Just looking at the ensembles here, They all agree on the split flow. The pacific h5 look on the geps and eps support a trough in the plains/rockies with some se ridging into the east. The main ridge axis on those models is off the west coast, not good for the east. This is a direct result of where the trough is in the north pacific, it's not over the Aleutians but it's more dateline centered and not that amplified. So the trough into the southwest makes sense from an h5 look plus with the flatter trough look in the north pacific it creates more zonal flow. The gefs are the coldest looking, with a bit more favorable pacific look. The trough in the pacific is a bit further east and more amplified than the other two. This really pumps the ridge up into northern canada and into Alaska, so we get a solid cold air source. What it really comes down to is the -nao. The gefs and geps are bullish on this which is probably the main reason for the lower hgts in the east. Combine the -nao and +pna look on the gefs and yea that would be a cold stormy extended look. The geps are below normal, but they aren't as good with the pacific, flatter flow. So airmass is more pacific oriented and most of the cold air would dump to our west. The eps are the warmest of the guidance, no torch but not cold. They have no -nao, pacific pattern is very flat and zonal. IMO, the -nao is the wild card here, I'm not good enough to determine whether that is legit or not. ONce we get inside 7 days and it's there on all ensembles then we can say yea this happening. The nao is what holds the cards, if we get that then we get a cross between the geps and gefs. If the -nao isn't it's eps all the way. They make the most sense mjo wise. Just like last night I discounted them because of the deep trough they had and well they went towards my thoughts. By Thanksgiving we should be getting close to phase 2 of the mjo. Since we are like 3 days from December it would probably be best to use the December composites. Both phase 2 and 3 for December support are trough in the west, more so 3 than 2. So if the -nao fails to materializes the eps pattern would be my opinion where we go from Thanksgiving into December.