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Posts posted by tombo82685

  1. Here’s my general thoughts on the wind aspect. Models are pez dispensing these winds way to much. I’m thinking 30-50 mph gusts standard. East of town where you have convection and can mix down winds aloft has better chance for higher and also down the shore. Why I’m not bullish like the models a) where is the frictional loss of wind as tropical system comes inland? b) philly on west has highest 850mb winds as 50-70mph take into consideration that you take Atleast 30-50% of the wind off due to lack of ability to mix downward west of center as sounding is very moist aloft, no dry air. Even east of town, they peak around 70-75mph you won’t fully mix down that wind either and if you do it’s with stronger convection. c) how are these models strengthening this storm while being over land? d) be careful of meso models and wind and well anything. Tropical system are convection, all convection. It’s like placing a bunch of bananas in front of gigi and telling him he can’t have one. Imo they will most likely overdo it more times than not. e) I saw Floyd was brought up with its winds. Floyd was a much stronger system than this storm ever was and a larger wind field. Floyd also tracked back over water not stayed on land the whole time. Also, Floyd had HP building in on the back side which allowed the back side to be windy due to pressure gradient and mixing out as drier air advected in. 

    • Like 3
    • Sad 1

  2. 10 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

    To finish off the pole beans, one has to assume that they started.

    It looks like Isaias is starting to leak just ever a bit right of the model track guidance.  The UKMET & GGEM have been way left at times, but this is the first time that the GFS has been too left. This edging would decrease the tornado threat for our area.  Not great for North Carolina.  Maybe not as bad as Mexico was with Hanna, but the Euro still looks a bit too landcaneish with its pressure and I don't get the impression this version has corrected its slow bias.

    Yea I'm def selling all the wind the euro has on it with a storm that has been over land since NC


  3. 11 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

    It is brutal out there today! Hate to see this moisture and instability (CAPE 3000!) go to waste... Don't see much convection for SEPA forecast on the HRRR, think we'll probably get suppressing subsidence from the activity to the north??

    No real trigger to ignite things. Displaced to far away imo

    • Like 1

  4. 22 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

    The sounding is robust, but I don't see anything to numerous, looks very isolated till you get further nw. Seems like main trigger will be late which helps for areas far nw as they get it earlier. 

    it's like mt holly reads this board. Exact same thoughts with the current AFD

    Otherwise, low pressure is forecast to continue moving across the 
    eastern Great Lakes and eventually into southern Quebec tonight. A 
    hot and humid airmass will be in place with a weak cold front to our 
    west. The higher temperatures and moisture will result in MLCAPE 
    values rising into the 2000 to 2500+ J/kg range in parts of our 
    region. This will especially be the case where cloud cover scatters 
    out more. As a result, some additional showers and thunderstorms are 
    expected to develop in the afternoon. The system moving across the 
    eastern Great Lakes will create a decent amount of shear in our 
    region, especially in our northwestern counties where bulk shear 
    looks to be 30-40 knots. Limiting factors though will be the lack of 
    forcing and a warm, dry layer near 700 mb. For this reason, storms 
    may tend to be more isolated to scattered so PoPs were lowered 
    slightly with this update. Best chances for storms still looks to be 
    over eastern PA, especially N/W of the I-95 corridor as these areas 
    will be closer to the front to our west. Any storms that occur will 
    have the potential to become severe with damaging winds being the 
    main threat. Large hail will be possible too though. 

  5. 3 minutes ago, iceman56 said:

    It should improve once it gets over the bath water of the GS on its way to NC.   And the water off NJ to LI is also anomalously warm.

    We are due for a Floyd-like event here.

    I don’t think it hits the waters off nj. Think once this goes inland in the Carolinas it stays inland as it gets picked up by southwest flow of the trough 

  6. 22 hours ago, FSU_Wxgirl said:

    Hey @tombo82685! My weather station is arriving today! (Super fast as I finally got around to ordering it yesterday!!)

    Next item that I'd like opinions on. I'm attaching images of my property from Google Earth as well as a few pictures that I took this morning from ground level. I have a lot of tall trees, especially in the back yard. So I'm thinking the back yard is out for installation. I have a few options in the front yard:

    Option A: There is a strip of grass between my driveway and my neighbors. This is probably the most open part of my property without obstructions. I would need to try and find property markers because I'm not 100% where the dividing line is. I'm also concerned with it being an "eye sore" although I think weather stations are pretty darn cool. I also don't want it to be a pain in the butt for cutting grass. My husband and the neighbor take turns cutting this strip of grass.

    Option B: My husband suggested installing it on our sand mound on the opposite side of our driveway. This is a little closer to the tree line but probably the second most open space on the property. I like this idea because I feel like it would be less of an "eye sore" from the road and with neighbors. My only concern is it being on a "hill". My thought was we could have the station posted about 4-5 ft as opposed to 6 ft.

    Does anything else stand out to you from my pictures? Would love to hear any other thoughts as I am probably going to make hubby install it while it's raining outside haha. (Also ignore the branch hanging from the tree. It's residual damage from the derecho!)

    Thanks all!





    Kim, why not just mount the system right where you septic tank area is. I see you have four poles marking the dimensions of it. So why not put it on one of those corners. Ypou already have to weed wack around those poles as is. Also looks like a good enough clearing to not effect rainfall

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