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BeerandWXTogether last won the day on April 11

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About BeerandWXTogether

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    Skywarn #MJP-046

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    Lewes, DE

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  1. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    When TV types are out in the middle of a hurricane, they should queue up some porn music since they're peddling some good ol' fashioned disaster porn coverage today.
  2. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    The CMC's scenario is probably worst case for the Outer Banks and probably will result in Isabel-level impacts in the Tidewater. That's not a pretty picture. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_Hurricane_Isabel_in_Virginia Plopping a 120 mph cane into NC before a stall is probably worse from a population impact but a 3-4 day stall off of Hatteras is probably going to wipe out a couple of islands completely and result in several years worth of damage in the rest of the Outer Banks.
  3. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    Going to Tony's points about the Outer Banks, it reminds me a bit of Ophelia back in '05 (different track, obviously) but that stall out and spin around offshore if the GFS and CMC are to be believed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Ophelia_(2005) (in case you can't recall what it did) That might be the least crappy scenario on the board for everyone inland but it won't be a pretty situation for everyone in the Tidewater and down into the Outer Banks at all. And, yeah, this kind of scenario will be a major PITA for the Tidewater area as well (a couple of million people down there).
  4. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    I'm not sure which stall scenario sucks less at this point. Having Florence off of the coast by 50 or 100 miles pretty much makes the Outer Banks a sitting duck for going underwater for a few days if not longer (and a couple of the islands probably go buh bye) and will probably pummel the hell out of the Tidewater as well. Bringing it inland brings the "underwater" to people inland and brings 100 mph winds to wherever Florence plops inland. Neither scenario is pretty at this point.
  5. Hurricane Florence a hit or a punt?

    Euro modeled rain over the next 10. Yikes for VA, NC, and Rayworld. If it does stall inland, might as well drop the Harvey comp.
  6. The "Official" what are you drinking thread

    Current situ on a 55 degree day.
  7. The "Official" what are you drinking thread

    Anyone been to this? https://www.dewpointbrewing.com/
  8. APR 14-16 OBS - Summer to Shank to Swamp

    1.5" of rain here last night/this AM. Top wind gust of 40 with the squall.
  9. The "Official" what are you drinking thread

    Since the weather sucks outside today, here's the current setup.
  10. APR 14-16 OBS - Summer to Shank to Swamp

    83 yesterday here. Woke up to 50ish. Winds picked up while on my run this morning (ugh). It's about 45 right now. Winds have gusted here to about 40 off and on. And now it's raining. Looking forward to my squall line tomorrow morning.
  11. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    What's 25 degrees over 100 miles among friends?
  12. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Obviously still a few days out but I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts markedly given time of year. Note that this is the higher-res Euro variant and not the main Op. Grain of salt may be pretty large on this one.
  13. Sunrise Pics 2018

    Now that sunrises will be respectably early to way too early for the next 4 months, time to post em
  14. ECMWF Upgrade 6/8 Will Include Lightning Predictions

    I've seen the cold bias in winter in situations with a polar trough or something like that where it overdid the 500 before easing out of it closer to the event. I wasn't aware that it was more than situational. I've felt that the Euro has a bit of an extreme bias on it at times. Worked for Sandy but hasn't elsewhere.
  15. BeerandWXTogether