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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. Just going to make one thread for all this and put it in here
  2. Whats funny, the overall bias of the weeklies in general is warm. Not talking here, but just nationally. It has very hard time seeing cold past week 2
  3. Temps week 1 -2 week 2 -3 week 3 +1 week 4 0 week 5 +1 week 6 0 precip below normal
  4. week 1 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Flow from Canada, below normal hgts. Trough centered over Philly week 2 -nao/neutral epo/-ao/neutral pna. Split flow nino look. Below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border. Trough centered over Long Island week 3 -epo/-ao/neutral nao/neutral pna. split flow look. Above normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over lake Mich. Little bit of a se ridge week 4 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Split flow look. Normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit. week 5 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. above normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit. Little bit of a se ridge look week 6 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit. Big cold signal spreading into N plains and OH valley and comes east Again, not a bad weekly run at all. Nothing torch-like nor brutal cold showing up. Pretty seasonable looking. A lot of high lat blocking continues on the weeklies. Not so much nao region but in Alaska and across the pole.
  5. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Bradford, just being Bradford
  6. GEFS also showing wave 2 hit on strat. Looks like that hit is what brings in that cold shot for later in the weekend early next week
  7. Out in la la land, but thats some serious warming across the pole in the strat again on the euro op
  8. Gonna be interesting to see euro weeklies tonight. End of EPS run still pretty good -ao look. -nao wanes though as the Tropospheric PV gets close to Greenland
  9. What are your thoughts when you see this show up
  10. Another winter cancel run?
  11. Yea gonna need pacific help. Nao hadn't done much really imo. Displayed to far north. AO had helped displace coldest anoms in mid Lats
  12. Makes sense then why feb is usually warmest month?
  13. Some big warming in enso 1.2 this week while 3.4 had a big drop off. They are now equal in terms of temps. Not sure it's an east base still right now
  14. Here comes Barney again, hopefully it materializes and doesn't fall short
  15. November 18th-19th Wind & Temp Obs

    Flakes flying in gilly
  16. November 18th-19th Wind & Temp Obs

    You most likely went well over 40 then i would imagine
  17. Potential winter storm threats

    NAO definitely didn't trend favorable at all with this as it shifted further north. Now just looks like an west to east storm riding through southern Canada. Could be some snow showers behind it though with a solid CAA push
  18. I mentioned this a couple days ago but watch the period around Thanksgiving. This is a pretty solid setup here on the gefs.
  19. Not a ton of change in EPS run today. Very nino look with split flow, ridging into AK, trough in southwest. Se ridge comes alive but is also met with a PV close to Hudson Bay area. So you get a very compressed flow right over or just to our north. Could get lucky if we can minimize the se ridge look, because I think it will be pretty stormy in that timeframe with energy spitting out of the Southwest. I'd rather be in Detroit area to Burlington though.