never seen it sleet this hard or with pellets that big before...even more intense than March 07.
  12. sleet so hard in Rofo.
  13. Beautiful looking storm. Can't wait for the vis shots later.
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