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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The only way this happens is the 50/50 low squashing the hgts along the coast. The 0z run that low was much closer and less of a ridge also helped too. Regardless if this doesn’t work I think we have chances right through to mid month
  2. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Track does matter because what closes off is the s/w associated with the low pressure. Those ridges and troughs and 50/50 low placement will all determine that
  3. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Also, if you get that system underneath you for March 2nd I would say a high chance it is a snow event. That would mean you have a strong block to your northeast.
  4. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    For the system around March 2nd Yea cold air could be an issue. That’s why you need the right track. After that though, assuming ensembles are correct you will have the cold air. Also, with that block in January you probably would be in a suppressive pattern
  5. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    This is off one of the hits on the eps members. But you can see the low gets to about our latitude out west, but due to the ocean low backing southwest over the atlantic, that block forces the low out west to move under us
  6. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    The ridge isn't good, but you can make it work if you can properly place the 50/50 to the north. So then you get a low to chicago or so then bring it southeast as it feels the influence of the 50/50 low. Just look at how the euro handled it last night. You amplify the low a bit more and relax the flow from the 50/50 low and you have a snow storm
  7. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Yea on the cmc that northern low compresses the flow to much and causes that southern low to scoot right out.
  8. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Thats why it's dependent on how strong and where that ridge forms and where the 50/50 low forms, like I said early. It's not a slam dunk look. It can happen though if things fall right.
  9. eps still locked in to below normal hgts from March 2nd to end of run. Highs in the low to mid 40s on the means
  10. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Looking at the eps individuals, going to come down to where that ridge placement is in the plains and how strong that is. The storm will most likely be shunted southeast at some point around the block in the Atlantic. Question becomes how much latitude it gains before so as it will work around periphery of ridge and atlantic block.
  11. Nice cold flow right there for Smarch
  12. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    eps still have a good signal in that March 2nd-4th period
  13. Temperature/Obs/Boring Weather Discussion

    Wouldn't shock me
  14. euro 2/21 0z: .13 2/21 12z: .07 2/22 0z: .2 eps 2/21 0z:.28 2/21 12z: .25 2/22 0z: .2
  15. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    There is tons of potential in this pattern. Does that mean it’s a lock for snow, no not at all. But the odds for something big are certainly higher than normal in this type of pattern.
  16. I was stopping them at 0z fri that’s when eps kind of looked like it needed. So I’ll go from that pt on
  17. Eps start below normal hgts March 2nd and continue right through end of run. 2m raw temp highs on them are about 5 degrees below normal with low to mid 40s for highs.
  18. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    Exactly, the warm look is because you are getting wide ranging solutions. So if you half the members showing 33 and snow while the other half are 50 and rain, then the mean will be low 40s and warm looking. Better to look at over h5 look and what each of the members are showing and how they get there.
  19. Potential Winter Storm Threats II

    EPS still hitting the March 3rd timeframe pretty good.
  20. Lol I actually just through that number out there, didn't realize it could of been my high for the day in Celsius. 71 here though