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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. Not sure on thermals but looks like ukmet has the anafront
  2. gefs increasing anafront potential this run. Would keep an eye on it, even though timing has to be just right. This is the type of setup that can produce one
  3. No I haven't, was trying to avoid it unless someone brought it up haha. Just seems like if you're 30% right it's a blessing. Just a crap shoot honestly for our area. One big storm can make or break it. I'll put something out by tomorrow night
  4. I just don't see where all this big cold is coming on gfs and gefs, I mean I know how it is because of the -epo, but does it make sense? we are currently going into a jet extension phase which usually doesn't loow for much amplification and more zonalish flow. Our MJO is headed to phase 3, while it does weaken we still have some weak forcing that travels through warm phases. Thats why I'm thinking this either goes into COD close to warm phases or it goes into warm phases but weak. All that just doesn't say sustained cold to me. Seems more like cold shot, then warm up, rinse repeat as the pacific flow should be moving along quickly with jet extension. I circled in black the mjo waves shown on Roundy's plot, while it weakens the forcing still carries on weakly
  5. We are slated in go into a jet extension which usually means tightening and acceleration of the pac jet
  6. Yea, thats your piece of energy you have to watch. Its comes on shore the pacific right before the pacific ridge builds. Need to time that just right with trough coming south. to slow and it goes out to sea, to fast and it's to warm.
  7. It's pretty clear to see why the gfs has a winter storm threat compared to the other models. It has 2 lobes of the tpv that swing through the lakes. That 2nd lobe of the tpv is what causes the confluence to give us the snow shot. Also, just look at the differences out in the pacific. Gfs builds this massive pna ridge into west/central Canada Euro keeps it flatter and offshore. Euro's tpv is all bundled and it moves in, than out rather quickly. As much as I would love for Barney to have an extended stay, gfs solutions seems extreme, though, not sure the euro is corrects with how fast it vacates everything. Still like wintry start over to rain
  8. Not much wintry appeal on eps this 0z run compared to 12z yesterday. There is actually more support for anafrontal wave mid next week this run.
  9. looking at the 10-15 day off the eps compared to 0z run last night, you can see the issues it is having in the north pacific. Just a complete flip to an ugly look in Alaska to -epo. These are very close to what the gefs were showing yesterday at 12z that didn't make sense to me. I still am not buying the trough in the east like that, that soon. I can see it after the 20th, but to me the pattern argues for it more in the plains and weatern lakes with us being on the gradient with the se ridge. Regardless though, if the eps from 12z are right thats a pretty decent look heading into Christmas and would offer chances at snow events. The mean trough over the eastern lakes would put the gradient offshore and not over top of us. The ridging going up into Alaska would supply cold air and an abundance of HP.
  10. I know we are far out, and it's prone to changes, but I don't think I have ever seen a change like this in the eps. Thats like a 20 degree temp spread between runs. The eps and probably all ensembles are having a difficult time with figuring out the pacific, especially the north pacific. Seems like most of the errors are around Alaska. Check this difference out over the plains, from warmth to brrr in one run all due to the changes in the north pacific
  11. That’s the storm I was talking about above for possible overrunning setup
  12. Way out in time, but I'm liking the period late next week into weekend for an overunning shot. As long as the low coming out of the plains isn't on roids going to chicago and we have a Gigi HP in place, it leaves the door open for a thump over to ice/rain. Still can't rule out the anafrontal wave mid next week but with the trough orientation shifting east IMO it's going to take the baroclinic zone east with it.
  13. yea, my first snow map was solid. Then with everything shifting west and we were inside 24grs, had to update, then I got lucy'd
  14. Yup, no 3-6 nyc, 2-4 philly, or accumulating snow in burbs
  15. Mulch is coated up in gilly. Would assume probably a .1 out of it but I don’t add .1 to snow totals lol
  16. .3 at work, looks like maybe .1 or so in gilly
  17. yea, nice coating on the greens here at work with dendrites falling
  18. It's remarkable how close we did come to a SSW. Zonal mean winds got below 10ms, if we would of had a good wave 2 with this wave 1 it would of done it. Also, the mjo stalling in phase probably didn't help
  19. You can try navigating through this and see what you find, still looks like it's descending https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html
  20. Monthly qbo number for Nov was 5.07, would really like to get this close to 0 or - for December to increase chances of blocking. As of now best matches are 04/05, 02/03,
  21. Yup, and that makes more sense to me than what was being shown yesterday. I think we will have chances for front end stuff on some of these but cutters are going to be prevalent. If the standing wave is really whats driving the pattern, then look back at the late sept-oct h5 setup and just broaden it more. You still deal with se ridge issues not a huge trough in the east like the gefs had.
  22. Glad to see the EPS came to my thinking with the cold shot next week being further east. Made no sense how far west it was bringing it into CONSUS with where the Aleutian low was.
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