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tombo82685

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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. Also, look at the trend here, it's moving a bit towards the euro here. This is the gfs from 3 days ago, look how much it over did the trough. Now its' trending more towards separating the northern stream piece of energy. now we are at this so we will see if the euro moves towards linking the southern and northern stream energy or does the gfs go to the euro with cutting off the energy. The block in my eyes is to far north to really cause this to go under us. It may do so anyways if it remains weak and progressive, but I don't think it's because of the blocking to the north. That looks to be further north than the optimum spot
  2. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the gfs is wrong. Every other model looks like the euro with rain threat/sunday/monday
  3. Yup, mentioned that in winter thread how I don’t like the normal to below normal waters right on west coast. Argues for more trough being pulled back that way. In the sst you can see where the main ridge would form which would further enhance se ridging tendencies imo
  4. this def looks like a typical -epo cold dump out west then tries to bleed east and fights resistance from se ridge. Probably will become active wherever that boundary gets going out in OH valley or around here.
  5. lol, I'm not even sure what kind of a drunk I am anymore. Haven't been drunk since college.
  6. Yea still don’t think .7 will happen in philly but .1 looks to light. Maybe .25-.5 type thing in the metro area. Would of been a nice snow track in January
  7. Yea, it’s always tough this time of year, spring and summer with the shorter wavelengths. I mean you can get a stout west base block and still torch. Summer sucks
  8. looks like we are getting a bit of a can kick in the ensembles for the cold shot that was slated right around halloween. Seems like the outlooked +pna ridge has shifted a bit further offshore and is inbetween a -epo/+pna. So the cold dumps into the west/plains and pops a ridge inbto the east. I still do think this comes east, but may be in first week of November now.
  9. Gigi would be mad, I would be happy. I actually volunteered to stay home today and just meet you for the 19th hole if we couldn't get that 1 person paired with the other grouping changed. But alas, here i am
  10. Yea and if there is one, could be delayed till about 8 or so would be my guess with how late the sun gets goin this time of year
  11. Another model battle between gfs and euro for tomorrow. euro has about .3 qpf for philly or about 3 times wetter than the gfs. EPS mean is .7, so 7 times wetter than gfs. Only model with this much rain is the nam. I'm siding with the gfs here but with a little more qpf, but no where near .7. Would think around .1 or so
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