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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. From Sam lillo, qbo is moving towards easterly phase in tandem with 78,95,02
  2. There were 3 main things IMO that killed last winter expectations wise. First being what I mentioned above. Going into last season we were thinking this may be a modoki or weak basin wide look to SST. The Niño was pretty strong at times basin wide as well as sometimes east base which I don’t think is as good for here. Second, we never really truly coupled the atmosphere with the Niño. Seemed like it was always out of whack. While we had Niño sst the SOI was very Niña like and strongly at times. Which brought a bout those -pna periods later in winter which isn’t Niño like. Tropical forcing wasn’t Niño like either. Seemed almost Niña to nada where it spent a decent time in warm phases for us but we did have some Niño like phases. Thirdly, the inability for the SSW to couple with the troposphere really killed middle to back half of winter. We lost greater chance of blocking combined with Niña like background state and it was kiss of death
  3. Yea that was def one thing that changed for the worse last winter. We started with a modoki look but it then went basin side to almost east base Niño for winter. This year has a better modoki look but have to see if it holds
  4. nothing like .4 radar estimates with only .03 actually falling in gilly
  5. The euro did the same with the hurricane around Labor Day. Went nuts on some rogue rain band while gfs was yawning
  6. I think we have a trend here. If inside 3 days and the euro is atleat 2 times wetter than the gfs which hasn’t missed a rain event it hasn’t loved, the euro is probably out to lunch.
  7. More bark than bite with this radar. Ageostropic flow advecting down drier air. Basically CAD setup. Decent lower level dry punch that is taking a bite out of what would normally be some heavy rain with those echoes.
  8. Looks like 6z euro cut back a good bit of qpf right on cue. More in line with gfs now
  9. Euro and eps still bullish on a good soaking tomorrow. Not sure if it’s out to lunch or not. Gfs doesn’t have nearly the coverage the euro has nor amounts. Ukmet has heaviest rain mainly west of town. Ggem looks like gfs. Thinking rain tomorrow but not as heavy as euro/eps depicting.
  10. personally, I think there is very little correlation with what you posted. We haven't had a legit -nao winter since what 09-10 or 10-11? So 9-10 years ago and I know for a fact every october hasn't had a -nao since then. Only one I really remember is the october Sandy hit. There may be others though. It may of been a good stat prior to 2000s, but present day seems like there isn't much correlation in my eyes.
  11. Wet euro run again. 2-5” over the area mainly from philly northeast. Backs the Friday system closer and really hammers sne and nyc area. We get a good rain from Wednesday meso low which is supported by eps
  12. Just a wee bit of an outlier. The 6z eps has a general 1.5-2" of rain from today through saturday morning with best chance on Wednesday then some on thursday
  13. Not sure this will get close enough to bring widespread heavy rain outside of some sort of tucked in meso low. But with with strong high to the north and if the low stays to the south it will bring a tight pressure gradient and onshore flow from several days if true. Cloudy skies and I would imagine periods of marine puke and possibly rain if a little meso low forms or not.
  14. That’s no excuse, you will shotgun beers or we chainsaw the figs
  15. Walmart has their Christmas stuff out already, thing of beauty
  16. I'm game, throw beers in the pot. Every birdie made, yoda shotguns a beer
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