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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. Unlike in Dec though, it should move through warm phases rather quickly. We still do get some amplitude into 4-6, then it looks like it either goes weakly into 7 or just goes COD. I'm not sure which is going to win out in terms of mjo or strat. The way the ens are moving towards in days 12-15, granted way out in lala land it looks like the same as we had in dec when it went into 5
  2. Yea and I think that could also be contributed to how the sst evolved this season in nino region. We really lost all the warming where we wanted it. That has to have some sort of affect on tropical convection.
  3. Thats a heck of an arctic intrusion on the eps for like 3 days straight centered around the start of feb. Swings the tpv right through the lakes.
  4. No, usually threats outside day 7 don't materialize. It's usually the stuff around day 5 or inside that just pop up that verify. I was just merely stating above that jan 29 has a miller b look but it's warm because of the lakes low.
  5. This is what I mean, look at how much different the 18z gfs is compared to 12z. 12z gfs matches the other models with not digging that tpv energy into Maine, it's around southern hudson bay, then moves northeast. With it moving northeast it allows a e ridge to build in response of the digging s/w in the plains. That causes the northern stream energy to cut west of us. Now if you look at 18z gfs it drives that tpv feature way south into new england and then moves it east northeast. This then limits the se ridge building and prevents that follow up wave from cutting. Thats why I'm saying I would toss that run of the gfs until something else shows the tpv diving that far south into new england
  6. eeee that looks like a bogus 18z gfs run. Look at the handling of the tpv up north it is virtually a 180 from 12z. I'm highly skeptical of that run. The piece of the tpv goes from southern hudson bay at 12z to over maine as it blows a storm up there at 18z. With that there it then forces that 2nd system way south. You remove that tpv energy from maine and it's back to cutting to the west.
  7. There is good support for a miller b setup on the eps on Jan 29th but it looks warm. To much lakes low mucking the bndry up.
  8. Yea but you have a massive trough coming right down the west coast which will pump the se ridge as the tpv is moving out
  9. not sure I agree with that, but it will be different by 0z
  10. Silly to throw white towel on something 6/7 days away
  11. Being over 144hrs out probably not. I would think by thurs you should
  12. Yea just all the s/w's running around it's going to be tough to phase something fully. Plus you don't really have anything to slow it down blocking wise. Even if it does phase, I dunno if it would be even cold enough for snow with how the WAR would have to build in to get a storm. Then if it waits later like tues period you have to start worrying about lakes lows possibly.
  13. Yup and that is what I was alluding to yesterday with how the trough is oriented with the neg tilt. Brings the WAR back into the area as well as warmer temps. It's not a frequent look we see with a full latitude trough but the way it has to be positioned to get a storm up is less than ideal.
  14. I'm sick of seeing all these northern stream lows rotating around the tpv. Everytime you have a southern low there is always something in the lakes messing up the BL
  15. Wanted to make a new thread for this since the other was way to long.
  16. tombo82685

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    week 1 -2 week 2 -5 week 3 -5 week 4 -1 week 5 -2 week 6 -1
  17. I disagree, I don't think the tpv position is playing a role in squashing this or anything. Its the pieces of energy that are rotating around it are the key features. The 0z euro from last night was completely different than the fv3 and was much further north but it phased a northern stream feature with the southern stream and that is what did it. This past run the southern stream dragged it heals and thus you didn't get a phase. ALso, why are you putting percentages on a storm thats still 7 days away maybe even 8
  18. ens battle 12z gefs 12z eps
  19. tombo82685

    CFS, JMA, EURO, GGEM weeklies thread

    week 1 neutral pna/-epo/neutral nao/neutral ao. Normal hgts, stuck between big trough over lakes and WAR. flow from Canada week 2 +pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Below normal hgts, flow from canada week 3 +epo/+pna/-ao/-ena0. Normal hgts, flow from canada week 4 -enao/+pna/-ao/+epo. Below normal hgts, flow from canada week 5 -enao/+pna/-ao/-epo. Below normal hgts, flow from canada week 6 -enao/+pna/-ao/-epo. Below normal hgts, flow from canada
  20. 2" on the mean for the city in the day 7-10 timeframe. More further nw. The qpf mean is .6 or so. Could be some very amped up members skewing it or what not. Won't know till the indiv comes out that I usually view. The whole thing shifted southeast the mean do to lack of northern stream involvement. Once to days 8-10 you start getting the other system involved.
  21. yea and I'm wondering if that is because of how the sst changed during the season
  22. tombo82685

    WXSIM Weather Simulator Forecasts

    My apologies then Paul. i saw that 3-5" for saturday night then saw snow and ice and figured that was the amount it was forecasting.
  23. eps lows. As you can imagine, they backed off on the northern stream involvement and thus gave a colder flatter look. Still a good signal, but gotta watch out for the low coming in from the west. There is also some timing differences as there are lows from day 6 to day 9 depending on which northern stream s/w tries to phase or doesn't