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jmister last won the day on July 27 2018

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About jmister

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    Cherry Hill, NJ

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  1. 75/55 according to my weather station. May be running a bit warm but either way it's a beautiful day!
  2. Finally some snow mixing in the rain. 0.14" of precip. 35.2 I wonder how accurate the Wunderground p-type radar is. It seems pretty close based on the obs here.
  3. Trying really hard to find anything resembling snow, but so far no luck in Cherry Hill. Temperature down to 38.1 though. 0.06" precip so far.
  4. Temps are high here...too high for comfort. I'm thinking our only chance of accumulating snow is heavy rates after the sun goes down. Update 10:49am - 45.0F. Hoping that turns around quickly.
  5. Lol, I'm sure this is getting the NYC crowd in a tizzy.
  6. Saw about 10 seconds of blue-green flashing a little while ago.
  7. Reminder that if you're looking at the HRRR, you can see how it's doing regarding precip placement with my tool: You can see the HRRR (at least the 13z run) is doing pretty well in our region, but is lacking some precip down towards Eastern VA and has more precip than observed back in Ohio. More images/comparisons can be found here https://jmmweather.com/hrrr/
  8. Good flurries near the Cherry Hill Mall. Started up from nothing in a matter of seconds.
  9. Kind of off topic, but is technically an ob... Does anyone have an idea what's going on in the area near Trenton? It seems to have changed direction with wind as the squall line passed:
  10. Something to keep in mind as we figure out who is at risk for icing is that even for this little event today, the short range modeling was a few degrees too warm. Even a 6 hour forecast. As all of us have learned, models underestimate low level cold. At 12z today, PHL was 30. My wx station in Cherry Hill has 29.7 GFS: NAM:
  11. By hour 18 you can see the GFS is trending slightly slower (west) with all features at 500mb
  12. Not just front-end thump, but how about that coastal at the end! Not to mention the temps crash after 12z Sunday, so much of that "rain" is sleet/zr. Saved for posterity. May be the best run of the last several days even if it's from the ICON.
  13. Not hating the look of the NAM at 500mb. The northern portion of the trough is a little further west and just a bit more cut off from the northern branch. May not reflect much difference at the surface, but something to look at.
  14. Great, and bold, discussion by Gorse this morning: For Saturday and Sunday...A significant winter storm is increasing for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A split flow regime results in significant energy ejecting into the central and southern Plains while northern stream energy amplifies some across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes. The timing of the northern and southern systems will be key regarding the end results here in the East, as some guidance phases them and therefore the surface low tracks over or just west of our area. The track of the surface low will depend on where the baroclinic zone is placed and tightens, as arctic air will be pouring in on the backside of this storm. All of this will play havoc with not only the precipitation types but also amounts and therefore impacts. Thermal profiles at this point utilizing a multi-model blend has a mess of wintry precipitation for much of the region, however farther south and east a change to rain occurs for a time. The guidance continues to show a wealth of moisture accompanying this storm, therefore where it snows the amounts could be significant and there also could be a zone of icing. The potential for heavy rain, snow and mixed precipitation exists with this system. The signal for this storm remains high among the guidance, therefore the PoPs are in the likely to categorical range. As the surface low traverses our area Sunday, arctic air will begin to overspread our area from the west. Some guidance, most notably the GFS, hinting at precipitation lagging behind the arctic push as several ripples of low pressure track along the cold front and therefore throws moisture (snow) inland for a time. Not sold on this idea just jet, but something to monitor. Guidance suggesting a flash freeze potential Sunday afternoon and night as the arctic air pours in right behind the storm. A mention of this storm continues in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Based on model trends, you'd think this discussion is for CTP.
  15. I'm seeing 0.57" liquid equivalent snowfall on the 18z GEFS at PHL http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/Plumes.html You can play around and change sites, but it looks like the DC area is not much different than this. I guess P-type schemes may cause some discrepancies.
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